The longer the war in Ukraine continues, the more its adverse effects will be felt not only in Europe, but also in the Middle East and North Africa, especially in the region’s already fragile countries, such as Syria, Lebanon and Yemen. The Ukraine crisis threatens to endanger these states’ food security. The undisputed fact is that there is no country immune to being affected by significant events, revolutions and wars, no matter where they occur. Human Rights Watch reported in March that “on March 9, 2022, Ukraine banned exports of grain and other food products to prevent a domestic humanitarian crisis. Even if these supply chain disruptions are resolved soon, the problems would most likely persist because farmers are fleeing the fighting, and the conflict is destroying infrastructure and equipment. The war could also gravely diminish the coming harvest, particularly if it continues into the start of the planting season in April.” In addition to all the financial troubles Lebanon has suffered, this crisis has added insult to injury. Beirut continues its official warnings of an upcoming severe shortage of wheat. The country imports 600,000 tons of wheat every year, an average of 50,000 tons per month, with 60 percent of these imports coming from Ukraine and about 20 percent from Russia and Romania. Lebanon cannot store vast quantities of wheat within its territory. The port of Beirut used to house enormous silos, but the August 2020 explosion destroyed these along with its stock. Several countries could substitute Ukrainian wheat, including the US, Canada, Australia, Romania and Bulgaria, but that would not come cheap. “The prices of food commodities will rise in Lebanon, meaning that citizens will incur additional burdens on them amid a significant decrease in their purchasing power with the collapse of the Lebanese lira,” Hani Bohsali, head of the Syndicate of Food Importers in Lebanon, told a news agency. To stop the exacerbation of the hunger crisis, governments in the region should immediately take drastic measures. Dalia Al-Aqidi The situation in neighboring Syria is different. The close ties between Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Syrian counterpart Bashar Assad will worsen Syria’s humanitarian and economic crises. Moscow has established a significant foothold in Syria since 2015. While it has made itself a key party to any path that leads to a political solution, it has spread militarily in many areas of the country. Therefore, the sanctions imposed by the US and its allies that targeted the Russian financial and economic sector will have repercussions for the Assad regime. As soon as the Russian invasion of Ukraine began, the price of goods and food gradually increased in the Syrian markets. The matter quickly developed into shortages of some vital food commodities. Another war-torn country in the region that is facing famine is Yemen. In mid-March, the UN World Food Program issued a report stating that 17.4 million Yemenis are in need of immediate assistance, with an expectation that this would rise to 19 million by the end of this year. Although Egypt is stable politically and economically, it faces a big food crisis. It is the world’s top importer of wheat and 85 percent of its supplies come from Russia and Ukraine. The director of the Carnegie Middle East Program, Amr Hamzawy, wrote that the Egyptian government should use more financial resources to secure wheat supplies and avoid threats to the country’s food security due to high inflation. “The recent government announcement to expand wheat cultivation to 2 million acres by the end of 2024 is a viable medium-term strategy to bolster Egypt’s food security. It does not, however, ease the population’s immediate vulnerability resulting from the Ukraine war,” Hamzawy said. The food crisis has been spreading throughout the MENA region. Tunisia, for example, is no different since it imports more than 60 percent of its grain from Ukraine and Russia, which has led to a rise in prices. Although the Ministry of Agriculture has reached agreements to import grain from France, South America and the US, the cost will be higher since the already high price of shipping has been raised by 10 percent. Under international human rights law, everyone has the right to access sufficient and adequate food to live a healthy and active life. To stop the exacerbation of the MENA hunger crisis, governments in the region should immediately take drastic measures to protect that right. We should remember that more than 51 million people, including children, are suffering from hunger. Arab governments need to overcome their political differences and work together on a regional program to provide safe and healthy food for about 400 million people. If there is a will and determination, there will be a solution. Dalia Al-Aqidi is a senior fellow at the Center for Security Policy. Twitter: @DaliaAlAqidi
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