The Black Sea is central to global food security. The region is responsible for the overwhelming majority of the production and export of cereals and cooking oils. No part of the world is more exposed to threats to this supply than the Middle East and North Africa, which relies on Russia and Ukraine for more than half of its needs. In many countries in the region, such as Egypt and Lebanon, the proportion is much higher. This week, Turkish-brokered talks with Russia on a resumption of grain exports through the Bosphorus stalled, with the result that an important opportunity to alleviate the commodity crisis and prevent starvation and popular unrest could be lost. Mutual mistrust and conflicting agendas will continue to hold up urgent food deliveries as the consequences of the conflict in Ukraine reach ever farther. Previously, Ukraine shipped more than 50 percent of its grain exports from its main Black Sea port in Odessa. Since February, the loading cranes have been stationary, with the port blockaded by Russia’s fleet in the Black Sea and the coast mined by the Ukrainian armed forces. The stalemate has had a significant effect on global food security. According to the UN Food and Agriculture Organization, 20 million tons of grain destined for global markets are stuck in Ukraine, with storage silos at capacity. Last week, Chad — its grain reserves exhausted — declared a food emergency. In Egypt, 300,000 tons of paid-for grain remains undelivered, putting great pressure on a state that subsidizes the cost of 270 millions loaves of bread each day. The Ukrainian government estimates that about 22 million tons of food products — including wheat, corn, barley and sunflower seeds, a key source of vegetable oil — remain stranded in ports. This backlog has created chronic supply crunches and steep price increases that are already being felt around the world, nowhere more so than in the Arab world. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has stated that up to 1.6 billion people will be affected worldwide. The war “threatens to unleash an unprecedented wave of hunger and misery, leaving social and economic chaos in its wake,” he warned. Central to resolving this crisis will be an agreement for grain exports via the Black Sea. Though 80 percent of Ukraine’s farmland remains under the nation’s control, Russia has seized most of its coastline and blockaded the remainder with a fleet of at least 20 vessels, including four submarines. Ukraine, meanwhile, has deployed sea mines to prevent the further loss of any ports but this means exports are impossible. Though barges on the Danube and land routes allow some measure of Ukrainian exports to continue, it is a mere trickle in comparison to what is required. At land borders, there are queues up to 16 miles long as a result of convoluted EU import procedures. Along the main rail-transport routes, the average waiting time at borders to change wagons is 16 days but it can take up to 30. Mutual mistrust and conflicting agendas will continue to hold up urgent food deliveries as the consequences of the conflict in Ukraine reach ever farther. Zaid M. Belbagi Before the war, 90 percent of Ukrainian exports left via the Black Sea and this remains the only feasible route if a wider commodities catastrophe is to be avoided. Russia has effectively agreed to a transport “corridor” for grain exports from Ukraine, offering to withdraw its navy to allow shipments to depart from Odessa and Mariupol in return for a suspension of international sanctions, but there are many stumbling blocks to overcome before Kyiv can get on board with this. Meanwhile, the global wheat shortage is growing more and more urgent. The talks in Ankara last week highlighted the challenges facing efforts to reach a solution, with the Turkish attempt to negotiate safe passage for the grain stuck in Black Sea ports meeting resistance as Ukraine and Russia failed to reach agreement. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has said that the onus is on Ukraine to remove the mines from its ports as a precondition for safe shipping. Though the Ukrainian government has legitimate concerns about the Russian sea blockade, no international insurer will underwrite cargo passing through minefields. This issue therefore remains central to ending the impasse. Though Turkey’s involvement in the talks is in keeping with its decision after the war began, under the Montreux Convention, to close its straits to military shipping, its role, much like those of Russia and Ukraine, is based firmly in its own foreign policy concerns. Mindful of its plans to push a further 30 km into Syria to establish a demilitarized zone around its border with Kurdish regions, Ankara must have Russia on its side. As the only NATO member that shares a border with both Russia and Ukraine, Turkey has been keen to show it is working to mediate the conflict. However, its position remains deliberately ambiguous as it has supported Kyiv but refused to impose sanctions on Moscow. In now attempting to help secure grain exports, it seeks to achieve a diplomatic coup in its relations with the West without antagonizing the Russians before Ankara’s major push in Syria. According to Yoruk Isik of the Bosphorus Observer: “Russia won’t gift Turkey this diplomatic coup without getting something in return. Only a united front, by all international players, will force Russia’s hand into finding a solution.” A combined effort is indeed required to find a solution to the crisis. Any export of Ukrainian grain will not only require an international escort but also multilateral efforts to remove mines from the area. The war has disrupted grain exports needed to feed some of the planet’s most vulnerable people. Should the situation continue, last year’s harvest will rot and this year’s will be greatly compromised. The importance of international cooperation was highlighted all-too clearly during the COVID-19 pandemic; the international community must now show it has learned the lessons from that and start cooperating to avert mass starvation. • Zaid M. Belbagi is a political commentator and an adviser to private clients between London and the GCC. Twitter: @Moulay_Zaid Disclaimer: Views expressed by writers in this section are their own and do not necessarily reflect Arab News" point of view