When US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan announced at the White House last week that the Biden administration had information that Iran was sending to Russia “up to several hundred” drones, including “weapons-capable UAVs,” or unmanned aerial vehicles, no reply or comments were issued from either Moscow or Tehran. Sullivan did not give any explanation as to how such military cooperation is taking place between Iran and Russia during the Russian-Ukrainian War. However, two very insightful and interesting analyses have thrown light on the reasons for this cooperation. They also show the history of Russia’s use of military drones. In addition, they make predictions on how the war will develop. Overall, Russia’s potential use of Iranian-procured drones could be advantageous in its fight against Ukraine. One article was written in Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty. It quoted Jeremy Binnie, a Middle East defense specialist at the global intelligence company Janes. He said: “Russia is probably interested because the Iranians have developed UAVs that extensively use commercial off-the-shelf components, making them cheap, that have been acquired despite extensive sanctions.” He added: “So, it has already developed clandestine supply chains that enable it to produce inexpensive long-range guided weapons, something the Russians could potentially take advantage of as they struggle to obtain foreign-made, high-tech components for their more sophisticated weapons.” He also noted Russia is relying on “less sophisticated models, not ones that enable controllers on the ground to engage dynamic targets with guided weapons.” This means Russia will have a cruder power employment policy in the next few days of the war. It also implies that there will be a lot of collateral damage as a result of the new targeting policy by the Russian military and political command. Another development Sullivan failed to mention is that the Russians now have a better understanding of how Ukraine has been using its drones to defeat many of its military assaults since the invasion began in late February. Coupled with this discovery is the strengthening of Russia’s air defense against Ukrainian drones. The magazine Business Insider stated that Ukraine received 50 TB2 drones from Turkish arms company Baykar of the type known as Bayraktar. However, it seems that Ukraine is now less reliant on the use of drones to counter Russia. The article quoted Mark Cancian, an analyst at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, who said: “Ukrainian pilots I have talked with say the role of drones is now limited.” Russia is enhancing its air defense capabilities to stymie any drone attacks by Ukraine. Maria Maalouf Meanwhile, two further views confirm that Russia is enhancing its air defense capabilities to stymie any drone attacks by Ukraine. Cancian is quoted again, stipulating that: “Drones were able to play such a role because the Russians were slow to set up an air defense system. They were slow to establish the combined arms operation (armor, infantry, artillery, recon, engineers, air defense) that their doctrine called for.” Additionally, the same article quoted Samuel Bendett, an analyst and expert in unmanned and robotic military systems at the Center for Naval Analyses, who said: “We’re going to see drones on the Russian side assuming probably even more importance going forward, assuming that the war continues as it is right now.” Bendett added: “(Russia) is trying to trap Ukrainians in pockets around certain cities and towns and just trying to push and grind the Ukrainian defenses in general. Drones are playing a key part in providing intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance capabilities back to the Russians so that they can conduct strikes from the ground and the air.” The problem is that Sullivan did not mention these important strategic developments in relation to the decision by Iran to supply Russia with drones to be used against Ukraine. A more serious development is Ukraine’s reported plan to buy American-made drones. Kyiv may get General Atomics MQ-1C Gray Eagle armed drones. They have better technology than the Turkish drones. This could turn the conflict in Ukraine into a proxy armed military strife between Washington and Tehran. The war is expanding and there is no route to an armistice in sight. One likely utilization of the Iranian-made drones by Russia is to let them hit the weapons recently given to Ukraine. An example is how Czech-made Mi-24 assault helicopters are currently hitting Russian targets. Most likely, Moscow will launch drones against these helicopters. Finally, the use of drones is about the execution of successful military missions with a great deal of precision. Now that Iran is a partner with Russia in the war against Ukraine, the ayatollahs will inflame more hatred toward the US by portraying the conflict as a defeat of American-made weapons at the hands of Iranian-manufactured drones. Another consequence could be future developments in America’s war doctrine based on how its military drones perform against the Iranian ones. This is not good because it makes the US vulnerable to Tehran’s vicious propaganda machine. It is a must that the White House submit to the media and the public more details about any Iranian drones being used by Russia to destroy American weapons commanded by the Ukrainians. • Maria Maalouf is a Lebanese journalist, broadcaster, publisher and writer. She has a master’s degree in political sociology from the University of Lyon. Twitter: @bilarakib