OBR: we offered to update forecasts in time for "mini-budget" The Office of Budget Responsibility has confirmed that it could have produced an economic forecast in time for the “mini-budget”, but was not asked to do so by Kwasi Kwarteng. It adds further details to ongoing objections that the chancellor’s move, which included £45bn of tax cuts, without a clear economic forecast to back it up. In a letter to the Scottish National Party’s Westminster leader Ian Blackford and the party’s shadow chancellor Alison Thewliss, the chair of the OBR confirmed that the body sent “a draft economic and fiscal forecast to the new chancellor on 6 September, his first day in office”. Richard Hughes wrote: “We offered, at the time, to update that forecast to take account of subsequent data and to reflect the economic and fiscal impact of any policies the government announced in time for it to be published alongside the ‘fiscal event’.” “In the event, we were not commissioned to produce an updated forecast alongside the Chancellor’s Growth Plan on 23 September, although we would have been in a position to do so to a standard that satisfied the legal requirements of the Charter for Budget Responsibility.” A summary of today"s developments The Office of Budget Responsibility has confirmed it could have produced an economic forecast in time for the “mini-budget”, but was not asked to do so by Kwasi Kwarteng. It adds further details to ongoing objections that the chancellor’s move, which included £45bn of tax cuts, without a clear economic forecast to back it up. Liz Truss will now attend a meeting of the European Political Community (EPC) meeting in Prague in October, according to PA Media. It is understood the prime minister wanted to attend because energy and migration, both items on the agenda of the meeting, are two of her priorities and that she sees the need to work with other European leaders to resolve the issues. The move to attend the meeting of the group – French president Emmanuel Macron’s scheme to bring together EU nations and countries outside the bloc – will raise eyebrows given Truss’s explicit scepticism about the project only a few months ago as foreign secretary. A YouGov poll for the Times gives Labour a 33-point lead over the Conservatives, understood to be the biggest gap recorded since the late 1990s. Mel Stride, the Conservative chair of the Commons, has written an open letter to the chancellor, Kwasi Kwarteng. Stride asks Kwarteng to bring forward the publication of the medium-term fiscal plan, and the OBR’s new forecast, which are both due on 23 November. Stride says the chancellor contributed to the recent turmoil in the markets by refusing to publish an OBR forecast alongside his mini-budget. The NASUWT has given a formal dispute notice to the Department for Education and other employers over its demand for a 12% pay rise for teachers, with the threat of a strike ballot if that is not met. Liz Truss repeatedly suggested that the “international situation” was primarily responsible for the economic turmoil in the UK markets. But in a speech tonight, Huw Pill, chief economist at the Bank of England, will stress that the mini-budget is a factor, too. Kwasi Kwarteng heightened speculation that benefits won’t be uprated in line with inflation. Asked if he would honour the commitment of the previous government, he said: “We are talking about helping people in the round. It is premature for me to come to a decision on that. But we are absolutely focused on making sure that the most vulnerable in our society are protected through what could be a challenging time.” Labour claimed that Liz Truss “made this disastrous situation even worse” with her BBC local radio interview round this morning. Rachel Reeves, the shadow chancellor, also urged Tory MPs to join Labour and other opposition parties in calling for parliament to be recalled Ed Davey, the Lib Dem leader, renewed his call for the Conservative party conference to be cancelled so that parliament can be recalled. Ian Blackford MP, the SNP’s Westminster leader, called it “utterly damning” that the government failed to commission a forecast from the OBR. He said: “The revelation that the OBR offered to provide a forecast to the Chancellor to go alongside his fiscal statement last week, but that it was not commissioned by the Tory government is utterly damning. “This is in spite of the OBR confirming that it was in a position to produce an updated forecast that satisfied the legal requirements of the Charter for Budget Responsibility. “Over the past week we have witnessed the devastating impact of the Tory budget, hitting people’s mortgages, putting pensions at risk, and hammering household budgets. “The Prime Minister and Chancellor cannot keep ducking accountability. They must set out why they did not commission economic forecasts from the OBR to accompany their disastrous budget, and they must recall Parliament urgently and reverse their reckless plans.” OBR: we offered to update forecasts in time for "mini-budget" The Office of Budget Responsibility has confirmed that it could have produced an economic forecast in time for the “mini-budget”, but was not asked to do so by Kwasi Kwarteng. It adds further details to ongoing objections that the chancellor’s move, which included £45bn of tax cuts, without a clear economic forecast to back it up. In a letter to the Scottish National Party’s Westminster leader Ian Blackford and the party’s shadow chancellor Alison Thewliss, the chair of the OBR confirmed that the body sent “a draft economic and fiscal forecast to the new chancellor on 6 September, his first day in office”. Richard Hughes wrote: “We offered, at the time, to update that forecast to take account of subsequent data and to reflect the economic and fiscal impact of any policies the government announced in time for it to be published alongside the ‘fiscal event’.” “In the event, we were not commissioned to produce an updated forecast alongside the Chancellor’s Growth Plan on 23 September, although we would have been in a position to do so to a standard that satisfied the legal requirements of the Charter for Budget Responsibility.” Truss "will attend Macron"s European Political Community meeting next month" Liz Truss will now attend a meeting of the European Political Community (EPC) meeting in Prague in October, according to PA Media. It is understood that the prime minister wanted to attend because energy and migration, both items on the agenda of the meeting, are two of her priorities and that she sees the need to work with other European leaders to resolve the issues. The move to attend the meeting of the group – French president Emmanuel Macron’s scheme to bring together EU nations and countries outside the bloc – will raise eyebrows given Truss’s explicit scepticism about the project only a few months ago as foreign secretary. The decision to attend comes with the EU and the UK still deadlocked over the Northern Ireland protocol, with the government’s plan to rip up the post-Brexit arrangements in the region causing major ill feeling between London and Brussels. Truss is seeking to strike a rapport with European leaders including European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen and Macron after meeting the pair at a UN summit in New York. It comes after Truss courted controversy during the Tory leadership contest by answering “the jury’s out” on whether Macron was “friend or foe”. As foreign secretary in June, she also said she did not “buy into” a Europe-wide political community. Thérèse Coffey is ditching the government’s long-promised white paper on health inequalities, despite the 19-year gap in life expectancy between rich and poor, the Guardian has been told. The health secretary has decided to not publish a document that was due to set out plans to address the stark inequalities in health that the Covid-19 pandemic exposed. It was meant to appear by last spring and be a key part of then prime minister Boris Johnson’s declared mission to level up Britain. It was due to set out “bold action” to narrow the wide inequalities in health outcomes that exist between deprived and well-off areas, between white and BAME populations, and between the north and south of England. Sir Craig Oliver, David Cameron’s former director of politics and communications, told The News Agents podcast the government was under “enormous pressure” ahead of the Conservative party conference. “I think the fewer MPs you have at conference, probably the better for her [Truss] because they’re not going to find their way in front of microphones.” Sir Charles Walker, a Conservative MP, ruled out any immediate leadership challenge to Liz Truss but was highly critical of the approach taken by the government in recent days. Appearing on Channel 4 News, he admitted that his party would likely lose an election if it was called. “We’ve made our bed, we’ve got to lie in it,” he said. “Overall, the statement doesn’t seem to make a lot of sense both to markets and members of parliament. The government needs to recognise that. “It can’t go blaming journalists for not understanding it, it can’t go blaming what’s going on in the world for the way it has been received. “It has been received in the way it has been received, because people just didn’t think it added up.” Polling expert and former strategy director to former prime minister David Cameron, Andrew Cooper, gave his reaction to Liz Truss’s local radio interviews in this evening’s episode of The News Agents podcast. Lord Cooper told presenters Emily Maitlis and Jon Sopel: “If your starting position is basically to tell a lie, to pretend that something which clearly happened and has clearly gone wrong and clearly wasn’t part of the plan, and to say that hasn’t happened, you know, you’re on incredibly thin ice. “That’s a terrible strategy for managing a difficult situation.” Ed Vaizey has been on LBC’s Tonight with Andrew Marr. Marr asked: You [Tories] are deep, deep in the doo-dah, aren’t you? Lord Vaizey replied: “I think that’s fair to say. I think the situation is suboptimal, I think is probably the phrase that I’m searching for. “It has been obviously a disastrous few days for the government. “I mean, I was pleased, obviously, see the dollar-pound ratio changing, so the pound is now strengthening again. “And we’re in an appalling position. There are no good choices here. “It’s quite clear that Liz Truss and Kwazi Kwarteng cannot back down, so a U-turn now will be for them politically disastrous and effectively signing a death warrant for them. But at the same time, what else do they do?” Liz Truss is continuing to stand by last week’s mini-budget but says she understands that people are facing “difficult times” and the UK is in a “very serious situation.” In a series of TV interviews with political editors from the BBC’s nations and regions, the prime minister repeatedly blamed the recent turmoil in the financial markets on “global” factors caused by the war in Ukraine. Tim Iredale, political editor for Yorkshire and Lincolnshire, put it to her that she seemed to be saying, “crisis, what crisis?”. “I’m not saying that at all”, she replied. “I think we’re in a very serious situation. It’s a global crisis which has been brought about by the aftermath of Covid, and Putin’s war in Ukraine.” Asked by the Midlands political editor, Elizabeth Glinka, about interest rate rises affecting mortgages, Truss said, “Look, I understand. It’s difficult times for people and we’re facing a difficult winter.” “We’re working very closely with the Bank of England to deal with the situation”, she told Points West’s David Garmston. Liz Truss has said she has encouraged all parties in Northern Ireland to get back into devolved government. “I’m very clear that I want to see all parties part of the assembly and the executive,” she told BBC Northern Ireland. “I have made it clear to everybody I’ve spoken to that I want to see the executive and the assembly operating. The people of Northern Ireland need a government. “What I’m about is making sure we restore the primacy of the Belfast/Good Friday Agreement, that’s what’s important – that we are treating both communities in Northern Ireland fairly. “So that means having free flowing east west trade, as well as free-flowing north-south trade. It means making sure that the people of Northern Ireland can benefit from the same tax benefits as the people of Great Britain. So, these are fundamental principles that we need to fix in order to resolve the situation in Northern Ireland. “I’m determined to fix those. We put through the Northern Ireland protocol bill to fix those problems. I’m very clear that I’m open to negotiate a solution, provided it fixes the problems that we’ve identified.”