Almost ten months into Russia’s invasion of Ukraine approaching, everyone is wondering; where is this war taking us? Is there an end to this conflict that has impacted the entire world? Others are asking themselves whether history will repeat itself. In the nineteen-fifties, Fidel Castro, alongside Che Guevara, led a revolution in Cuba, an island nation right at the doorstep of the United States, against the rule of Fulgencio Batista, bringing down his regime and establishing a communist system of government. As one would have expected during this time, Castro’s Cuba signed a cooperation agreement with the Soviet Union, the era’s symbol of communism. In 1962, during John Kennedy’s term, the United States was shocked to see Soviet nuclear missiles on Cuban territory. Given the island’s proximity to the United States, the latter saw the presence of these missiles as a direct threat to its national security, an assessment affirmed by national security doctrine and the rules of military science. To deal with this obvious threat, Kennedy ordered the military to be prepared to launch nuclear missiles at Cuba and wipe it off the map. This crisis went on for 14 days, and it ended with the Soviet Union taking its nuclear missiles out of Cuba and the United States removing the batteries of its nuclear missiles close to the Cuban border. This affair came to be known as the ‘Cuban missile crisis,’ and it was a reason for the emergence of the field of crisis management, which has become an integral part of every military strategy and national security studies program. Sixty years later, the situation repeats itself in reverse. We now have Russia, the symbol of the remnants of the Soviet Union that collapsed in 1991, seeing an independent neighboring country that had once been part of the USSR, Ukraine, demand to join NATO. This would allow for US, British, or French military bases to be set up on its territory. This is a repeat of the scenes we saw 60 years ago, but this time, it is Russia rejecting the presence of foreign troops on its borders. It demanded that the US and NATO pledge, in writing, that Ukraine will not join the alliance. In response to NATO and the United States’ refusal to comply with its demands, Russia began deploying troops on the border with Ukraine. Looking into this deployment, its scale, and its positioning made clear that the intention was to invade Ukraine. Of course, the United States and NATO emphasized that they would not intervene militarily to stop Russia. However, they threatened sanctions to deter Moscow. Beyond any doubt, Russian President Vladimir Putin met with his defense council in Moscow to examine the various aspects of the situation. It seems that his economic advisors affirmed that Russia could withstand the sanctions they expected the US and Europe to impose. Meanwhile, his military advisors stressed that Russia could defeat Ukraine. This was when Putin decided to attack Ukraine and impose his will. Either the current government would be obliged to sign a pledge not to join NATO or prevent any foreign army from establishing military bases, or it would be changed and replaced by a military government that pledges loyalty to Moscow, as had been the case before the 2019 elections in Ukraine. In order to achieve these goals, Russia attacked Ukraine in operations military jargon refers to as “limited traditional warfare.” It is “traditional” because it is not a nuclear war, as Ukraine does not have nuclear weapons. Meanwhile, it is “limited” because it is a war between only two countries, Russia and Ukraine, as the United States and NATO announced they would not take part in the war. The military campaign started with Russian high-precision ballistic missile and cruise missile attacks on Ukrainian military infrastructure, which coincided with cyberattacks. Missile strikes were a different tactic from that used in previous conventional wars, which have all begun with air strikes. I believe that this new Russian idea will be adopted in future wars, as air strikes are extremely costly. Indeed, modern aircraft like the F-16 and Sukhoi cost up to $ 100 million. Missiles are far cheaper and achieve the same objective. The missile strikes and cyber attacks targeted Ukrainian missile bases, radars, command and control centers, missile depots, military factories and headquarters, air bases, and Ukrainian military airports, destroying about 70 percent of Ukraine’s military infrastructure in five hours. Today, after months of war, everyone is wondering whether there is a glimmer of hope a few days away from the new year. Could this war end? Will there be peace again? The fact is that many analyses indicate that solutions for this war could begin to emerge as winter ends. By then, the result of the gas war that Russia has been waging against Ukraine and the European Union since the end of autumn would have become clear. Russia is betting that this war will push the governments in these countries to abandon Ukraine after having undergone a tough winter during which some did not get enough heating as inflation and unemployment rose. Moreover, we are seeing more and more questions about how long the US will continue to support Ukraine, especially after the Republicans won a majority in Congress. This will likely lead to a reduction in the military and financial support President Joe Biden has been giving Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. Will this push the Ukrainian president to reach a peaceful political solution to the conflict at a negotiating table with President Putin? What kind of political settlement could we see after President Putin’s Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia had complicated matters? Russia would not consider giving up on these areas nor the Crimea peninsula, which Russia has been demanding Ukraine recognize as part of the Russian Federation since the war began. All of this, of course, will complicate any potential peace process. From the very beginning, Ukraine has insisted that it has no issue with pledging not to join NATO, and it pledged not to obtain nuclear weapons in the future. Nonetheless, these four regions and Crimea remain an obstacle to any future political solution. Furthermore, I believe that reduced US support for Ukraine in the future and the prospect of European citizens pressuring their government might compel the Ukrainian president to join negotiations for peace. This is especially likely given the fact ten million Ukrainian families are living without electricity. In any case, the developments that will unfold over the next two months will be decisive for the prospects of a peaceful solution to this war emerging soon.