A recent spike in Russian military activity over Syria, coupled with the downing of an American drone by a Russian fighter jet in the Black Sea, is prompting fears that Moscow and Washington are on a collision course to confrontation. While scuffles and standoffs between Russia and the US in northeast Syria are not new, developments this month have sparked concern among analysts that a more serious skirmish is possible. De-escalation is urgently needed to prevent the situation from spiraling out of control. American and Russian militaries have operated in an uneasy coexistence in Syria since the Kremlin sent forces there in 2015 to support the Syrian regime. US troops were deployed to northeast Syria in 2014 to counter Daesh in cooperation with the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces. Today, approximately 900 US service members remain to keep a potential resurgence of Daesh at bay. Notably, the US and Russia established communication channels in 2015 to prevent direct military encounters. But since March 1, US forces have reported a surge in Russian air force activity in Syria. According to American commanders, Russian aircraft are acting aggressively toward US bases in a manner not typical of an organized military force. For instance, armed Russian jets reportedly flew sorties over American bases in the country nearly every day last month, violating the deconfliction between the two countries. Lt. Gen. Alexus G. Grynkewich, the top US Air Force general in the Middle East, said Russia’s aggressive posture in Syria is linked to the return of Russian commanders after failing in Ukraine. “To me, it’s very, very concerning,” he said. “I believe that some of those Russian leaders are trying to rebuild their reputation.” The erratic behavior, previously a nuisance, became a major concern for the Pentagon after a Russian Su-27 fighter jet damaged a US Reaper drone west of Crimea, causing it to crash into international waters. In a statement, the US military’s European Command criticized the pilot’s “unsafe and unprofessional” interception, and said that the Russian fighter dumped fuel and flew recklessly in front of the drone before striking its propeller. For its part, the Russian Defense Ministry denied the allegations and claimed that an increase in US drone flights off the coast of Crimea is “provocative in nature.” Crimea is a Ukrainian peninsula that Russia annexed in 2014 and now uses as a major military base for its war on Ukraine. As such, the drone incident highlights the dangers of miscalculation and the threat of escalation between Russia and NATO — particularly as the West continues to increase its military support to Ukraine. In times of crisis, even the slightest misunderstanding can lead to miscalculations and grave mistakes. Dr. Haid Haid But although the drone incident was serious, the situation in Syria presents greater risks. According to US officials, Russian forces in Syria are no longer informing them about their movements, violating protocols that require the air force that flies into areas controlled by the other party to announce operations in advance. Hence, when unannounced Russian aircraft enter what the US regards as its airspace, American warplanes intercept them. US officials argue that they are obliged to monitor Russian aircraft movements in their airspace closely to ensure the safety of their forces on the ground, and to prevent potential mishaps. The US recently increased its military presence in the Middle East, in response to the heightened aggression in Syria. In addition to deploying a squadron of A-10 attack aircraft ahead of schedule, a carrier strike group was ordered to remain in the region to support US forces. Through these actions, the US is signaling that it will take all necessary measures to defend its forces in Syria and the wider region. These developments are even more concerning amid the absence of clear procedures to prevent what happened in the Black Sea from occurring in Syria. If such an event were to unfold, the US would likely interpret it as deliberate, which could lead to a further escalation of tensions in the region. Unfortunately, recent developments indicate that such a scenario is no longer a remote possibility. In times of crisis, even the slightest misunderstanding can lead to miscalculations and grave mistakes. While wise people are needed to prevent catastrophic outcomes, this approach is not foolproof. With the risk of escalation in Syria climbing, there is an urgent need for clear deconfliction protocols between US and Russian forces. A military hotline is only useful if both sides pick up the phone. To avert disaster in Syria, Washington and Moscow must work to prevent confrontation — and move quickly to contain the fallout if it occurs again. • Dr. Haid Haid is a Syrian columnist and a consulting associate fellow of Chatham House’s Middle East and North Africa program. ©Syndication Bureau