Brexit’s seven lean years reopens door to closer UK-EU ties

  • 7/4/2023
  • 00:00
  • 3
  • 0
  • 0
news-picture

In the biblical story, Joseph interpreted the pharaoh’s dream of seven fat cows being devoured by seven lean cows as symbolizing seven years of abundance followed by seven years of famine, for which the ruler should prepare in order to save his people from starvation. Sadly, seven years ago, when the UK went to vote on whether to remain a member of the EU or to leave it, there was no adequate leadership, nor enough people, to listen to those who warned them of the lean years that would follow Brexit. Instead, a majority of the British people voted to follow the folly of Boris Johnson and Nigel Farage. Seven years later, a country that previously enjoyed unprecedented prosperity has been thrown into a political, social and very much economic crisis, and is much poorer. Most of these woes can be attributed to the ill-fated decision to unilaterally abandon the European project. There is not a hint of satisfaction, of “we told you so,” among those who voted to remain in the EU, as the wounds of Brexit are still bleeding and will continue to do so for a while. The full extent of the damage caused by the UK’s departure has been partly concealed by the two mega-events of the COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine that have, admittedly, contributed to some of the challenges the UK is facing, particularly the soaring cost of living. But do not delude yourself — the ardent Brexiters are, in their audacity, using these calamities as a smokescreen to hide their responsibility for taking an entire nation on a nationalistic, anti-European jaunt fueled by some big ego trips. Any debate on whether a less complacent Remain campaign — as it was tainted with an elitist and arrogant assumption that voting “Leave” was such an absurd and utterly outlandish tantrum over an imagined malign influence from abroad and a misplaced expression of national pride that it could never happen — would have led to a different result is now completely academic. However, as interesting as the “what if” questions may be, in reality the Leave campaign won, albeit by a tiny margin, and the nation was, as a result, thrown into years of turmoil that have also claimed the scalps of four Conservative prime ministers. In certain areas, the damage caused by Brexit is staring everyone in the face — apart from the Johnson loyalists that is Yossi Mekelberg Today, with the UK waking up to a painful post-Brexit hangover, only 18 percent of 2016’s Leave voters still believe that Brexit has proved to be a success, according to the UK in a Changing Europe think tank, although many of these (61 percent) think that, in the fullness of time, it will turn out well. This is, of course, wishful thinking with no evidence to back it up. However, what is more telling about the mood among Brits is that 59 percent of respondents professed that they would want to rejoin the EU, while only 41 percent are keen to remain out. This is a big collective change of heart that can only be explained by the sobering impact of what have now been revealed to be the baseless promises of the Brexiters and waking up to the harsh realities that the UK is facing today. However, it still raises the question of whether there is any way for the UK to regain full EU membership in the near future, or if not at least closer ties with Brussels. In certain areas, the damage caused by Brexit is staring everyone in the face — apart from the Johnson loyalists such as Jacob Rees-Mogg and Nadine Dorries that is, as they are still lying in their Leave trenches. Not only has the National Health Service not received its extra injection of £350 million ($443 million) every single week as was promised, but Brexit has made it much harder — through tougher immigration rules and increased costs and bureaucracy — to attract health workers from abroad. Another Brexit setback has been the sluggish progress on signing trade agreements, with today’s state of affairs being close to what President Barack Obama warned of in advance of the referendum: That, once outside Europe, the UK would move to the back of the queue, no longer being part of the world’s most-powerful collective bargaining force and instead reduced to a medium-sized European power and an international outlier. This will also require the EU to be magnanimous, if not in victory, at least in being completely exonerated Yossi Mekelberg Brexit has also contributed to the UK’s faster rise in the cost of living compared to other European nations, with the country’s departure from the EU estimated by one study to have added £250 to the average household’s annual grocery bill between December 2019 and March 2023. Meanwhile, lorries are experiencing long delays at ports and Brits going abroad find themselves paying mobile phone roaming charges, in addition to enduring long queues to enter EU member countries — an imposition they were previously spared. On the plus side of Brexit, sadly there is nothing to report. Despite this rude awakening, so far at least, neither of the UK’s two main political parties are calling for either a return to full membership of the EU or even a resurrection some aspects of membership that could salvage some of what has been lost. With the refusal by those who led the Leave campaign to admit that it was a mistake and that it needs to be at least mitigated, and with no courage among Remainers to fully expose the folly of Brexit and campaign for full EU membership (which would likely involve very tough negotiations with Brussels), the way forward must be a matter of gradually rebuilding bridges until the UK once more enjoys its previous strong ties with the rest of Europe. Such incremental steps could begin with reestablishing easier entry arrangements for workers and for educational and cultural exchanges, or unifying food safety standards; this is not beyond the realm of possibility. Moreover, as both the EU and the UK are signatories to almost the same treaties and conventions that have been set to contain and reverse climate change, they could integrate their policies and standards in this respect. After decades of Britain’s right-wing, populist, self-serving, manufactured animosity toward Europe, Brexit has been exposed as the all-hype-and-no-substance chimera it truly is. This should enable the UK, humbly, to try and claw her way back toward closer cooperation with the EU, as friends and allies, until the time is ripe to, at first, rejoin the customs union and the single market. This will also require the EU to be magnanimous, if not in victory, at least in being completely exonerated. It should not be seen by the other 27 members as a favor, but instead, at a time of multiple global crises, as a way to contribute to a stronger EU on the world stage, with the UK as a valued and full partner. Yossi Mekelberg is professor of international relations and an associate fellow of the MENA Program at Chatham House. He is a regular contributor to the international written and electronic media. Twitter: @YMekelberg

مشاركة :