The typical gas and electricity bill will fall to an average of £1,823 a year from October after the regulator Ofgem announces its energy price cap next week, a leading forecaster has predicted. According to Cornwall Insight, the cap, which does not apply to consumers in Northern Ireland, will drop from the July to September level – equivalent to £2,074 a year – but consumer groups have warned that prices remain “dangerously high”. Bills are likely to rise again from January to an average of £1,979 a year as a consequence of the recent surge in global gas market prices ignited by a string of planned strikes at large gas projects in Australia, the analysts said. Craig Lowrey, a principal consultant at Cornwall Insight, said that despite the small decrease in bills from October, the energy price was forecast to remain far above pre-crisis levels, underscoring “the limitations of the price cap as a tool for supporting households with their energy bills”. The energy price cap was introduced in January 2019, and before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine accelerated a global energy crisis it had always sat at below £1,300 a year. Its rapid rise ever since, which prompted the government to supersede the cap with an energy price guarantee, has reignited concerns that bills are unaffordable for millions of household living in fuel poverty and has prompted fresh calls for a cheaper “social tariff” for the most vulnerable. Lowrey said: “As many, including energy regulator Ofgem, have acknowledged, it is essential that the government explore alternative solutions, such as social tariffs, to ensure stability and affordability for consumers.” Ofgem’s chief executive, Jonathan Brearley, told the Guardian this week that ministers should rethink whether the “very broad and crude” price control was still fit for purpose during the energy crisis. The price cap was designed to ensure energy bills were fair by calculating what it cost suppliers to provide gas and electricity to their customers. But millions have been pushed into fuel poverty by the record energy prices. “I think we are clear that a more rigorous framework of providing support for customers is needed,” Brearley said. Ofgem, the energy regulator for Great Britain, is expected to announce the modest drop in the unit price for gas and electricity next Friday because prices on the global gas markets have fallen from record highs last year. But the cap will also appear lower because the regulator has changed how it calculates the average energy bill by assuming that households will use 7% less electricity and 4% less gas. Without this change, the October price cap would be almost £100 a year higher at £1,925, according to Cornwall Insight. Simon Francis, a campaigner at the End Fuel Poverty Coalition, said: “This coming winter will not feel any better than last, as energy bills remain at dangerously high levels.” The price cap only dictates the maximum a supplier can charge per unit of energy, based on the annual consumption of a typical home. A household’s actual dual-fuel bill will depend on how much gas and electricity they use. Cornwall predicts that under the new price cap the unit price for electricity will fall from 30p a kilowatt hour to 26.96p/kWh, while the unit price for gas will drop from 8p/kWh to 6.93p/KWh.