Water — not politics or religion — was the main reason for the clashes that took place at the border between Afghanistan and Iran in May. Border guards from the two countries engaged in combat, exchanging heavy gunfire that resulted in the deaths of two Iranian guards, one Taliban soldier and numerous other people. Such fighting has brought the region’s water woes back into the public eye. Beyond water, both countries have accused the other of destabilizing actions, especially since the Taliban took power in Afghanistan in 2021. However, there have lately been signs of easing tensions and the establishment of stabilized relations with the support of various powers. Water disputes between Iran and Afghanistan have long existed. Two significant dams were constructed by Afghanistan in the 1950s that reduced the flow of water into Iran via the Helmand river. The result was the ratification of an agreement in 1973 that gave Iran access to 850 million cubic meters of Helmand water annually. The treaty was never fully executed because of later revolutions, invasions, wars and significant changes in both countries’ governments. A fresh dispute over the water flowing in the Helmand river from Afghanistan into Iran was the spark for the recent violence along the border. Tehran claims that the Taliban leadership is deliberately denying Iran adequate water supplies in order to bolster its own; however, the Taliban claims that there is no longer enough water due to declining rainfall and river levels. Iran faces what experts call water bankruptcy. This is the result of misguided policies promoting agriculture and development that led to the irreversible depletion of water sources. This is not only happening on its border with Afghanistan, as water-related riots were widespread in the southwestern Khuzestan region in 2021 and the poor, rural southeastern province of Sistan and Balochistan is consistently running out of water. In Iran, many have blamed the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps for diverting water flows for its own projects, leaving entire populations without this precious resource. So, the cross-border clashes have, in a way, deflected from the local discontent and shifted the blame to Afghanistan and the Taliban. On the other hand, the Taliban are also facing a challenge to their new authority specifically in this border area thanks to the rise of Daesh’s Khorasan Province. This group has carried out many attacks and poses the greatest danger to the Taliban’s power. In strikes conducted by Daesh Khorasan in an effort to topple the Taliban administration, hundreds of people — including foreigners and members of the minority Hazara community — have been murdered or maimed. The organization has also murdered members of the Taliban government, including the acting governor of the northeastern province of Badakhshan in June and the governor of the northern province of Balkh, who was assassinated in an attack on his office in March. Daesh Khorasan members are, in turn, being targeted by the Taliban government, which has been raiding their hideouts throughout a number of districts. A positive in Iranian-Afghan relations was noted last week, when the head of the Taliban interim government’s railway department, Bakht-ur-Rahman Sharafat, wrote on social media: “Afghanistan will be connected with Iran’s Chabahar port via the Nimroz-Milk railway and the Zahedan railway.” This declaration came after the conclusion of several rounds of bilateral meetings between the Taliban government and its Iranian counterparts over recent weeks. A major part of the construction of the 140 km railway from Chabahar port to the Afghanistan border has already been completed. Another sign of detente is the expected visit to Afghanistan by an Iranian judicial delegation. A report this week stated that, according to Hafiz Zia Ahmad Takal, the deputy spokesman for acting Afghan Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi, Iranian Ambassador to Kabul Hassan Kazemi Qomi told Muttaqi in a meeting that the Iranian judicial mission will visit Kabul soon. The group is scheduled to address legal issues and cases involving Afghan nationals who have received death sentences in Iran. This is an important issue, as the 900-km border between Afghanistan and Iran is permeable and rife with criminality, much of which is transported into Iran from the Afghan side. Afghanistan has been plagued by war and instability for many years and the Taliban administration makes a sizable portion of its money from illegal trade. It is not a coincidence that the border region is where the top IRGC generals have earned their posts. Tehran claims that the Taliban leadership is deliberately denying Iran adequate water supplies in order to bolster its own. Khaled Abou Zahr Since the US-led withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021, Pakistan, India and China have been actively engaged in stabilizing relations between Afghanistan and Iran, each driven by unique interests. Pakistan aims to ensure regional security and maintain its historical influence. India seeks to establish a trade route through Chabahar port, bypassing Pakistan, to enhance its economic connectivity with Afghanistan and Central Asia. And China, driven by its Belt and Road Initiative, aims to safeguard its investments and trade routes in the region, while addressing security concerns emanating from Afghanistan. The development of common infrastructure, such as desalination plants, and the diplomatic efforts supported by Pakistan, India and China offer a potential route to stability and economic growth, while addressing the long-standing issues between Afghanistan and Iran. However, geopolitical competition and economic interests suggest a difficult and tortuous road ahead. Khaled Abou Zahr is the founder of Barbicane, a space-focused investment syndication platform. He is CEO of EurabiaMedia and editor of Al-Watan Al-Arabi. Disclaimer: Views expressed by writers in this section are their own and do not necessarily reflect Arab News" point of view
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