Poland’s elections on 15 October could give the ruling nationalist Law and Justice (PiS) party an unprecedented third term in office, or hand its longstanding opposition the chance to reverse what critics describe as eight years of democratic backsliding. Another possibility is that they end in stalemate, with neither party able to form a coalition. Whatever happens, Poland’s politics will remain deeply polarised after a ballot that – amid war in Ukraine and a bitter dispute with the EU – is of more than usual interest abroad. What’s the story and why is it important? First elected in 2015, the rightwing, populist and socially conservative PiS is widely accused of politicising the judiciary, turning public media into a party mouthpiece, using state assets to extend its grip on power, and fanning homophobia. The party argues it is trying to make Poland’s courts more effective and the economy fairer, as well as defending the country’s Catholic character from western liberal pressures. Critics say another PiS victory would drag Poland further away from democratic standards. The main opposition grouping – the centre-right Civic Platform (PO), led by the former European Council president Donald Tusk – has promised to undo PiS’s changes to the judiciary and media to ensure their independence and constitutional compliance. A PO victory would also open the way for Poland to improve relations with Germany, which have come under increasing strain as the PiS-led government has persisted in picking petty fights with Berlin mainly to appeal to its nationalist base. Western allies are watching closely since any political paralysis after the vote – possible if no clear majority emerges – could raise concerns about Poland’s continuing major role in supporting its eastern neighbour in its war with Russia. Brussels and other EU capitals are also looking on with interest: like Hungary, Poland is engaged in a protracted and increasingly fraught rule-of-law dispute with the bloc, and a change of government would herald smoother relations. One of the incoming government’s most urgent tasks will be to persuade Brussels that its democratic record is improving enough – after recent proposed tweaks to the judiciary – to unlock billions of euros in Covid recovery and cohesion funds. Who are the key players and what do they want? Led from behind the scenes by Jarosław Kaczyński, Poland’s prime minister from 2006 to 2007, PiS aims to take more steps towards instilling its conservative values in public life, including through mandatory school curricula. Kaczyński has also promised that “this time, no one will stop us” from enacting judicial change, with plans to further restrict judges’ powers and the capacity of the supreme court to review the government’s programme and actions. Amid double-digit inflation and soaring energy costs, the party hopes to galvanise its mainly older, poorer rural or small-town electorate by increasing its child subsidy programme by 60%, upping pension payments and cutting petrol prices. PiS is also fighting hard on the nativist anti-immigration front, organising a four-question referendum alongside the election with leading questions, notably on the supposedly EU-imposed “admission of thousands of illegal immigrants from the Middle East and Africa”. PO, which says the questions are xenophobic and the process invalid, is courting women’s votes by promising to allow abortion – subject to a near-total ban under PiS – until 12 weeks and declaring termination, IVF and contraception as fundamental rights. In addition, PO has said it aims to allow civil partnerships for same-sex couples, favoured by nearly two-thirds of Polish voters, and expand the definition of rape. It is also seeking to capitalise on a recent corruption scandal involving the sale of Schengen-zone visas. How does the system work? Poland operates a party-list proportional vote for elections to its 460-seat Sejm, or lower house of parliament. Parties win seats according to the aggregate vote for their candidates in a constituency, and then allocate the seats to those candidates with the highest totals. At least 35% of candidates on party lists must be women, and another 35% men. Individual parties must win at least 5% of the national vote to earn a seat in parliament, and coalitions must win at least 8%. Who looks like winning? After a virulent, bad-tempered campaign filled with often crude attacks on the opposition in general and a supposedly “un-Polish” Tusk in particular, most polls show PiS and its allies, Sovereign Poland and the Republicans, ahead on about 36%. However, their lead has shrunk since PiS hit a high of 43.6% in the 2019 election and whether the party, if it finishes first, can actually form a functioning government could depend on several factors, notably the performance of smaller parties. PiS could get a significant boost if one or more of its smaller rivals – including the centrist, agrarian Third Way, the far-right Confederation, and the New Left – fail to clear the threshold to win seats in parliament. Alternatively, as some polls have suggested, PiS could finish ahead but by such a small margin, and PO – currently on about 30% – and the New Left or Third Way could do so well, that the opposition gets the first go at forming a majority coalition. The economically libertarian, politically conservative Confederation, which is particularly popular among young men, could be an eventual kingmaker. It was polling as high as 14% over the summer, although that has now sunk to about 9%. While analysts believe PiS will try to persuade Confederation MPs to change allegiance after the vote, the libertarian party’s leaders have said they will not enter a coalition – meaning that if it does well, neither main party may be able to form a majority.