PiS has most votes, but opposition could have route to government An exit poll in Poland’s parliamentary election suggested the ruling Law and Justice (PiS) party had won the most votes but, if it turns out to be accurate, appeared to show a possible route to government for a combined opposition coalition led by former prime minister and European Council president Donald Tusk. However, an exit poll in Slovakia’s election earlier this month appeared to show a victory for a progressive coalition, only for the actual results to be strikingly different. It will be later in the night on Sunday, and perhaps well into Monday when the final results become available. The exit poll put PiS on 36.8% and Tusk’s Civic Coalition on 31.6%. However, two groups that could form a coalition with Tusk also did well, with 13% for the centre-right Third Way and 8.6% for the leftwing Lewica. Such a result would mean that the three combined parties would probably have the majority of mandates in Poland’s 460-seat parliament. In a further piece of potential good news for Poland’s progressives, the exit poll put Confederation, a far-right coalition tipped to get about 9% of the vote, on 6.2%, lower than pre-election polls had estimated their support to be. “The nightmare ends,” wrote Bart Staszewski, a Polish LGBTI+ activist. Piotr Buras, head of the European Council on Foreign Relations’ Warsaw office, said this evening that “the opposition’s victory is the result of a growing fatigue with the PiS government in the society, beyond the groups usually supporting the liberals.” “The liberals have won the absolute majority but the process of forming a government may not be easy and straightforward,” Buras noted, adding that an opposition win “opens the way for a massive reorientation of Poland’s domestic and European policy.” If the exit poll results are confirmed, experts point to a number of surprises in the election outcome – particularly when it comes to the very high turnout. Borys Budka, chair of Donald Tusk’s Civic Coalition parliamentary fraction, said this evening that the “Polish people proved we don’t want Polexit”. “We stopped Polexit today. Democracy in Poland stopped Polexit because the third term for PiS would mean Polexit,” he said. Speaking about possible PiS moves in the coming days if the final results confirm exit polling that the opposition has a route to government, Budka said: “I’m not sure Kaczyński is a person who can make a revolution now. He is not very strong. He looks very tired and even if they try any tricks it wouldn’t be something which changed the result.” When it comes to discussions on building an opposition coalition, Budka noted that there are still no official results. “The next 40 hours, 60 hours will show how we build this coalition. But for us it’s obvious that coalition will be us, the Third Way and the Left,” he said. The next days will show what happens in Poland and I am quite sure that the president will have to appoint the candidate of the majority in the Sejm. We have democracy, we have results of elections and we will build the coalition with the new prime minister. As we wait for more numbers, here are more photos from Poland today. Poland’s election and exit poll results are getting significant attention abroad. Siegfried Mureșan, a member of the European parliament and vice-chair of the centre-right European People’s Party group, said that “Poland is back.” Terry Reintke, co-president of the Greens in the European parliament, said “this evening could be a massive game changer for Europe.” Adam Bodnar, the former Polish ombudsman and current senate candidate, said an opposition win was due in large part to civil society’s fight for a democratic Poland. What would an opposition win mean for Europe? Max Bergmann, director of the Europe programme at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, suggests that an opposition victory in Poland could contribute to a power shift eastward within the EU. Opposition victory would mean ‘safety’ for women, MP says Barbara Nowacka, a Civic Coalition MP who has been fiercely critical of PiS crackdown on abortion rights, told me she has little doubt that the election results will give the opposition the possibility to form a government. “No matter what they will say, we know we won … the opposition will have more seats than the ruling party plus Konfederacja,” she said. I asked her what an opposition victory would mean for Polish women: “Safety. Finally safety. Young women won’t be afraid to get pregnant, young women won’t be afraid to go to the doctor. Women won’t be afraid that the Istanbul Convention, which gives them the right to be protected from domestic violence, won’t be implemented. Schools will be free and democratic without the moronic minister of education.” Confident vibe at Civic Coalition’s headquarters. Despite the opposition’s very strong showing in exit polling, Polish prime minister Mateusz Morawiecki posted an upbeat message on social media celebrating Law and Justice’s results. Robert Biedroń, a member of the European parliament from New Left, is celebrating what he describes as the end of PiS in Poland. Election turnout reaches historic level Poland’s national electoral commission said that turnout appears to have been the highest since 1989, Gazeta Wyborcza reports. The Ipsos exit poll found that turnout was at a record 72.9%. The age group with the highest turnout, according to the poll, was the 50-59 group with 83.2%. What would an opposition win mean for Poland’s energy transition? Poland is Europe’s coal king. Even as businesses and individuals have put heat pumps in homes and stuck solar panels on roofs – helped in part by government subsidies – Law and Justice has said it sides firmly with the coal industry. The party has promised workers they can keep mining coal, the dirtiest fossil fuel, until 2049. To keep global heating to 1.5C, the International Energy Agency expects rich countries to shut down coal plants by 2030. “In general the transformation is taking place,” said Zuzanna Rudzińska-Bluszcz, head of the Polish branch of environmental nonprofit ClientEarth. “But in declarations, they treat coal as Polish gold.” Analysts say an opposition win could turn that around. Before the election, Civic Platform said it will aim to make 65% of Poland’s electricity from renewables by 2030. “This direction is popular among the electorate and the businesses keen to replace polluting and expensive generation from hard coal and lignite,” said Michał Smoleń, who runs the energy and climate programme at Fundacja Instrat thinktank. But a progressive coalition would still have its work cut out to pass meaningful climate policies, he added. “Major programmes initiated in the last years – such as development of offshore wind and nuclear power – will likely continue. But governing and implementing the transition will not be easy.” In particular, he said, the coalition would be unprecedentedly broad, President Duda would still have veto power until 2025, and there could be strong opposition from coal workers’ unions.