The Conservatives face “obliteration” at the next election after leaving the country in a worse state than they inherited it in 2010, a senior Tory MP has said, in a stark assessment of the party’s 13 years in government. Danny Kruger, a leading backbencher and founder of the increasingly influential New Conservatives group, said the Conservatives risked being ejected from power this year having left the country “sadder, less united and less conservative” than they found it. The comments, which were made both at an event last year and in response to a Guardian inquiry, come just as the prime minister seeks to rally his troops with a hint of tax cuts to come in the budget ahead of an election later this year. Sunak will host an event in the north-west of England on Monday, where he will urge voters to stick with the Conservatives, saying: “The choice is whether we stick with the plan that is starting to deliver the long-term change our country needs, or go back to square one with the Labour party.” But the prime minister faces a difficult start to election year, with the possibility of a significant rebellion on Monday over his plan to extract more oil and gas from the North Sea, and another within weeks over the Rwanda bill. Sunak is also likely to have to fight three difficult byelections in Kingswood, Blackpool South and Wellingborough – all of which Labour hope to win. Speaking to a private event of Tory members organised by the thinktank ResPublica last October, Kruger said: “The narrative that the public has now firmly adopted – that over 13 years things have got worse – is one we just have to acknowledge and admit.” He added: “Some things have been done right and well. The free school movement that Michael Gove oversaw, and universal credit – and Brexit, even though it was in the teeth of the Tory party hierarchy itself, and mismanaged – nevertheless Brexit will be the great standing achievement of our time in office. “These things are significant, but, overall I’m afraid, if we leave office next year, we would have left the country sadder, less united and less conservative than when we found it.” A source at the event passed the comments to the Guardian. When a reporter approached Kruger to ask about them, he said: “This was a conversation among party members in which I made the case for realism and for honesty with the public.” He added that the rise of the far right in Europe should provide a warning for the Tory party. “For decades, across the western world, centre-right parties have controlled the institutes of the state – yet nevertheless have presided over a drift away from their stated values and the interests of their voters,” he said. “Conservatives worldwide have presided over models of mass migration, political correctness and economic short-termism. The British government is making some of the right moves to correct this. But the reaction under way in Europe at the moment is a warning to my party – either we remember the people we work for, or we face obliteration.” Kruger’s comments reflect widespread pessimism on the Tory benches about the direction of the party and its chances of winning the next election. As a founder of the New Conservatives, Kruger is a leading light of the socially conservative movement which is urging Sunak to shift further to the right on issues such as immigration. He is one of dozens of Tory MPs who rebelled last year on the Rwanda bill, arguing that it did not do enough to stop legal appeals against deporting asylum seekers to the African country. His comments about the rise of the far right in Europe are an indication of growing concern on the Tory benches about the rise of Reform UK, the populist party originally established by Nigel Farage as a successor to Ukip. Polls show Reform has risen from about 5% a year ago to about 9% today, mainly by attracting the kinds of Brexit-supporting former Labour voters whom Boris Johnson managed to win over in 2019. Kruger’s comments also undermine the prime minister’s attempts to strike a more optimistic tone at the start of the election year. Sunak will say at the PM Connect event on Monday: “But this government has made progress. At the start of this year, we are pointing in the right direction.” The prime minister is also under pressure from another group of more centrist backbenchers, many of whom share Kruger’s bleak assessment of the party’s electoral outlook but have a very different set of remedies. The moderate One Nation group has become more vocal in recent months, warning in November that turning to the right risked “falling into an unrecoverable position with most of the voters”. Many of their members are urging the prime minister to keep his focus on the economy and aspiration, rather than moving to the right on issues such as immigration and identity politics. Damian Green, the chair of the One Nation group, said that Kruger’s diagnosis of the problems facing the party was flawed. “The old saying that it’s the economy, stupid, still applies for general elections,” he said. “That’s where the Conservatives should fight. We need to convince would-be Conservative voters of all kinds if we want to win.” Downing Street did not respond to a request to comment.