Iran is scheduled to hold parliamentary and Assembly of Experts elections on March 1. These will be a crucial test for the political regime that has been governing Tehran for 45 years. It is a vote on the unpopularity of the abusive system of the ayatollahs. One of the roles of the Assembly of Experts is to name a new supreme leader to succeed Ali Khamenei after he dies or becomes incapable of carrying out his duties. The 84-year-old Khamenei and other Iranian leaders have expressed deep concerns that a low turnout of voters could be testimony to the Iranian people’s delegitimization of the Islamic Republic and its regime. It could also mean that the influence of the clerics is weakening. It could portend more serious troubles in the near future for the incumbent Iranian government. Most political observers expect a low turnout. Polls have revealed that Iranians are less likely to vote this year than in the parliamentary elections of 2020 and the presidential election in 2021. One assessment predicts that a maximum of 10 percent of those registered to vote could actually go to the polls. This is a catastrophic sign for the Iranian regime, which is losing its hold on power. The turnout in 2020 was about 42 percent — the lowest since the 1979 revolution. The prospects for a higher turnout in 2024 are not strong. A low turnout could portend more serious troubles in the near future for the incumbent Iranian government Maria Maalouf There are voices emerging from within the inner circles of the Iranian regime conveying serious worries that the March parliamentary elections could be a real disaster. For example, Mostafa Pourmohammadi, who was interior minister and justice minister in two different administrations, last year told Javan newspaper: “People themselves should be interested in participating in the elections, and this depends on the level of their satisfaction … We must analyze the situation realistically. Popular satisfaction has declined today, and many government entities are responsible.” Pourmohammadi’s statement must be taken seriously. He knows the centers of power in the Iranian state and society. Therefore, what he is saying could be the real feelings of those in the highest echelons of authority in Iran. They are all afraid of what is termed “low satisfaction” among the Iranian people, as it could indicate “voter apathy.” In the interview, Pourmohammadi added: “The young generation has distanced itself from us. Low turnout is a defeat for all of us.” However, he did not attack the foundations of the system of government in Iran. He only directed his attack against the current government of President Ebrahim Raisi. Certainly, there are genuine reasons why the Iranian electorate is so agitated against the country’s political establishment. Iran has been suffering a serious economic downturn for more than five years. Poverty is increasing. Iran was in turmoil from September 2022 until early 2023 due to serious anti-government demonstrations. They were ultimately defeated by the regime’s political repression. Among the Iranian people, there is a tremendous sense of anger directed against the government, coupled with an extensive feeling of discontent. There are genuine reasons why the Iranian electorate is so agitated against the country’s political establishment Maria Maalouf It is estimated that more than 500 civilians were murdered by the security forces during the protests. Hundreds were seriously injured. Many young people lost one or both of their eyes when forces loyal to the Iranian government fired rubber bullets or metal pellets at them. It is estimated that more than 20,000 people were arrested. Many were severely tortured while being interrogated. The brutal repression of the protests demonstrated to the Iranian population the lack of tolerance on the part of the regime. Meanwhile, the Iranian government is trying to mobilize its core constituency to show up and vote. It hopes that this could motivate others to vote. Iran’s leaders are trying to create supporters of the regime using various means. One example is the fact that state media is now broadcasting television shows that allow for very limited and controlled debates on several political topics. The idea is to show that the Iranian government welcomes the views of people from all different political backgrounds. This also permits a little criticism of the performance of the regime. But the movement to boycott the elections is growing. This includes the reformers inside Iran who have called on the Iranian people to stay away. Faezeh Hashemi Rafsanjani is a former lawmaker and the daughter of former President Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani. She is serving a five-year prison sentence for “propaganda against the regime” and participating in anti-government protests. In July last year, she wrote a letter from Evin Prison saying: “If we break our spell and don’t participate in elections, we can make the rulers’ path difficult by spreading the truth and force them to change policies … and finally take back the power we have given them.” Countering such calls urging Iranians not to vote on March 1 is what the reformist Entekhab News reported this month. It quoted Col. Majid Bazrafkan, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ cultural and social deputy, as saying: “The Basij is totally committed to increasing popular participation … and fighting the enemies.” He added that Iran’s “model of resistance was manifested for the entire world to see in the victory of the Islamic revolution and, through popular participation in the elections, we must serve as role models to others.” Predictably, the appeal for ordinary Iranians to participate in the parliamentary elections will be dim. Yet, the agony of the Iranian people is that they are confused, as they witness struggles among the holders of power inside Iran. The country’s rulers are attempting to confront a growing opposition that denounces their corruption and failure to govern effectively. Maria Maalouf is a Lebanese journalist, broadcaster, publisher, and writer. X: @bilarakib Disclaimer: Views expressed by writers in this section are their own and do not necessarily reflect Arab News" point of view