EU funding for Ukraine insufficient, senior lawmaker says Johan Van Overtveldt, chair of the European parliament’s budgets committee, is arguing that a newly agreed 50bn euro EU aid for Kyiv is insufficient. In his blog, the MEP wrote: First thing to note is that the conservative estimate for Ukraine’s non-military needs are 3bn euro a month. That means on an annual basis a need for 36bn euro. The 50bn euro foreseen in the Ukraine Facility cover 4 years, from 2024 to 2027. Hence, 12.5bn euro will on average be available for Ukraine each year. The deal between the EU and the United States was that each would take care of half of the Ukrainian needs, meaning 18bn euro for the EU and the US each. The Ukraine Facility will hence be annually at least 5.5bn euro short of what the EU’s commitment was. Over the entire period 2024-27 the shortfall is 22bn euro (4 x 5.5). Summary of the day Ukrainian officials said the repeated failure of the Biden administration to get a funding package for Ukraine approved by the Senate will have real consequences in terms of lives on the battlefield and Kyiv’s ability to hold off Russian forces on the frontline. Donald Tusk, the Polish prime minister, sent an unusually blunt message to US Senate Republicans, writing that “Ronald Reagan, who helped millions of us to win back our freedom and independence, must be turning in his grave today. Shame on you.” Senior European officials said Tusk’s rhetoric echoes concerns in the region. Johan Van Overtveldt, chair of the European parliament’s budgets committee, argued that a newly agreed 50bn euro EU aid package for Kyiv is insufficient. A volcano erupted in Iceland once again. The head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, and the Spanish prime minister, Pedro Sánchez, flew to Mauritania to sign a series of deals on migration and energy, as data revealed there has been a surge in people-smuggling operations to the Canary Islands. Sánchez said he arrived in Mauritania with von der Leyen “to strengthen our cooperation on migration and security.” Farmers continued demonstrating in different parts of Europe, including Spain and Italy. Members of the European parliament voted in favour of a resolution declaring that Serbia’s December parliamentary and local elections fell “below the expected standards for an EU candidate country” and calling for an independent investigation. US funding failure will have serious battlefield consequences, says Ukraine The repeated failure of the Biden administration to get a funding package for Ukraine approved by the Senate will have real consequences in terms of lives on the battlefield and Kyiv’s ability to hold off Russian forces on the frontline, say Ukrainian officials. As the two-year anniversary of Russia’s full-scale war in Ukraine approaches, Ukrainian officials say the delay in US support has already had a clear impact on the battlefield, where Kyiv’s exhausted troops have a severe hardware deficit in comparison to the Russians. Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s aide Mykhailo Podolyak said Russian troops were using about 10,000 artillery shells a day along the length of the frontline while Ukrainian troops were restricted to using between 1,500 and 2,500 in response. He said the shortage of equipment made long-term planning impossible. In an interview in Kyiv, he said: If you have a clear understanding that in the next three to six months you’ll have a particular number of long-distance missiles, for example, you can plan for which infrastructure targets to hit on the occupied territories. And when you sit here today with a deficit, and with uncertainty, you can only fight a defensive war, and this is a stimulant for Russia. The US ambassador to Ukraine, Bridget Brink, expressed thinly veiled frustration with the stalling of the support package on Wednesday, noting there was a massive Russian missile attack on Ukraine overnight. “There is no time to lose. Ukraine needs our security assistance now,” she wrote on X. A senior western European diplomat told us that Polish prime minister Donald Tusk’s criticism of US Senate Republicans “reflects what many of us strongly believe.” Iceland raises alert level over hot water supply disruption Reuters reports that following the latest volcanic eruption, Iceland’s Civil Protection Agency raised its alert level to emergency status as the volcanic outbreak disrupted the supply of hot water in a region south of the capital. EU funding for Ukraine insufficient, senior lawmaker says Johan Van Overtveldt, chair of the European parliament’s budgets committee, is arguing that a newly agreed 50bn euro EU aid for Kyiv is insufficient. In his blog, the MEP wrote: First thing to note is that the conservative estimate for Ukraine’s non-military needs are 3bn euro a month. That means on an annual basis a need for 36bn euro. The 50bn euro foreseen in the Ukraine Facility cover 4 years, from 2024 to 2027. Hence, 12.5bn euro will on average be available for Ukraine each year. The deal between the EU and the United States was that each would take care of half of the Ukrainian needs, meaning 18bn euro for the EU and the US each. The Ukraine Facility will hence be annually at least 5.5bn euro short of what the EU’s commitment was. Over the entire period 2024-27 the shortfall is 22bn euro (4 x 5.5). EU support "essential" for stability, Sánchez says in Mauritania Pedro Sánchez, the Spanish prime minister, said he arrived in Mauritania with Ursula von der Leyen “to strengthen our cooperation on migration and security.” “EU support for the development and stability of the region is essential,” he added. European parliament calls for investigation into Serbia"s election Members of the European parliament today voted in favour of a resolution declaring that Serbia’s December parliamentary and local elections fell “below the expected standards for an EU candidate country.” The parliament also called for an independent investigation into the irregularities. MEPs also said that accession negotiations with Belgrade should only advance if there is significant progress on reforms, and that if Serbian authorities were directly involved in voter fraud, the country’s access to EU funds should be suspended. MEPs approved the resolution with 461 votes in favour, 53 against and 43 abstentions. Ursula von der Leyen, the European Commission president, and Pedro Sánchez, Spain’s prime minister, are in Mauritania. Von der Leyen said: We are here to step up the EU-Mauritania partnership. With Global Gateway investments for the green and digital transition. And further cooperation on regional security and migration. Eastern Europeans share Tusk"s concern but hope for US support We asked senior officials from eastern Europe how they see Polish prime minister Donald Tusk’s public critique of senate Republicans this morning. Washington is the region’s key security partner, and openly calling out American lawmakers is unusual. “Many think similarly, although wouldn’t say publicly in such dramatic way,” said one senior diplomat from eastern Europe. A senior official from eastern Europe, meanwhile, said there are deepening worries but also hope that the US will provide more funding for Kyiv. This official said: There is a growing concern in the region about the situation in Ukraine. We all have hoped and still hope that US will follow the EU recent decision on facility on Ukraine. The US support, as the EU one, is more than vital for Ukraine, especially now when we are approaching the elections in Russia. Still confident that a solution could be found. "This too shall pass", Iceland"s president says after eruption Guðni Th. Jóhannesson, the president of Iceland, has reassured the public that flights are not impacted by the latest volcanic eruption. As before, our thoughts are with the people of Grindavík who cannot reside in their beautiful town. This too shall pass. A volcano has erupted in Iceland. Here are the latest images: Spain and EU to sign migration deal with Mauritania as people-smuggling rises The head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, and the Spanish prime minister, Pedro Sánchez, have flown to Mauritania to sign a series of deals on migration and energy, as data reveals there has been a surge in people-smuggling operations to the Canary Islands. Figures soon to be published by Frontex, the EU’s border agency, are expected to show that the number of people risking their lives by making the perilous journey from west African shores to the Spanish islands has risen dramatically in the past year. The EU leaders will meet Mauritania’s president, Mohamed Ould Ghazouani, on Thursday morning to “discuss security, migration and stability in the Sahel region”, a statement said. The west African country, along with its southern neighbour, Senegal, is a significant embarkation point for thousands of people seeking to reach the Canaries. Sources say the route is now the “most active” for people-smugglers luring travellers into high-risk journeys to the EU. Data shows 7,270 people were smuggled across the 900-mile stretch of water in January, up from 566 in the same month in 2023, the Spanish interior ministry said last week. Last year, Frontex recorded 380,000 irregular border crossings, the highest number since 2016. Here’s the background to Donald Tusk’s blunt post this morning. Joan Greve, senior US political reporter for the Guardian, writes: The Senate blocked a bipartisan border and national security bill from advancing on Wednesday, as Democrats accused Republicans of bending to the political wishes of Donald Trump at the expense of their constituents. The vote was 49 to 50, with 45 Democrats and four Republicans supporting the bill’s advancement. Sixty votes were needed to begin debate on the bill. The Senate majority leader, Chuck Schumer of New York, initially supported the bill’s advancement but then changed his vote – a procedural maneuver that would allow the chamber to revisit the proposal in the future. With the border deal dead, the Senate attempted to advance a separate foreign aid package that would include only the funding for US allies outlined in the bipartisan bill. There was some apparent confusion over how much support that bill had, forcing senators to keep an initial vote on the proposal open for four hours as they debated the best path forward. When the vote finally closed on Wednesday evening, 58 out of 100 senators were on record supporting the bill’s advancement. But 60 votes will ultimately be required to approve the bill, so it currently lacks the necessary support to pass the Senate. Taking to the Senate floor on Wednesday evening, Schumer announced the chamber would reconvene Thursday to vote on the bill again. However, it remained deeply unclear whether a foreign aid package without border measures could pass the Senate, which considered a similar proposal back in December. Republicans, who insisted that the legislation must address the border, previously blocked that package from advancing. The $118bn bipartisan bill would have granted the president a new power to shut down the border when daily crossings pass a certain limit while also expediting the asylum review process, which could have led to quicker deportation for many migrants. The bill would have provided $60bn in military assistance for Ukraine, $14bn in security assistance for Israel and $10bn in humanitarian assistance for civilians affected by wars in Ukraine, and Gaza and the West Bank. "Shame on you": Polish prime minister hits out at US Republicans Poland’s prime minister, Donald Tusk, has issued a sharp public rebuke to American Republicans. In a post on social media this morning, the centre-right politician said: Dear Republican Senators of America. Ronald Reagan, who helped millions of us to win back our freedom and independence, must be turning in his grave today. Shame on you. The unusually strong critique of politicians from Warsaw’s most important bilateral security partner came after the US Senate blocked a bipartisan $118bn bill on US-Mexico border and Ukraine. The bill would have provided $60bn in military assistance for Kyiv. Tusk is one of Europe’s veteran politicians, having served as prime minister of Poland from 2007 until 2014, president of the European Council from 2014 until 2019 and president of the European People’s party from 2019 until 2022, before returning to the post of prime minister at the end of last year. Welcome to the blog Good morning and welcome back to the Europe blog. Today we will be looking at transatlantic tensions, as some European leaders worry that Washington’s commitment to Ukraine is waning. We will also delve into the EU’s efforts to curb migration by striking deals with African governments, as senior leaders visit Mauritania. And we will be keeping a close eye on realignment of Europe political families, as the EU enters its pre-election season. Send tips and comments to lili.bayer@theguardian.com.