As Donald Trump inches closer to capturing the Republican Party nomination for president after his major victories in the Iowa caucus and the New Hampshire primary, the probability of him again confronting President Joe Biden in November is today the central question in American politics. However, different scenarios are now being debated to assess the likelihood of Trump returning to the White House. While Trump is regarded as the presumptive GOP candidate and he has a solid grip over rank-and-file Republicans, there is speculation that he will not win enough votes among independents and the general population to guarantee victory over Biden. Most Americans do not want a November 2024 replay of the election of four years ago. Most voters think they have little reason to choose either of the two candidates. But both Biden and Trump are trying to convince the American voters that they are the right choice. Biden’s campaign sees its biggest advantage in him being a polar opposite candidate to the figure of Trump himself. They are portraying the former president to the American public as someone who is very vulnerable because, if he were to be convicted of a crime as a felon, his support would drop dramatically. Undeniably, Biden faces no opposition in the Democratic Party race. Biden won last month’s New Hampshire Democratic primary strongly, getting 64 percent of the vote on a write-in campaign. His nearest rival, Rep. Dean Phillips of Minnesota, had only 20 percent, while author Marianne Williamson was third with 4 percent. And Biden last week trounced his two competitors in South Carolina, netting more than 96 percent of the vote. However, it is also important to assess Trump’s political strength. Trump swept the Jan. 15 Iowa caucus with a large victory margin. He won 56,260 votes, which was 51 percent of the total and guaranteed him a gain of 20 delegates. On the other hand, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis had figures of 21.2 percent and 23,420 votes, earning him nine delegates. Nikki Haley, the former governor of South Carolina, had 19.1 percent of the vote, or 21,085 votes, and secured eight delegates. Former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson, who styled his campaign as him being the harshest critic of Trump, received only 191 votes, or 0.2 percent of the Iowa Republican electorate. In the New Hampshire primary, Trump won 54.3 percent of the vote, getting 176,392 votes and 12 delegates. Haley held 43.2 percent of the vote or 140,288 ballots, winning her nine delegates. They are being accused of looking out for their own interests, not the American people’s common interests Maria Maalouf It is critical to point out that Trump is favored to win on Super Tuesday, which is scheduled for March 5. In addition, he is far ahead in the polls in South Carolina, where his now sole opponent, Haley, was previously governor. Furthermore, he enjoys a great deal of support among evangelical Christians. Needless to say, his “MAGA” supporters are well organized and stand with him in every political fight he enters. Many Republican voters believe that a liberal establishment that is biased against him is responsible for fabricating his legal troubles. An even bigger segment of Republicans thinks that Biden’s win in 2020 was illegitimate. Nevertheless, Trump has his weaknesses. Although he had a nearly three-to-one advantage among registered Republicans in Iowa, Haley wins more votes among undeclared or independent voters. The alienation of Trump by millions of independent voters could be the most crucial factor that might prevent him from winning against Biden. Yet, the political message of the US presidential election in 2024 is confusing to millions of Americans. Neither Biden nor Trump are popular. Both of them are viewed as too old. The American people are anxious to get this election over with. Voters resent the fierce hostility that each candidate harbors toward the other. The language of the campaign is so abrasive. There is a desire for revenge in this campaign. The two candidates are hitting out against each other out of arrogance and conceit. They are being accused of looking out for their own interests, not the American people’s common interests. The two parties are aggressive toward each other. Most Americans judge the course of the campaign for president in 2024 as displaying unhealthy signs for democracy. Biden’s tenure in the White House has been dominated by high inflation and the wars in Afghanistan, Ukraine and Gaza. Many fear that another Trump presidency will be an exercise in authoritarianism. Therefore, the election in 2024 will be less of a popularity contest than a casting of ballots on which candidate the American people consider the least bad option. • Maria Maalouf is a Lebanese journalist, broadcaster, publisher, and writer. X: @bilarakib