The Conservative party’s “scorched earth” immigration policies risk UK universities becoming increasingly reliant on students from China to avoid financial crisis, a former universities minister has said. It comes as estimates suggest 25% of tuition fee income at leading British universities already comes from China. Chris Skidmore, who resigned as a Conservative MP earlier this year, said the new restrictions on issuing international student visas, and recent threats to undo the “graduate route” work visas, were sabotaging the government’s own education strategy as well as efforts to diversify university recruitment away from China and towards other countries such as India and Nigeria. Since 2019, international students have been eligible for a two-year visa after graduating from a British university, with the Conservative general election manifesto arguing it would “help universities attract talented young people and allow those students to stay on to apply for work here”. But last month James Cleverly, the home secretary, told the Migration Advisory Committee to review the graduate route visa for “evidence of abuse”, raising fears that the Conservative party would use it as an election issue. In January the government curbed the ability for international students to bring family members. Skidmore said attacking the graduate route visa was “totally counterproductive” for the UK, and was already causing a drop in student applications after being widely reported overseas. “This [visa] was a manifesto commitment; this is what the Conservatives stood on as a platform in 2019. And to try to have a scorched earth policy of changing it at the last moment, as a kneejerk response, is the Reform [party] tail wagging the dog,” he said. “This is going to be economically disastrous for the country if the Tories use their last couple of months in power to try to pull up the drawbridge to try to stop international students coming here, when there’s so many constituencies and regional economies dependent on them.” Skidmore added: “I don’t want the Tories, in their dying days in government, to toxify and to contaminate and poison, permanently, a sector that contributes more than the oil and gas industry in this country, and is so important for the future.” The warning comes as relations between the UK and China have been strained, with Conservative MPs last week urging the government to take tougher action against Beijing, and universities told to draw up contingency plans for geopolitical events – such as a conflict over Taiwan – abruptly cutting off students coming from China. Skidmore is chair of the International Higher Education Commission, an independent group including vice-chancellors devising a new international education strategy, including the urgent need to diversify overseas recruitment. The commission says the UK is “worryingly reliant” on a shrinking number of countries for the majority of its student recruitment. Students from China are concentrated in “high tariff” or selective courses at universities such as those in the Russell Group, including Oxbridge, Glasgow and University College London. In 2021, 80% of PhD students from China studied at Russell Group universities. Many universities have been forced to rely on the unrestricted tuition fees from international students. While domestic undergraduate tuition fees have been frozen at £9,250 since 2016, leading universities are able to charge about £26,000 a year for each international undergraduate. Mark Corver, the managing director of dataHE, which analyses university finances and student recruitment, said 25% of the total tuition fee income at the Russell Group of leading research universities came from Chinese students alone. “We estimate that about 25% of total tuition fee income to Russell Group providers comes from China. So with 25% of income based on a single overseas country, there’s no doubt about it – however you look at the data – the institutions have become overexposed or dependent,” he said. Corver said the “political logic” of frozen domestic income and unrestricted international fees had led to the reliance on overseas students, with China seen as a long-term and reliable source of students. “This is what the funding model has shaped universities into doing but I can’t think, off the top of my head, of a single Russell Group institution that could happily withstand a 20% to 25% reduction in tuition fee income, which is what the group as a whole has an exposure to,” Corver said. A spokesperson for the Russell Group said the income was needed “to cover the significant and growing deficits in the government’s funding system for UK students”, leaving the sector vulnerable to shocks. “Our universities recognise that building a diverse international intake is important to financial resilience and are actively working to diversify student cohorts. In many cases this has involved institutions cancelling or reducing marketing activities in some countries and exploring new opportunities for growth,” the spokesperson said. “Government policy choices such as the reintroduction of the graduate route visa have boosted Russell Group efforts to recruit in new markets. In the last five years, our members have increased growth in students from India, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and a range of other countries. “Unfortunately, early data this year suggests that recent changes in government rhetoric and policy, including the ban on postgraduate taught student bringing dependants, are having an impact on international student numbers. Further restrictions, such as changes to the graduate route visa, could further threaten diversification efforts and the sector’s financial resilience.” The issue extends beyond the Russell Group, with Skidmore’s commission projecting that 50% of higher education will be funded by international student revenue by 2026. It also found that four out of five higher education providers would face budget deficits if there was “a gradual or sudden drop in international student numbers”. A government spokesperson said: “We are fully focused on striking the right balance between acting decisively to tackle net migration and attracting the best and brightest students to study at our universities, recognising the significant contribution they make to the UK. “That’s why earlier this month the home secretary commissioned an independent and expert review of the graduate route [visa] to prevent any abuse and ensure it continues to work in the UK’s best interests, and attracts and retains the talent our economy needs.”