Only four out of 10 people who voted Conservative in 2019 will do so at the next general election, according to the latest dire poll for Rishi Sunak’s party. Opinium’s latest survey for the Observer finds that just 41% of those who backed the Tories under Boris Johnson intend to do so next time. Sunak has indicated that the next election will take place towards the end of this year, though no date has been announced. Opinium found that voters are intending to desert the Tories for Reform (which is taking 14% of the Conservatives’ 2019 support) and Labour (which is attracting 12%). Twenty-three per cent of those who backed the Conservatives last time say they do not know how they will vote at the next election, and another 4% say they will not bother voting at all. Overall, Labour’s lead over the Tories is unchanged, compared with two weeks ago, at 16 points. Labour is still on 41%, and none of the other parties have moved. The Conservatives are on 25%, Reform 11%, the Liberal Democrats 10% and the Greens 8%. The Labour leader, Keir Starmer, has seen his approval rating improve from -10% to -3%; Rishi Sunak’s has also nudged upwards, from -36% to -33%. Starmer retains a 10-point lead over Sunak when voters are asked who would make the best prime minister, with the Labour leader favoured by 30% and Sunak by 20%. Some 38% say “none of these”. Labour has also retained commanding leads in a number of policy areas in which it has not traditionally been strong. On the economy it is favoured by 34% of voters, compared with 23% for the Conservatives, and on crime by 30%, against 20% for the Tories. Even on defence, Labour leads by 26% to 25% over the Tories, and on terrorism the two biggest parties are equal, with both favoured by 24% of voters. On the conflict in the Middle East, only 19% believe that the UK should continue exporting arms to Israel, against 52% who think export licences should be suspended.