Iran has announced that it will respond to Israel’s attack on its consulate in Damascus last week, which killed seven Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps officials, two of whom were high-ranking officers. Given the harsh rhetoric, it will be difficult for Tehran to back down. Iran is on high alert and so is Israel. All Israeli soldiers on leave were called in on Thursday. The question is where does Lebanon fall into this expected response? In a televised Quds Day speech, Hassan Nasrallah, the head of the pro-Iran Hezbollah group, explained that a response is “inevitable.” However, how, where, when and the magnitude of the response are issues that the group does not control. Nasrallah also said that the situation prior to the bombing of the Iranian consulate was different to the one after it. He described the bombing as a turning point. Nasrallah said Hezbollah must be ready and open to the different scenarios. He added that, if “the enemy” wants war, “we say to them, ‘Hello, welcome.’” This sentence drew the ire of the Lebanese. Most of them do not want war. Nasrallah said that Hezbollah has not yet used its heavy weaponry. He reiterated that, when the war ends in Gaza, it will also end in Lebanon. While bracing for war, the group is still not showing any flexibility regarding the election of a new Lebanese president and the formation of a government. This might be deliberate, as it wants to call the shots and, in the case of any misfortune, it does not want to face accountability from a legitimate authority. For any Lebanese, this is very worrying. Hezbollah wants to call the shots and, in the case of any misfortune, it does not want to face accountability Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib Any significant Iranian response is likely to involve Lebanon. If Tehran wants to respond against Israel, the most convenient route is through south Lebanon. This would mean the devastation of Lebanon. Israel has already declared its intention to inflict major damage if a war broke out with Lebanon. And Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has previously described the country as being “on the front line in confronting the usurping Zionist entity.” Iran and Hezbollah have been talking about the unity of the battlefields facing Israel. Will Hezbollah’s tit-for-tat attacks on Israel evolve into a major assault that will generate a retaliation? However, it is still Iran and Hezbollah’s preference to avoid an all-out war. Nevertheless, after the rhetoric of the last week, they need to respond. Could it be a symbolic response with no real repercussions, such as with the targeting of the US’ Ain Al-Asad base in Iraq following America’s assassination of Qassem Soleimani in 2020? That attack resulted in no heavy casualties on the American side. Iran is known to adopt strategic patience and not be provoked. However, the lack of an adequate response can be seen as a sign of weakness and this is dangerous for Iran both internally and regionally. Maybe this time a similar stunt to 2020 might not be enough to preserve the Islamic Republic’s prestige. Again, we do not know. Talking to people in Hezbollah’s circle, they believe that there will not be an all-out war because Israel will not take such a step unless it consults with the US. Several analysts have been coming up with predictions on how severe the response will be. However, it is all speculation. No one really knows what Iran’s response will be. One thing is for sure: If Iran conducts a major response and not a symbolic one like it did with Ain Al-Asad, Hezbollah will be on the front line. This would make the group’s position even more difficult. In this difficult time for the Islamic Republic, the regime in Tehran has no one to rely on except its proxies Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib Endangering Lebanon for Gaza is one thing. Though it is not really accepted by the general public, the Lebanese are very sympathetic to Gaza’s plight. However, pushing the country into a major war so that Iran can have its retribution on Israel would be something else. This would be unacceptable on all levels. Nasrallah, in his latest speech, again expressed total dedication to the so-called resistance axis and to Iran. In this difficult time for the Islamic Republic, the regime in Tehran has no one to rely on except its proxies. The pillar of this network is Hezbollah. Even Russia has not proven to be a solid partner. It did not intercept the attack on the diplomatic mission in Syria, nor did it deliver the Sukhoi Su-35 warplanes Iran wanted. Hence, Iran only has its arsenal of missiles and drones and its network of proxies. In case of a response, it will use its proxies. However, even if it did not do so, proxies like Hezbollah would be used to defend Iran from any potential US or Israeli attack. By raising the stakes, Hezbollah has placed itself in an unfavorable position. As the group gets cornered domestically, its fate is becoming more and more closely linked to Iran. Hezbollah has no choice but to stand with Tehran whatever it chooses to do. So, in the case of a real response, it will be involved. At the end of the day, Hezbollah and the other Iranian proxies were only founded to create deterrence for the Islamic Republic. As much as the group is precious for Khamenei, he would not have a choice but to sacrifice Hezbollah to protect Iran if needed. Unfortunately, the Lebanese people would pay the price for these regional calculations. Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib is a specialist in US-Arab relations with a focus on lobbying. She is co-founder of the Research Center for Cooperation and Peace Building, a Lebanese nongovernmental organization focused on Track II. 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