Last month the Chadian head of state, Mahamat Idriss Déby Itno, announced the release of his autobiography. It was French publisher VA Editions’ second launch in recent months of a title by an African leader in the run-up to a presidential election. In December it had published a memoir by Felix Tshisekedi, the president of the Democratic Republic of the Congo. The new book has been interpreted as the latest strand of Itno’s continuing efforts to portray himself as his own man, while also cultivating the fearsome reputation of his battle-tested father, Idriss Déby, before Chad goes to the polls on 6 May. The country of 17.7 million people has not had a peaceful or transparent transition of power since independence from France in 1960. Given the dearth of independent institutions, some international observers and local civil society leaders fear that the coming elections will be rigged. “It’s not a question of whether or not he [Itno] can win the election, because this is not an election that’s happening,” said Cameron Hudson, a former US state department official and now a senior fellow in the Africa Program at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies. “Has Chad ever had a free and fair election? Never in its history. Should we expect this to be a free and fair election? Absolutely not.” Déby’s reign was characterised by crushing his opponents. In April 2021, after winning a sixth term to extend his 30-year stint in power, he was killed in battle against rebels. A group of generals loyal to him quickly crowned his son leader of a transitional government initially meant to last for an 18-month period before elections. Three years on, Itno, is still in power. Road to power Also known as Midi after his initials or “Kaka” after the Chadian Arabic nickname for grandmother – a reference to how he was raised by Déby’s mother – 40-year-old Itno is a career soldier educated at the French military academy in Aix-en-Provence. He rose quickly through the ranks, becoming head of presidential guard before succeeding his father as head of state. But at less than 6 ft, he is physically less imposing than his father, and his rise by biological succession rather than through military domination has deepened perceptions that he is unworthy of the throne. He is also seen as less eloquent in French or Arabic and less malicious than his father. “Mahamat is the chosen one placed at the head of an existing system and this is an advantage because he didn’t have to go through the hassles his father went through,” said Remadji Hoinathy, a senior researcher at the Institute for Security Studies Central Africa and Lake Chad Basin. “But that means the system owes him less than it did his father. He has to do a lot in mastering the system, maintaining equilibrium and serving divergent interests.” Itno’s tenure thus far has been dominated by a quest for legitimacy. “He comes across as timid and reserved [and] people in Chad mock him for how he speaks,” said Hudson. “He is not seen as a strategist or tactician on the battlefield so it’s hard to say what his strengths are as a ruler. “Many people believe he was given the job when his father died because he could be controlled by the Zaghawa elders who surrounded his father.” Nevertheless, over his two years in power there have been some signs that Itno is indeed his father’s son, and committed to wielding the same tools of repression. In October 2022, protests broke out in the capital N’Djamena after elections were postponed. Several dozen people were shot dead by security agents, according to Human Rights Watch (HRW), and hundreds of demonstrators were detained for months at the infamous Koro Toro maximum security prison. Wakit Tamma, a coalition of opposition parties and civil society, was banned. “It is clear that he has learned how to rule based upon fear and intimidation,” Hudson said. “Some of the tactics he has used against political opponents and civilian opposition are the very same tactics his father used.” In February, Yaya Dillo, an opposition leader seen as the biggest electoral threat to Itno, was killed after a bizarre duel at his party headquarters with security agents. His death “highlights the dangers facing opposition politicians in Chad, particularly as elections approach”, said Lewis Mudge, HRW’s central Africa director. Only 10 of the 20 candidates who signalled an intention to run in this month’s vote have been cleared to do so. The Constitutional Council barred prominent politicians such as the former prime minister, Albert Pahimi Padacké. The main opposition to Itno and the ruling MPS Patriotic Movement is the prime minister, Succès Masra, of the left-leaning Les Transformateurs party. Few expect him to win and he is seen instead as a candidate of the future. Turning to Russia Allies of Chad, which has a reputation for a strong military and is an important regional stakeholder in the west’s counterinsurgency activity in the Sahel, are waiting to see how Itno will align himself geopolitically if he wins. Last month, authorities in N’Djamena threatened to expel US troops in the country. In January, dressed in a pristine starched white kaftan and carrying a walking staff in hand, Itno met the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, in the first visit by a Chadian leader to Moscow in half a century. The flirtation with Russia comes as relations with Chad’s colonial-era ruler, France, remain uncertain, despite backing for the Chadian regime from the French president, Emmanuel Macron. Sources say at least two generals in Itno’s cabinet speak Russian well, having trained there. In the last year Itno has also visited the UAE multiple times. Analysts say his approach is geared towards seeking legitimacy and financial aid for Chad, one of the world’s poorest countries. “We are not like a slave who wants to change master,” Itno said recently. “We intend to work with all the nations of the world, all the nations that respect us and want to work with us with mutual respect.” Conflict at home At home, he is striving to keep things under control in a country where governance is a combat sport. The opposition boycotted a referendum in December on a new constitution that failed to devolve power as they had campaigned for. Rebels also continue to lurk in the shadows, including Front for Change and Concord in Chad, an outfit led by Déby’s nephews. Sources say that for regime security, Itno now keeps a small circle of people from his youth, relying heavily on the former diplomat and customs official Idriss Youssouf Boy, his chief confidante and adviser. There are also underlying ethnic tensions. Itno’s mother and one of his three wives come from the Gouranes ethnic group, who inhabit Chad’s extreme north. Itno has brought more Gouranes people into his circle, creating suspicion among the Zaghawa, his father’s people in the north-east, who are deeply entrenched in the military and political elite. All is now set for 6 May. After the publication of Tshisekedi’s book Itno secured a controversial election victory marred by electoral irregularities and violence from domestic militia. A similar script could play out in DRC’s northern neighbour in the coming weeks.