Tories brace for heavy losses in English council elections and mayoral contests Hello and welcome to the Guardian’s live coverage of the 2024 local elections. It could be a long night for local Conservatives as the party braces for the potential of heavy electoral losses that could destabilise Rishi Sunak’s premiership. The elections, which are considered the last test of voters’ opinion before the upcoming general election, expected later this year, cover more than 2,600 seats across 107 English councils (metropolitan, unitary and district). Labour and the Conservatives are each defending about 1,000 seats, and psephologists predict that the Tories may lose about 500. Even the chancellor, Jeremy Hunt, is on record as saying the party expects to suffer “significant losses”. As well as councils in parts of England being chosen, 37 police and crime commissioners will also be picked across England and Wales, along with the London mayor and assembly, nine combined authority mayors and one single authority mayor (Salford). On top of all this, a byelection will select the new MP for Blackpool South, after former Conservative MP Scott Benton resigned in the wake of a lobbying scandal. Labour is expected to win. The results are expected early on Friday morning. I will be taking you through into the early hours and leading the blog until about 6am, bringing you the key results as they come in, with latest reactions and analysis. Here is a breakdown of what we are expecting to be called overnight: Councils: 12.30am: Broxbourne 1.30am: Hartlepool, Rochford, Sunderland 2am: Bolton, Gosport, Ipswich, Newcastle upon Tyne, North East Lincolnshire, South Tyneside, Wigan 2.30am: Chorley, Eastleigh, Fareham, Hart, Oldham, Portsmouth, Rushmoor, Southend-on-Sea 2.45am: Exeter 3am: Harlow, Kingston upon Hull, Lincoln, Sefton, Tameside, Thurrock 3.15am: Reading 3.30am: Colchester, Gateshead, Redditch, Stockport 4am: Peterborough, Plymouth 4.30am: Southampton 5.30am: Winchester Police & crime commissioners: 1.30am: Cumbria 2.30am: Avon & Somerset 3.00am: Lincolnshire You can read all the council results live on our tracker here. Conservatives "do not expect to hold Blackpool South seat" - report The first boxes have arrived at the count in Blackpool South, Rishi Sunak’s first big electoral test. The Conservatives do not expect to hold the seat after today’s byelection, a senior party source has told Sky News. The source said “the stars could not be more aligned against us” after the former MP Scott Benton resigned after being found guilty of breaching standards rules in a lobbying scandal. A Conservative source told Tamara Cohen, Sky News’ political correspondent, that the Tories expect losses of about 500 council seats tonight, as we reported in our opening post. Pat McFadden, Labour’s national campaign coordinator, has described the Blackpool South byelection as “historic” and has singled it out as the most important “election of the night”. McFadden, who is the Labour MP for Wolverhampton South East, said: The most important election of the night is the historic byelection in Blackpool, caused by yet more Tory chaos and scandal. It’s the only election today where voters have had the opportunity to directly reject Rishi Sunak’s party in Westminster. It’s going to be a long night and the full picture of results from local elections may not be clear until over the weekend, but we expect to see Labour gains that show we’re making progress in the places we need to win the next general election. Labour are the frontrunners to regain Blackpool South – which fell to the Conservatives as the “red wall” crumbled in 2019. The seat fell vacant after the former Tory MP Scott Benton resigned after breaching standards rules in a lobbying scandal. Benton won the once solidly Labour-voting constituency in the 2019 election with a 3,690 majority. Electoral Commission says majority of voters able to cast ballots despite stricter ID requirements The Electoral Commission said “most voters” were able to cast their ballots despite the stricter ID requirements. A spokesperson for the Electoral Commission said: Our initial assessment of the elections is that they were well-run, and millions of voters were able to exercise their democratic rights. This is a testament to the efforts of electoral administrators, who work tirelessly to ensure the smooth delivery and integrity of polls. A number of new measures from the Elections Act were in force at these elections, including voter ID for the first time in Wales and parts of England. The electoral community has been working hard to prepare voters for these changes. Most voters who wanted to vote were able to do so. We will now begin to collect evidence from voters, electoral administrators, partner organisations, and campaigners to understand their experiences of the elections and identify any potential obstacles to participation. Ministers have faced significant criticism over the limited number of acceptable forms of ID, particularly the decision to allow documents such as the older person’s bus pass but almost none issued to younger ones, such as other travel passes and student documents. The Electoral Commission warned last year that it was difficult to assess the consequences of requiring photo ID before voting. While much of the focus tonight will be on tightly held contests between Labour and the Conservatives, the Lib Dems will also have significant influence in the polls and are looking at Dorset council as their main target, writes the Observer’s policy editor, Michael Savage. Dorset, where they are aiming to become the largest party on the council, is controlled by the Tories. It would confirm a comeback in the south-west, on top of its progress in the “blue wall” home counties. The party will also hope to take control in Wokingham, represented at Westminster by John Redwood, in west Oxfordshire, whose MP was once David Cameron; and in Elmbridge, where Dominic Raab’s Westminster seat is a top target. The leader of the Liberal Democrats, Ed Davey, issued this statement after the polls closed at 10pm: Davey said: The message across the country today was loud and clear. Voters want an end to this appalling Conservative government. People are sick of the Conservative party’s endless infighting, unaffordable mortgages, an NHS in freefall and filthy sewage being pumped into their rivers and seas. They want change and they want to see the end of Rishi Sunak’s Conservative party in office. That is why, up and down the country, so many lifelong Conservative voters backed the Liberal Democrats today, because they know Liberal Democrat councillors will never take them for granted and fight for the issues they care about. What are some of the key results to look out for overnight? The Guardian’s political correspondent, Eleni Courea, has an excellent piece about the key results to look for overnight. Here is a snippet of her explainer: Early hours of Friday The result of the parliamentary election in Blackpool South will set the tone early on. Labour is expected to win back the seat, which fell vacant after the former Tory MP Scott Benton resigned after breaching standards rules in a lobbying scandal. Benton won the once solidly Labour-voting constituency in the 2019 election with a 3,690 majority. Between about 1.30am and 4am on Friday, 39 councils are expected to declare their results, giving a partial picture of the overall outcome. Among the councils due to declare at around 3am is Harlow, a key bellwether town and general election battleground where all 33 seats are up for grabs. Keir Starmer went to Harlow, which is now Tory-controlled, for his eve-of-poll campaign visit on Wednesday. Overnight results are also due to come in from Rushmoor, Thurrock and Redditch, all of which are Tory-controlled but which Labour hopes to take. George Osborne: It will be "Armageddon" if Ben Houchen loses Tees Valley mayoral race The former Conservative chancellor, George Osborne, has said that if Ben Houchen, the Conservative Tees Valley mayor, loses his seat then it will be “Armageddon” as that will signify a “massive landslide defeat” for the Tories. In 2021, Houchen secured the job with almost 73% of the vote and was seen as a standard bearer for Boris Johnson’s levelling up agenda. The most recent polls puts him and Labour’s Chris McEwan almost neck and neck. A conservative defeat could be the upset that risks creating the sort of panic among Tory MPs that could trigger a confidence vote in Rishi Sunak’s leadership. Speaking on the Political Currency podcast he hosts with former shadow chancellor, Ed Balls, Osborne said: If Ben Houchen loses it will be Armageddon – because at that point, people will say “we are absolutely headed now for a massive landslide defeat”. And there will be people in the Conservative parliamentary party saying: “change course, change leader”. They’ve already started talking about some of the policies that they would come up with. Not that I think they can change the political weather … You would never have guessed 20 years ago that the future of the Tory leadership would depend on how people are voting in Teesside. But I think right now, that is the case. Osborne also said that it would be “pretty bad” if Andy Street, the incumbent West Midlands mayor, loses his race. He said that the national Conservative brand would be the reason for his defeat, not his local record as mayor. Before the polls closed, Street had sent out a two-page letter to voters in the West Midlands in which Boris Johnson, the former prime minister, lavishes him with praise and dismisses the Tories’ record in Westminster. Like Houchen, Street is also facing a knife-edge vote. Osborne said: If Andy Street loses in the West Midlands, that’s pretty bad … [if that happens] I think Andy Street will probably come out and explain why he’s lost. And it’ll be clear he defied the national polls as far as he could, but ultimately, the Conservative brand brought him down. That would be bad for Sunak and that might well provoke a lot of talk about the leadership contest. Tees Valley result expected: 12.30pm, Tees Valley (Friday lunchtime) West Midlands result expected: 3pm (Saturday afternoon) Polls for council, mayoral and police and crime commissioner elections close in England and Wales It has just gone 10pm UK time and the polls have now closed across the country. Polls have been open since 7am for council, mayoral and police and crime commissioner elections in England and Wales. There has also been a parliamentary byelection in Blackpool South. There are no elections in Scotland or Northern Ireland, and no local council elections in Wales. Tories brace for heavy losses in English council elections and mayoral contests Hello and welcome to the Guardian’s live coverage of the 2024 local elections. It could be a long night for local Conservatives as the party braces for the potential of heavy electoral losses that could destabilise Rishi Sunak’s premiership. The elections, which are considered the last test of voters’ opinion before the upcoming general election, expected later this year, cover more than 2,600 seats across 107 English councils (metropolitan, unitary and district). Labour and the Conservatives are each defending about 1,000 seats, and psephologists predict that the Tories may lose about 500. Even the chancellor, Jeremy Hunt, is on record as saying the party expects to suffer “significant losses”. As well as councils in parts of England being chosen, 37 police and crime commissioners will also be picked across England and Wales, along with the London mayor and assembly, nine combined authority mayors and one single authority mayor (Salford). On top of all this, a byelection will select the new MP for Blackpool South, after former Conservative MP Scott Benton resigned in the wake of a lobbying scandal. Labour is expected to win. The results are expected early on Friday morning. I will be taking you through into the early hours and leading the blog until about 6am, bringing you the key results as they come in, with latest reactions and analysis. Here is a breakdown of what we are expecting to be called overnight: Councils: 12.30am: Broxbourne 1.30am: Hartlepool, Rochford, Sunderland 2am: Bolton, Gosport, Ipswich, Newcastle upon Tyne, North East Lincolnshire, South Tyneside, Wigan 2.30am: Chorley, Eastleigh, Fareham, Hart, Oldham, Portsmouth, Rushmoor, Southend-on-Sea 2.45am: Exeter 3am: Harlow, Kingston upon Hull, Lincoln, Sefton, Tameside, Thurrock 3.15am: Reading 3.30am: Colchester, Gateshead, Redditch, Stockport 4am: Peterborough, Plymouth 4.30am: Southampton 5.30am: Winchester Police & crime commissioners: 1.30am: Cumbria 2.30am: Avon & Somerset 3.00am: Lincolnshire