Euro 2024 is not the only major tournament taking place in June and July. Argentina go to the United States for the Copa América as reigning champions, having ended their 28-year wait for glory when they beat Brazil in the final in 2021. They followed that up by winning the World Cup in 2022, as Lionel Messi lifted the one trophy that had been missing from his vast collection. Argentina are the favourites to win the Copa América again this year, according to the Opta supercomputer, with Brazil not far behind. Opta have simulated the tournament 10,000 times and collated their findings to construct pre-tournament predictions. Argentina The holders are not always the favourites before major international tournaments – Italy were not well fancied before Euro 2024. But Argentina are the world’s best team, according to the current Fifa rankings, and it’s not hard to see why. They are stacked with talent. Supporting Messi in attack are Ángel Di María, who will retire from international football after the tournament, Julián Álvarez and Lautaro Martínez, while Alejandro Garnacho, Nicolás González and Ángel Correa are not bad options either. Paulo Dybala has not made the squad, such is the quality at Lionel Scaloni’s disposal. Enzo Fernández and Alexis Mac Allister are excellent midfielders, with Rodrigo De Paul bringing some flair to go with his bite. Emiliano Martínez is one of the best goalkeepers in world football. He thrives in the big moments and enjoys the pressure, as demonstrated in penalty shootouts at the last Copa América and World Cup. According to Opta’s model, he conceded eight fewer goals than anticipated based on the quality of shots he faced in the Premier League this season. Argentina have a 30.8% chance of winning the tournament and a whopping 50.5% likelihood of making the final. Their side of the draw looks kind, with Mexico and Chile the teams most likely to cause them a threat. This will almost certainly be Messi’s last Copa América. At the previous tournament in 2021, he finished as the joint-top scorer and also provided five assists. He will overtake Chilean great Sergio Livingstone for all-time appearances in the competition this year – they are currently tied on 34. Messi could also match or surpass record scorers Noberto Méndez and Zizinho (17 goals each). He has 13 as it stands. The Argentina captain will be ably supported. Lautaro Martínez finished top of the Serie A scoring charts and led Inter to the Scudetto. Álvarez contributed to 32 goals for Manchester City (19 goals, 13 assists) this season. And Di María scored nine times in Portugal’s top flight for Benfica this season, also setting up 10 goals and creating more chances (80) than any other player in the league. Argentina, who have played more matches (201) and scored more goals in the Copa (474) than any other team, have it all. They just need to put it together again to complete an era of dominance under Scaloni. Brazil Brazil coach Dorival Júnior was pretty ruthless in his selection process. Gabriel Jesus has missed out, even though he was fit by the end of the season. Casemiro has been cut due to his poor form for Manchester United. Richarlison and Neymar are injured, but Brazil still have plenty of talent. Vinícius Júnior, fresh from scoring in the Champions League final, is their leading light. He scored 24 goals for Real Madrid this season and attempted 286 dribbles – more than any other player in Europe’s top five leagues. Endrick is a superstar in the making. The 17-year-old, who will be linking up with Vinícius at Real Madrid next season, has taken the No 9 shirt for this tournament. After his brilliant header – from a Vinícius cross – against Mexico this month, Endrick has scored three goals for the Seleção in just five appearances. Those goals came in three consecutive matches; the last player to hit the net in four successive games for Brazil was Neymar in June 2021. This Brazil team perhaps lacks the magic of previous sides, but they have a streetfighter steel, with Lucas Paquetá, Bruno Guimarães and Douglas Luiz in midfield. If Brazil top their group, which includes Colombia, Paraguay and Costa Rica, they will not meet Argentina until the final, should both teams make it that far. Uruguay Uruguay, Argentina and Brazil have won the Copa América 39 times between them – 83% of the tournaments. Marcelo Bielsa’s team, who will be appearing at the tournament for the 46th time, should be considered as more than just dark horses. They thrashed Mexico 4-0 in a pre-tournament friendly last week, and they have already beaten Argentina and Brazil in World Cup qualifying – they are second in the 10-team group, behind Argentina. Luis Suárez, the country’s record goalscorer (68 goals in 138 caps) is in the squad and comes into the tournament in fine form, having scored 12 goals in MLS this season, averaging one every 96 minutes for Miami, where he dovetails brilliantly with his old friend Messi. Suárez’s goals have come from an xG of 7.9 – an impressive overperformance of 4.1. There are plenty of goals in the team. Darwin Núñez scored a hat-trick in that 4-0 victory over Mexico and is the top scorer in the World Cup qualifying group, with five. Federico Valverde is one of the world’s best all-round midfielders, while Ronald Araujo and José Giménez form a fearsome centre-back pairing. Flamengo’s Nicolás de la Cruz could shine, and Manuel Ugarte and Rodrigo Bentancur are also excellent. Uruguay will likely have to beat Brazil at some stage if they are to reach the final, but Bielsa’s side will have no fear. United States The hosts are fourth favourites according to the Opta supercomputer, but their chances are slim. Gregg Berhalter’s squad has plenty of potential – securing Folarin Balogun’s allegiance was something of a coup, though he has not had the greatest of seasons for Monaco. USA captain Christian Pulisic has thrived at Milan, but he can’t do it all on his own. Timothy Weah, Weston McKennie, Tyler Adams and Yunus Musah all have plenty of top-flight experience, and Haji Wright had an excellent season for Coventry City in the Championship, but the USA have lost three of their last five matches, including a 5-1 hammering at the hands of a rampant Colombia at the weekend. Two years before hosting the World Cup, USA are under pressure to perform. The hosts should get out of the group, probably behind Uruguay, but Panama will be no pushovers, even if Bolivia look weak. Colombia Colombia are the form team in South America – they are unbeaten in a whopping 22 matches, a run that dates back to March 2022, even though they did not qualify for the World Cup that year. Their vibrant fans were missed in Qatar and, having reached the semi-finals at the last Copa América in 2021, they will hope their side is ready to pop on the big stage again, 23 years after their sole triumph in the competition. Luis Díaz was top scorer at the last Copa with four goals, including some stunners. James Rodríguez is reaching the twilight of his career, but the former Real Madrid playmaker has been in sensational form for his country under Néstor Lorenzo, who has Colombia in a strong position to qualify for the next World Cup – they are third in the South American standings. The rest Bolivia have won the Copa América only once, as hosts in 1963. The Opta supercomputer does not fancy their chances of ending that run; they have the lowest chance of victory of all teams. It doesn’t fancy Jamaica either. Their best player – the Aston Villa forward Leon Bailey – will not be playing at this tournament following disparaging comments he made about the national team this year. Demarai Gray, Michail Antonio and Bobby De Cordova-Reid bring Premier League experience, but none of them possesses Bailey’s quality. Jamaica are in a group with Mexico, Venezuela and Ecuador, so have a decent chance of making the last eight, though not much hope of progressing beyond that. Panama reached the Concacaf Gold Cup final last year, but are unlikely to repeat that feat this year. The same goes for Paraguay, Venezuela, Peru, Costa Rica and Canada – Alphonso Davies and Jonathan David are excellent players, but unlikely to be enough to drag Jesse Marsch’s team to an unlikely triumph, though they did draw 0-0 with France to recover some confidence after a heavy defeat to the Netherlands. Chile won back-to-back Copas in 2015 and 2016 – and Alexis Sánchez, Arturo Vidal and Eduardo Vargas (one of the top all-time leading goalscorers in the tournament, with 14) are still in their ranks – but they are unlikely to lift the trophy for a third time. They do, though, have a decent chance of making it out of Group A alongside Argentina. Ecuador have a promising squad, with Moisés Caicedo the pick of the bunch, though they are still heavily reliant on Enner Valencia for goals. Mexico’s recent defeats to Brazil and Uruguay suggest they could be a big-name casualty. If they progress from their group, they will probably have to get past Argentina to reach the final. This is an article by Opta Analyst Follow Opta Analyst and Patric Ridge on X