This is a pivotal year for elections. About 80 democracies containing more than half of the world’s population have already held or will hold elections in 2024. Halfway through one of the great trials of democracy in modern times, it is worth taking stock. Elections have notably already taken place in India and for the European Parliament, some are being conducted almost as you read in France and the UK, and the main event is to come in November in the US. Among non-democracies, Iran is being forced to have one as a result of the death of its president and Israel may well end up with one. Both Iranian and Israeli elections are still fascinating as they give insights into how the dominant political forces debate among themselves the path forward. Democratic practices and the rule of law are under threat like never before. Social media does not help, exacerbating polarization and providing fertile ground for populism, not policies. Myth triumphs over fact. Common sense loses out to baser senses. Blaming the foreigner is rampant. Electoral gurus have long worked out that, in today’s world, this tends to work. Blaming the other is now an art form, yet winning elections is a science — numbers, data and algorithms. The first batch of foreigners to be vilified is, of course, the immigrants, who are always married to the term illegal, even when they are not. The European Parliament elections were evidence of this, with the far right making major gains, but thankfully it is still lagging behind the center-right European People’s Party for now. The ongoing French elections may turn on one issue: Can the French far right of the National Rally convince enough voters to hold their nose and empower Marine Le Pen. President Emmanuel Macron’s gamble has never looked like it was going to pay off. The rest of Europe is on tenterhooks. Bashing Muslims is also typically a feature. In France, the National Rally wants to expel “Islamist foreigners.” In India, Narendra Modi appealed as ever to his base Hindu nationalist sentiment. However, in perhaps the shock of the year so far, his Bharatiya Janata Party lost its parliamentary majority. Another result that highlighted how incumbent parties are not faring well was in South Africa, where in May’s elections the ruling African National Congress lost its majority for the first time in 30 years. Palestinians also get a mention in the blame game. Donald Trump’s diatribe against Joe Biden during their presidential debate included calling him “a bad Palestinian.” Palestinians just see two candidates who are stunningly comfortable in facilitating their genocide or, according to Trump, letting the Israelis “go and finish the job,” which is exactly what the US has been doing. But does the blame game work? Voters are not dumb. If blame games are your only party trick, electorates often see through this. Nigel Farage, who fronts the far-right Reform UK party, is prospering in part because of the collapse of the Conservative Party, but he cannot cut through enough to get even close to an all-out victory. When voters want to know what the economic policies are going to be, the far right struggles. In part, though, the US and Europe’s traditional parties have all hardened their anti-immigrant stances in response to the far right. In that sense, these merchants of hate are winning the debate, if not always the polls. As for the US, has there ever been an election where the fitness of the two main candidates for president — the country’s oldest ever candidate and a convicted felon —has been the driving factor? The first presidential debate last week can only have boosted the “anyone but these two” camp. Overall, barring a few outliers like Mexico, where the left triumphed, with Claudia Sheinbaum poised to become its first female president (successful female candidates have been sparse), democracies have drifted to the right, toward more conservative governments. Even in the UK, where Labour will win, that party is today depicted as being more centrist than left-leaning. It is a reflection, in part, of the tougher economic climate, as well as fears over identity. One victim of this is the drive to confront climate change, which is still seen by too many as a luxury that economies can ill afford. In the European elections, for example, the Greens won just 54 seats, down from 71. Future generations will rue this attitude. While blaming others is still the fashion, leaders should also take note. Electorates want better governance and management of finances. There is a prevailing sense of anger and frustration at the venality and ineptitude of entrenched elites. All of this holds promise for insurgent parties, including the reactionary populists. It is why incumbent leaders and parties have struggled. In the end, despite our soundbite-dependent, social media-driven age, slogans will only ever get you so far. Leaders will ultimately be judged by their performance and, all too often, this is being judged as disappointing.