Deputy prime minister reveals his choice for next Tory leader in leaked recording - report The deputy prime minister, Oliver Dowden, has told his constituents that the health secretary, Victoria Atkins, would be his preferred candidate to lead the Conservatives other than Rishi Sunak, the prime minister, the i reports. In a leaked recording, Dowden – who is a close politically ally to Sunak – reportedly said Atkins was the only other “star of his generation” capable of leading the Tories. Speaking at an “end of year social” constituency event in Hertsmere in December, where Atkins was a special guest, Dowden said: This is honestly the truth, when people ask me when I entered parliament, ‘who are the two stars, who are the stars of your generation?’ I said there’s only two people from my generation that I could see leading the Conservative party: Rishi Sunak or Vicky Atkins. Atkins last week did not deny speculation she may run for leader after the election. She has a safe seat, which is more than many cabinet colleagues could say, including even Sunak himself who, according to some polls, is at risk of losing his Richmond and Northallerton seat. Atkins’ 2019 majority was not far short of 29,000. Suella Braverman, Priti Patel, Kemi Badenoch, James Cleverly, Grant Shapps, Penny Mordaunt, Robert Jenrick and Tom Tugendhat are among the other potential leadership contenders (this is a useful explainer on the likely contenders here). Yesterday, Sunak hinted that he might not quit as Tory leader immediately if he loses the election on Thursday. The prime minister may come under pressure to stay on for a period of time so the party can reflect on what went wrong (assuming they lose badly) and to stop a rushed leadership election. Closing summary The deputy prime minister, Oliver Dowden, told his constituents that the health secretary, Victoria Atkins, would be his preferred candidate to lead the Conservatives besides Rishi Sunak, the prime minister. In a leaked recording, obtained by the i, Dowden reportedly said Atkins was the only other “star of his generation” capable of leading the Tories. Survation says it is 99% certain that Labour will win more seats than it did in 1997, with Keir Starmer’s party on course to win 484 seats in the general election. “The Conservatives and Liberal Democrats are in a close race to form the official opposition,” the pollster said in a post on X. Starmer confirmed that Labour is likely to continue the early release scheme for prisoners if it wins the election. The Labour party leader also said he will seek to avoid constant reshuffles if he becomes prime minister, saying he wants “stability” in ministerial appointments. John Swinney, Scotland’s first minister, called for a review into the timetable for UK general elections in light of concerns about people not getting postal votes on time. Starmer, meanwhile, urged the Post Office minister, Kevin Hollinrake, to meet the postal service over concerns that hundreds of people could miss out on casting their vote on polling day after their ballots failed to arrive. Health minister Maria Caulfield said Hollinrake was “urgently” investigating delays to postal ballots being delivered. Royal Mail hit back at criticism, insisting there is “no backlog” ahead of the election. Richard Tice, the former Reform UK leader who became its chair when Nigel Farage replaced him, claimed the Tories infiltrated his party with “Trojan horse” candidates ahead of the election with the intention of discrediting Reform UK. Sunak said Labour would be “unchecked and unaccountable” with a big majority. Starmer responded by saying he needs a big majority so that he has a “strong mandate” for change. The Green party released a poll showing it has an eight-point lead in the newly formed constituency of Bristol Central where co-leader Carla Denyer is challenging Thangam Debbonaire. An independent survey for the party by the pollsters WeThink suggest the Greens are on course to take 40% of the vote, compared to 32% for Labour. However, the poll also shows 18% of respondents “don’t know” which way they will vote. Keir Starmer has accused the Conservatives of desperate tactics amid claims that Tory criticism of his defence of family time was insensitive and had antisemitic undertones. With Rishi Sunak embarking on a marathon day of campaigning, beginning with a pre-dawn visit to a distribution centre and closing with a late-night rally, Tory ministers and aides sought to contrast these efforts with what they termed Starmer’s “part-time” approach. As an increasingly personal election campaign neared its end, the Conservatives pushed out “final warnings” about what they said a massive Labour majority would mean for taxes, migration and other policy areas. Downing Street chiefs believe the criticism of Starmer for saying he would maintain his current habit of trying to spend time with his wife and children after 6pm on Fridays “pretty well come what may” has resonated with voters. However, it has sparked an angry backlash, with senior Jewish figures saying the decision to target such a culturally significant time of the week – Starmer’s wife, Victoria, comes from a Jewish family – was ill-judged and deeply unfair. Reform UK have accused the police of failing to protect their candidates from “attacks and threats” on the campaign trail. The PA news agency reports: The party claimed that one of their candidates was “robbed, punched and kicked”, while another was told to “go home” by police while leafleting. In Falmouth, Reform have accused police of doing nothing in the two weeks since the party said a candidate was assaulted and robbed in a “hate crime” while out canvassing. Steve Rubidge, Reform UK candidate for Truro and Falmouth, said Devon and Cornwall police had done “nothing” about reports of him being attacked and having his campaign material stolen and destroyed on 15 June. Mr Rubridge claims he provided police with pictures and “massive clues to the likely identities” of those involved … A spokesperson for the Devon and Cornwall force said “police are still investigating the incident and inquiries remain ongoing”. Reform are also claiming that their candidate for Newcastle upon Tyne East and Wallsend, Janice Richardson, was told by Northumbria police officers not to leaflet due to “potential danger” of a pro-Palestine protest. The party claims police declined to protect Ms Richardson from “the extremists” and instead advised her not to leaflet, which they said would be “poking the bear”. Keir Starmer has called on a government minister to meet the postal service over concerns that hundreds of people could miss out on casting their vote on polling day after their ballots failed to arrive. The Labour leader said the Post Office minister, Kevin Hollinrake, should “get on with the job” of sorting out the problem that is believed to have hit Scotland, where the school holidays have already started, particularly badly. Hollinrake was said to be “urgently” investigating a failure to get ballot packs to people in some constituencies in time for polling day. However, Royal Mail sources said on Tuesday that he had not yet raised his concerns. Earlier, he had suggested Royal Mail should have anticipated extra demand for postal votes during the summer holidays amid fears that some could be left disfranchised because they are already overseas. Anas Sarwar, the Scottish Labour leader, would rather see Conservative MPs than SNP MPs elected, John Swinney, Scotland’s first minister, has said after Labour rejected calls to back his party to beat Douglas Ross. SNP Westminster leader Stephen Flynn has urged Labour to back his party in Aberdeenshire North and Moray East – where the Labour candidate was suspended and stripped of party support – to ensure Ross does not win the seat. The outgoing Scottish Tory leader announced in June he would stand in the stead of former MP David Duguid – who was barred by party bosses over ill health. But Sarwar rejected the call just hours after it was made, the PA news agency reports. “I am the leader of the Scottish Labour party, I want people to vote Scottish Labour,” he said during a visit to Inverclyde on Tuesday. “Scottish Labour is invested in every part of the country, so if you want to get rid of the Tories, if you want Scottish Labour representation, if you want Scotland to be at the heart of a Labour government, then you need to vote Scottish Labour – and that’s what I’m calling on people to do.” He said the Aberdeenshire North and Moray East seat is a “specific issue” due to the suspension of Andy Brown (for reportedly sharing pro-Russian material online), and he said his “only regret” is that voters there do not have the chance to support Labour. Swinney told the PA news agency later on: I think Anas Sarwar has just betrayed what he’s all about – he’d rather have a Tory than the SNP. Anas Sarwar has given a really important bit of clarity to the people of Scotland that the Labour party prefer the Tories, and we can see that from their policy programme because the Labour party are going to continue the Tory austerity that’s done such damage to our public services and our public finances. Only SNP MPs will campaign against austerity and protect Scotland and Scotland’s interests from austerity. Conservatives slump to historically low support in Wales - poll The Conservatives have slumped to a “record low” in Wales, according to a Barn Cymru poll conducted by YouGov for ITV Cymru Wales and Cardiff University. The poll put the Tories’ projected vote share at 16%, which would be lower than the amount they won in the 1997 general election (19.6%) when no Welsh Conservative MP was elected. ITV Wales also reports that the result would be the Conservatives’ worst electoral performance in Wales since the 1918 general election. The poll shows support for Labour has fallen slightly – 40% (-5) – but the party is still on course for a landslide victory. After boundary changes, Wales will elect 32 MPs, down from the previous 40. These changes are unlikely to undermine Labour’s dominant position in the southern valleys and cities, and no Labour seat is seriously threatened by the Boundary Commission alterations. Rob Davies is a reporter for the Guardian, primarily covering business Sajid Javid, the former Conservative chancellor of the exchequer, is to become a partner at a London investment firm founded by a trio of his former colleagues at Deutsche Bank. The former banker, who held seven ministerial positions in a 15-year political career, confirmed on Tuesday that he was joining Centricus, a private equity and asset manager based in Mayfair. He will start the role on 8 July. Javid has already earned about £450,000 as a consultant for the company, which has $42bn (£33bn) of assets under management and invests in everything from football to luxury hotels and 3D printing. The company began paying him £25,000 for up to 10 hours of work a month in March 2023, rising to £50,000 a month after he doubled his hours in April this year, according to the register of members’ interests. He will join Centricus as a partner after the general election, in a full-time role that will reunite him with the company’s two other partners and co-founders, Nizar Al-Bassam and Dalinc Ariburnu. Javid worked alongside both men at Deutsche Bank in the years leading up to – and during – the global banking crash, before he left to enter politics in 2009. Pollster is 99% certain that Labour will win more seats than it did in 1997 general election landslide Survation says it is 99% certain that Labour will win more seats than it did in 1997 (when Tony Blair cruised to victory in a landslide), with Keir Starmer’s party on course to win 484 seats in the general election. There are 199 seats which Blair would have won on current boundaries in 1997 and which Labour does not currently hold. “The Conservatives and Liberal Democrats are in a close race to form the official opposition,” the pollster said in a post on X. A probabilistic seat count, based on 34,558 interviews conducted online and by phone, puts Labour on course to win 484 seats, the Conservatives on 64 and the Liberal Democrats on 61. It expects the SNP to win about 10 seats, Reform UK seven, leaving Plaid Cymru and the Green party with three each. Former prime minister Boris Johnson has posted a message of support for Priti Patel, who is running to be re-elected in the constituency of Witham, in Essex. Patel, who was home secretary in Johnson’s cabinet and widely seen as a fierce ally of the former prime minister, won the seat in the 2019 general election with a majority of 24,082 for the Conservatives. She first was elected to the seat in 2010. Johnson said in a video posted to X: Priti has been a quite remarkable friend, colleague, but a brilliant minister as well, and of course, a great local MP. Priti was one of the original Brexiteers, and she is the person who really drove that Rwanda scheme, which, believe me, is still our best hope of stopping illegal cross channel gangs from bringing people into our country and all that will be put at risk by Keir Starmer and the Labour party. Unless you vote for Priti in Witham there is a risk that we will get an even bigger Labour majority, a really big Labour majority with more ‘wokery’, more illegal immigration, more pointless, limp kowtowing to Brussels and, of course, ever higher taxation for you and your family under Keir Starmer and the Labour party. Don’t let it happen. Stick with Prit. Nigel Farage, the Reform UK party leader, has said the Conservative party is “not the sort of club” he would like to join. Farage told Channel 5 News’ political editor, Andy Bell: The problem with the Westminster journalistic pack is they think being elected only matters inside that chamber in Westminster. As I rather proved I think back in 1999 – when three of us got elected to the European parliament and built a mass movement across the country on an issue that was unfashionable – however many of us get elected to that parliament, yes, we’ll be there, but more importantly, we’ll build a mass movement across the country. Quizzed about a hypothetical invitation to join the Conservative party in the future, Farage replied: “Not the sort of club I want to join.” Farage was also asked about Georgie David, the second Reform UK candidate who has quit the party, alleging that the vast majority of those standing for it in the general election are “racist, misogynistic and bigoted”. David, who had been Reform’s candidate for West Ham and Beckton, issued a statement through the Conservatives, the party she is now backing. “I just discovered earlier on today she was what the party called a ‘democracy candidate’ i.e. will anyone please stand?” Farage said. He said that Reform is a “start up” so it is suffering from “some start up problems” as fielding over 600 candidates was a “very, very difficult thing to do with a snap election”. Despite allegations of prejudice in its ranks, Reform still appears to be in a strong polling position, which would indicate that the party could exacerbate a defeat looming over the Conservatives. Farage denies there is any widespread misogyny or racism in the party. Deputy prime minister reveals his choice for next Tory leader in leaked recording - report The deputy prime minister, Oliver Dowden, has told his constituents that the health secretary, Victoria Atkins, would be his preferred candidate to lead the Conservatives other than Rishi Sunak, the prime minister, the i reports. In a leaked recording, Dowden – who is a close politically ally to Sunak – reportedly said Atkins was the only other “star of his generation” capable of leading the Tories. Speaking at an “end of year social” constituency event in Hertsmere in December, where Atkins was a special guest, Dowden said: This is honestly the truth, when people ask me when I entered parliament, ‘who are the two stars, who are the stars of your generation?’ I said there’s only two people from my generation that I could see leading the Conservative party: Rishi Sunak or Vicky Atkins. Atkins last week did not deny speculation she may run for leader after the election. She has a safe seat, which is more than many cabinet colleagues could say, including even Sunak himself who, according to some polls, is at risk of losing his Richmond and Northallerton seat. Atkins’ 2019 majority was not far short of 29,000. Suella Braverman, Priti Patel, Kemi Badenoch, James Cleverly, Grant Shapps, Penny Mordaunt, Robert Jenrick and Tom Tugendhat are among the other potential leadership contenders (this is a useful explainer on the likely contenders here). Yesterday, Sunak hinted that he might not quit as Tory leader immediately if he loses the election on Thursday. The prime minister may come under pressure to stay on for a period of time so the party can reflect on what went wrong (assuming they lose badly) and to stop a rushed leadership election. Sky News’ city editor, Mark Kleinman, reports that the Tories will unveil a letter signed by “scores of small business-owners” tomorrow in an attempt to convince undecided voters that Labour cannot be trusted in charge of the economy (a typical campaign attack line used against Labour by the Conservatives). Just to put the “scores” into context: there are millions of small businesses across the UK. Here is a snippet of the report: Sky News understands that the Tories are planning to publish a letter signed by between 100 and 150 SME bosses that will argue that a Labour government would risk damaging their business. Sources said the letter was expected to be released on Wednesday, the final day before Britain goes to the polls. Neither the text of the letter nor the names of the signatories were clear on Tuesday. A business-owner approached to sign it, but who declined, said he was surprised the Tories had not done more to exploit differences between the two main parties on potential capital gains tax changes during the campaign. One insider described it as “a last-ditch bid” to reverse some of the momentum behind Labour, which has published a series of letters during the election campaign backed by businesspeople. Labour has been borrowing from the Conservatives’ playbook in getting business leaders to endorse their economic plans ahead of the general election (as what happened in May when dozens of businesses leaders signed a letter backing the party’s economic plans). Facing the likelihood of heavy electoral losses on Thursday, the Conservatives appear to be targeting businesses and warning about Labour’s economic proposals in a last-ditch effort to reverse some of this momentum. With two days to go before the 4 July general election, the Redfield and Wilton Strategies survey of 20,000 voters has put Labour on 41% (-1) and the Conservatives on 22% (+3), while Reform UK is on 16% (-2) and the Liberal Democrats on 10% (-1). The strategic consultancy firm said in its analysis of the results that Labour’s national lead is below 20% in its polling for the first time since 10 March. The latest poll was conducted from 28 June to 2 July. As we reported earlier, Keir Starmer, the Labour party leader, has indicated that he may have to keep releasing prisoners early if he is elected prime minister amid fears jails could run out of space within days (see post at 17.08). Labour insiders have said the party would force through planning permission for new prisons but have not said how it would deal with an immediate overcrowding crisis. Starmer has made tackling serious crime a key pillar of his policy agenda and has vowed to introduce new penalties for offenders. This, along with more police officers on the streets, will likely lead to more people being charged and prosecuted, potentially making the overcrowding crisis in prisons more acute. Rishi Sunak has indicated that he will not blame his predecessors if he loses the election. As Politico reports, speaking to reporters, he said: You’ve got to just play the cards that you are dealt … There’s no point sitting there, going ‘well I wish someone had given me four aces’. That is all from me for today. Yohannes Lowe is taking over now.