Jamaal Bowman, a representative from New York to the US House, last week lost the Democratic primary election for his seat. Pro-Israel groups played a major role in defeating Bowman, who has been critical of Israel’s war in Gaza. The outcome demonstrates the continuing strength of the pro-Israel lobby in the US, but the decades-long consensus in favor of unconditional support for Israel is fraying nonetheless. Bowman was first elected to Congress in 2020 after defeating Democratic Rep. Eliot Engel in the Democratic Party’s primary election. Engel had served in Congress for years and was one of the most notable supporters of Israel. Bowman is a left-wing progressive who defeated Engel for several reasons, including a desire for change. Bowman became a member of the “Squad,” an unofficial small group of progressive members of the House. Bowman ran on the slogan “Jobs and Education, Not Bombs and Incarceration,” along with social justice principles. He condemned Hamas’ Oct. 7 attack on Israel. Soon after Israel’s military response began in Gaza, he called for a ceasefire. As the war went on, Bowman was critical of Israel, including accusing the country of genocide. The American Israel Public Affairs Committee — the premier pro-Israel lobby — has a long history of using its funds and influence to support staunchly pro-Israel candidates for Congress and oppose those who might question Israel. Its success as a lobby promoting Israel’s interests acted as a deterrent to members of Congress who might have questioned unconditional support for Israel but chose not to, as they saw little to gain and much to lose. AIPAC played a significant role in shaping the decades-long, bipartisan consensus in Washington and across the US in favor of Israel. The intensity of Israel’s response in Gaza has further eroded support for Israel among young Americans and Democrats Kerry Boyd Anderson That consensus has started to fray in recent years, as polls showed that younger Americans and Democrats were increasingly learning more about Palestinians’ perspectives and questioning some of the assumptions behind the pro-Israel consensus. In March 2023, a Gallup poll showed that, for the first time, more Democrats said they sympathized with Palestinians (49 percent) than Israelis (38 percent). Since October, the intensity of Israel’s response in Gaza has further eroded support for Israel among young Americans and Democrats. A Gallup survey from February showed falling favorability rates for Israel among young American adults and significant declines among Democrats and independent voters. These changes raised serious concerns among pro-Israel groups. As part of its response, AIPAC and its allies looked for members of Congress who criticized Israel and appeared electorally vulnerable. Bowman was a likely target, with several vulnerabilities. Earlier this year, the lines of his district were shifted in ways that might have benefited his opponent. Bowman’s progressive stance might have been too far left for many of his constituents and he had attracted negative attention by pulling a fire alarm in a House building. His racially diverse district included constituents who supported his position on Israel, those who adamantly opposed it and others with little opinion on the issue. Furthermore, AIPAC and other pro-Israel community members were able to recruit an able opponent in George Latimer, an experienced local politician who supports Israel. Some commentators have suggested that these vulnerabilities alone are primarily responsible for Bowman’s loss, but it is not reasonable to overlook the massive amount of spending by pro-Israel groups. These groups spent more than $18 million to support Latimer and attack Bowman, with AIPAC and its affiliates providing the majority of this funding — making it the most money spent on a primary election for the House in US history. Most of the advertisements that the groups paid for did not mention Bowman’s criticism of Israel, focusing on other issues instead, in a strategy designed to appeal to moderate voters for whom the Middle East conflict is not a priority. In the longer term, pro-Israel perspectives are unlikely to maintain the dominance that they have long enjoyed in the US Kerry Boyd Anderson AIPAC and its allies have demonstrated their ability to punish members of Congress who criticize Israel. Their next target appears to be Cori Bush, a “Squad” member from Missouri who has criticized military assistance to Israel. Bush has weaknesses unrelated to her views on Israel that make her vulnerable ahead of a primary in August. However, it will be more difficult for AIPAC and its allies to use such examples to silence criticism than in the past. Several members of Congress who publicly criticize Israel remain in strong electoral positions, including Rashida Tlaib, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Ayanna Pressley. More broadly, groups like AIPAC have lost full control of the narrative. The electoral defeat of one or several members of Congress is important and consequential for US policy, especially in the short term. In the longer term, however, pro-Israel perspectives are unlikely to maintain the dominance that they have long enjoyed in the US. Within the Democratic Party, many voters, especially younger ones, are now open to hearing criticisms of Israel. This is a huge change, even if it does not yield short-term policy results. Furthermore, spending massive amounts of money from outside the local community to unseat a member of Congress might prove somewhat counterproductive. The fact that AIPAC’s anti-Bowman ads rarely, if ever, mentioned Israel may have been an effective strategy, but it also looks disingenuous. At a time when many Americans are increasingly fed up with the lobbyists and the political class that runs the country, AIPAC’s massive spending draws accusations of “buying” an election and cementing elite interests. With Bowman’s defeat, pro-Israel groups won the battle, but they might also be losing the war to maintain bipartisan, unconditional support for Israel. Kerry Boyd Anderson is a professional analyst of international security issues and Middle East political and business risk. X: @KBAresearch