Australian government data says national greenhouse gas emissions have come down steadily over the past two decades and are now 29% less than in 2005. But another calculation, based on the government’s data, says the emissions that matter have barely moved, dropping only 2.5% over that time. Some analysts believe the second calculation is the true measure of Australia’s heat-trapping pollution – and that it reveals how little has been achieved in cutting CO2. What should we make of this? In the charts below we explain Australia’s progress in cutting greenhouse gas emissions and the latest on what’s happening with the climate crisis. Australia’s ‘fair share’ of emissions Australia has a legislated 2030 emissions target: a 43% cut compared with 2005 levels. Government projections released in late 2023 suggest the country is slightly behind the pace necessary to meet this target. But the analysis doesn’t answer a key question: is 43% enough? The carbon budget countdown clock below shows how long Australia has left on the current trajectory until it has emitted its “fair share” of future emissions. You can toggle between calculations of Australia’s fair share in limiting global heating to 1.5C and 2C, the two thresholds mentioned goals in the landmark 2015 Paris agreement. For 1.5C, the country is likely to have emitted its fair share before 2030. For 2C, it is likely to reach that level between 2030 and 2040. Scientists warn there will be a significant and devastating difference in the damage caused by heating of 1.5C and 2C. What Australia emits According to the latest national greenhouse gas inventory, national emissions decreased by 0.5% in the year to December 2023. As mentioned above, the government says over the longer term – since 2005 – national emissions are down 29%. But this is only true if you include changes in emissions from forests and the land in the calculation, and this is a contentious point. You can see this by toggling in the chart above to exclude emissions from what is known in carbon accounting as “land use, land-use change and forestry”, or LuluCF.