Rishi Sunak’s government released more than 10,000 prisoners up to 70 days early, figures reveal, as the new justice secretary prepares to announce further emergency measures to ease another overcrowding crisis in jails. Ministry of Justice figures show that 10,083 prisoners were allowed to walk free under the end of custody supervised licence (ECSL) scheme between October 2023 and June 2024 in England and Wales. Under the scheme, announced in October 2023, some prisoners could be freed 18 days before their conditional release date. That was increased to 35 days in March and then to 70 days in May. Shabana Mahmood, the justice secretary and lord chancellor, will afternoon announce on Friday that low-risk prisoners will automatically be released after serving 40% of their sentence for the first time. It is expected to this year allow several thousand prisoners to leave early, starting in September. Sources said the numbers would be eased out gradually. The measure is expected to be applied to prisoners serving sentences of under four years and will not apply to those convicted of violent, sexual or terrorism-related offences. It follows warnings from senior police and prison sources that law and order could break down within days if prisons can no longer accept inmates. A senior police source said criminals would take advantage by committing crimes they would not usually do such as looting, while former prisoners released on licence would be more likely to reoffend because they knew they would be less likely to be recalled. The government’s expected plans are “the least worst option”, said the Metropolitan police commissioner, Mark Rowley. “Prisons are very, very close to full and filling up day in day out. The worst possible thing would be for the system to block, because the system blocks in prisons if they get completely full. That kicks back into the courts and into what we do. And that’s really dangerous for the public,” he told ITV’s Good Morning Britain. Only 708 places remained in the adult male estate as of 8 July, according to the latest available government figures. The adult male prison population on Monday was 83,755 out of a “usable operational capacity” of 84,463, the data suggests. Mahmood is expected to make the announcement after visiting HMP Bedford and HMP Five Wells in Northamptonshire on Friday. For the prison system to run smoothly and effectively, officials ideally want to keep a buffer of 1,425 cell spaces free in men’s prisons at all times to make sure there is enough space to hold sudden influxes of inmates. Most prisoners serve 50% of their sentence in jail, with the remaining 50% served on licence and under threat of being returned to prison if they break their parole conditions. Alex Chalk, the previous justice secretary, has confirmed that he also prepared plans to release some prisoners after 40% of their sentence and to send fewer people to jail in the first place but these were shelved over fears of a lack of support in parliament. Campaigners against violence against women and girls remain concerned about whether the new proposals will protect women, particularly victims of domestc abuse. It emerged that some domestic abusers were released under the ECSL scheme announced by Chalk. The aunt of Zara Aleena, who was murdered by a man who had been out of prison on licence for nine days, said releasing inmates after serving 40% of their sentences could be “a dangerous gamble with public safety” if the probation service was unable to cope. Farah Naz told BBC Breakfast: “If the system cannot deal with those people being released into the community, then those people are not going to be supervised adequately. It was a man that was emboldened because he was not supervised, he was not assessed, he was constantly allowed to do what he wanted to do, and therein lies a dangerous gamble with public safety with this move right now.” In the case of Aleena’s killer, Jordan McSweeney, Naz said the probation service was “not fit to deliver supervision” or “act in a timely way” when he broke his licence conditions. Harriet Wistrich, the founder of the Centre for Women’s Justice, said: “Clearly there is a crisis in prisons that needs to be addressed. However, where someone represents a danger or risk then early release could have disastrous consequences, particularly where the probation service and adequate supervision of those released on licence is also on its knees.”