Iran’s leaders are closely monitoring the US presidential election campaign due to its significant implications for their country. The outcome of the election is expected to have a direct impact on Iran’s political and economic landscape. As a result, recent presidential debates and political discussions within Iran have increasingly centered on the US elections, with particular emphasis on the potential of Donald Trump securing another term in office. This heightened focus reflects the considerable interest in how the election result might influence US-Iranian relations and broader geopolitical dynamics. The leaders in Tehran generally prefer it when Democrats win US elections due to the range of favorable policies and diplomatic approaches typically associated with the Democratic Party. Historically, Democratic administrations have shown a greater inclination toward negotiating and engaging in dialogue with Iran, rather than adopting a confrontational stance. This diplomatic engagement often includes a more lenient approach toward sanctions, which can alleviate some of the economic pressures faced by Iran. Such policies can create a more favorable environment for Iran’s economy and international relations. This perspective was highlighted last month by Javad Zarif, the former Iranian foreign minister, during a televised discussion focused on international relations. Zarif made this observation in response to claims from the conservative side, which asserted that it was under President Ebrahim Raisi’s leadership that Iran managed to effectively market its crude oil, notwithstanding the restrictive US sanctions. As Zarif put it: “When Biden came to power, he adopted the policy of loosening the screws (of enforcing Iran sanctions). Let Mr. Trump return to power, and then see what your (conservative) friends will do.” For example, in the first quarter of 2024, Iranian oil exports saw a dramatic increase, reaching 1.82 million barrels per day — a level not seen since October 2018, shortly before the Trump administration reintroduced sanctions on Iran’s oil sector. This rise in export volumes blatantly challenges the sanctions regime. The continued growth in exports has significant consequences for Iran’s financial situation, as oil revenues traditionally make up nearly 80 percent of the country’s total income. Moreover, Democrats have been more open to reentering or renegotiating agreements that aim to address the Iran nuclear program. For instance, the Obama administration’s negotiation of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action was a significant step in this direction, providing Iran with sanctions relief in exchange for curbs on its nuclear activities. A Democratic administration might be more inclined to revive or modify such agreements, offering Iran a path to greater international legitimacy and economic benefits. In contrast, Republican administrations have been known for their hard-line policies, including Trump’s withdrawal from the JCPOA and the reimposition of severe sanctions. This approach increases the economic strain on Iran and heightens tensions. Therefore, Iranian leaders often view a potential Democratic victory as more advantageous, as it could lead to reduced sanctions, increased opportunities for negotiation and a less restrictive approach toward Iran’s nuclear ambitions, ultimately benefiting its strategic and economic interests. For instance, during President Trump’s tenure, the situation was starkly different to today. By the time Trump left the White House, the Iranian government was facing severe political and financial difficulties. Tehran’s economy was nearing collapse, with inflation and unemployment reaching unprecedented levels. The regime struggled to pay its employees. The economic conditions in Iran became so dire that some officials even warned of a potential revolt and the possible collapse of the regime. By the time Trump left the White House, the Iranian government was facing severe political and financial difficulties. Dr. Majid Rafizadeh In addition, Iran was in survival mode and desperately needed cash to maintain its power, as oil exports dwindled under the Trump administration. Before Trump reimposed sanctions on Tehran and implemented the “maximum pressure” policy, Iran was exporting more than 2 million barrels of oil daily. However, by the end of Trump"s first term, Iran’s oil exports had plummeted to about 70,000 barrels a day. Additionally, Iran’s currency, the rial, significantly depreciated in value, further exacerbating the regime’s financial struggles. Under the Trump administration, sanctions exerted substantial pressure on the Iranian government, forcing its leaders to cut funding to militias, allies and terror groups. Militants reportedly did not receive their salaries or benefits, making it challenging for them to continue fighting on behalf of Tehran. As one Iranian-backed militia fighter in Syria told The New York Times at the time: “The golden days are gone and will never return. Iran does not have enough money to give us.” Without Iran’s financial and military support, many militia and terror groups would struggle to survive. This point has been openly acknowledged by Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, who stated in 2016: “We are open about the fact that Hezbollah’s budget, its income, its expenses, everything it eats and drinks, its weapons and rockets, are from Iran. As long as Iran has money, we have money ... Just as we receive the rockets that we use to threaten Israel, we are receiving our money. No law will prevent us from receiving it.” In conclusion, Iran’s leaders favor the election of a Democratic president due to the historical tendencies of the party’s administrations to engage diplomatically and offer more lenient policies toward Iran. From their perspective, the potential for renewed negotiations, eased sanctions and a less restrictive approach to Iran’s nuclear program represents a much better scenario for Tehran’s economic and strategic interests. This is in stark contrast to the more robust stance typically associated with Republican administrations, particularly that of Trump, whose presidency was marked by America’s withdrawal from the JCPOA and the imposition of severe sanctions. Therefore, a Democratic victory is seen by the Iranian leaders as offering a more favorable environment compared to the challenges posed by a potential return to power of Trump. • Dr. Majid Rafizadeh is a Harvard-educated Iranian American political scientist. X: @Dr_Rafizadeh