NATO has decided to open its first liaison office in the Middle East in Jordan, reflecting the alliance’s strategy to increase its influence in the region. Although the decision was discussed during the NATO Summit in 2023, it is significant when considering the broader regional context. Opening a representative office in Jordan underscores the country’s geopolitical importance, as it is situated at the heart of the Middle East and shares borders with Syria, Israel and Saudi Arabia. This decision signals to the wider region that NATO’s interests extend beyond Europe. However, at the same time, it should not be overstated, as NATO’s engagement with Middle Eastern states is not a new strategy. Since the 1990s, NATO has engaged closely with states like Jordan, Algeria, Egypt, Israel, Mauritania, Morocco and Tunisia through its Mediterranean Dialogue. Established in 1994, the dialogue aims to facilitate political dialogue with Middle Eastern countries. In the early 2000s, NATO launched the Istanbul Cooperation Initiative to strengthen its political and military relations with members of the Gulf Cooperation Council. Turkiye, a key NATO member with the second-largest army in the alliance after the US, played a pivotal role in initiating a strategic dialogue between NATO and four of the six GCC states: Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar and the UAE. The goal was to foster cooperation in the field of security within the Middle East, a move Turkiye actively supported. Through the Mediterranean Dialogue and the Istanbul Cooperation Initiative, NATO has engaged with 11 countries in the Middle East and North Africa region to broaden the scope of political discussions on various regional issues. In this context, the alliance opened the NATO-ICI Regional Centre in Kuwait in 2017, the first of its kind. This center aims to support and enhance practical cooperation between NATO and its Gulf partners, focusing on strategic analysis, military cooperation and public diplomacy. For decades, NATO’s image in the Middle East has been contentious, especially among the public, partly due to its intervention in Libya, which exacerbated negative perceptions. However, as regional states face increasing threats of different natures and from multiple sources, NATO aims to contribute to the region’s stability through military expertise and cooperation. In this regard, NATO has trained Iraqi officers in Jordan to improve their counterterrorism skills and this training has now extended to Baghdad. For decades, NATO’s image in the Middle East has been contentious, especially among the public Sinem Cengiz When considering the new office in Jordan, three significant points arise. First, Jordan’s military has collaborated closely with NATO forces for years and has participated in UN peacekeeping missions. Secondly, NATO’s choice of Jordan could be attributed to the fact that the Istanbul Cooperation Initiative-member GCC states are relatively small and may not be ready to align themselves openly with NATO, often preferring hedging policies in the region. Thirdly, in April, Jordan played a crucial role in intercepting Iranian missiles targeting Israel as they traversed Jordanian airspace, despite Amman’s opposition to Israel’s actions in Gaza. However, as the decision to open the office predates the Gaza conflict, it seems unlikely that it is directly related to the conflict. Yet, the potential geopolitical implications of this decision remain to be seen. NATO appears to have an urgent strategic necessity to expand in the region; but how is this perceived by Ankara? Turkiye has been a crucial member of NATO since joining in 1952. Its Incirlik Air Base serves as a vital launching point for Western operations in the Middle East, including flights over Syria and Iraq during counterterrorism campaigns. Turkiye aims to play an active role in NATO’s outreach efforts in the Middle East, Eastern Mediterranean and Gulf. From the outset, it has supported initiatives such as the Mediterranean Dialogue and the Istanbul Cooperation Initiative. However, although Turkiye supports NATO’s efforts to develop cooperation with regional states, doubts remain about the alliance’s true ambitions in the Middle East, partly due to its stance on recent regional crises. Turkiye prefers to see NATO establishing bilateral partnerships with regional countries with the aim of helping to ease the tensions that threaten these states through effective security and political collaborations. For instance, Turkiye would prefer NATO’s involvement in the region to include efforts to end the Israeli war on Gaza. Turkiye would prefer NATO’s involvement in the region to include efforts to end the Israeli war on Gaza Sinem Cengiz While Turkiye’s NATO allies express a desire for increased engagement with regional states, they have largely remained distant from the Gaza war, which poses threats to the stability of the wider region. NATO has so far only called for a humanitarian pause, not a ceasefire. Given its previous involvement in several crises, this negligence raises questions about NATO’s approach to developing relations with regional states while seemingly ignoring opportunities to exert pressure on Israel. Turkiye has pledged to block any cooperation between the alliance and Israel until a permanent ceasefire is in place in Gaza. NATO’s decision to expand by opening its first Middle East liaison office is a significant step. Yet, for Turkiye, this expansion presents both opportunities and challenges. From one perspective, the opening of the office is seen as an attempt to curb Russian and Iranian influence in the region, particularly through Syria. This move raises the potential for escalating rivalry between NATO and Russia, which could certainly have adverse implications for regional states, including Turkiye. The last thing the region’s states need is more tension. As a member of the alliance, Turkiye aims to play a crucial role in NATO’s Middle Eastern strategy, with the priority being to enhance the security of regional states, rather than risking their security, through a more active involvement in resolving ongoing conflicts. • Sinem Cengiz is a Turkish political analyst who specializes in Turkey’s relations with the Middle East. X: @SinemCngz