A court in Thailand is set to decide the fate of the progressive opposition party, Move Forward, which received the most votes in last year’s elections, in a case which kicks off a week of potential political upheaval in the country. On Wednesday the constitutional court will rule on an electoral commission request to dissolve Move Forward, after the same court in January found its proposal to amend a law protecting the monarchy from criticism risked undermining Thailand’s system of governance with the king as head of state. In 2023 Move Forward’s anti-establishment agenda won huge support among voters, but it was unable to form a government after clashing with Thailand’s powerful nexus of old money families, conservatives and the military, to which reforming the lese-majesty law is a step too far in a country where royalists regard the monarchy as sacrosanct. Move Forward’s influential rivals blocked the party from forming a government last year but it remains the biggest force in parliament with an agenda that includes military reform and undoing big business monopolies. The party denies wrongdoing and was ordered to drop its campaign on the royal insults law. It is hopeful it will escape dissolution, arguing the election commission’s complaint did not follow proper procedures, but analysts fear the case could reignite a power struggle. If Move Forward is disbanded, 11 current and former party executives, including Pita Limjaroenrat, who led the party to victory in the election, could be banned from politics and prohibited from forming a new party. Its surviving lawmakers will keep their seats and are expected to re-organise into another party, as they did in 2020 when its predecessor, Future Forward, was dissolved. Wednesday’s case comes as cracks appear in an uneasy truce between the royalist establishment and another longtime rival, the populist ruling party, Pheu Thai, with prime minister Srettha Thavisin facing possible dismissal by the same court next week over a cabinet appointment. He denies wrongdoing. Conservative senators alleged he violated the constitution by appointing to cabinet a former lawyer who was once jailed, whom the senators said did not meet ethical requirements. “Once again, political risk and uncertainty is reaching a crescendo,” said Nattabhorn Buamahakul, Managing Partner at government affairs consultancy, Vero Advocacy. “These highly consequential decisions, the fate of parliament’s biggest party and the PM’s seat could lead to lawmakers switching parties, more bargaining and – as we have previously seen – street demonstrations,” she added.