The relationship between Egypt and Turkiye has experienced significant and varied developments over the past decade, transitioning from a state of disagreement and tension that almost escalated into open conflict to a new phase of rapprochement and constructive dialogue. This relationship, shaped by multiple geopolitical and regional factors, reflects deep changes in the position of both countries toward each other, and on regional and international issues. To understand the current shift in Egypt-Turkiye relations, it is necessary to review the background of the tensions that arose between the two following the so-called Arab Spring in 2011, a time when the region witnessed drastic political changes. Turkiye, under the leadership of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, was one of the countries that supported the Arab uprisings, especially those that brought Islamist groups to power, such as the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt. The uprisings led to the removal of former President Hosni Mubarak after 30 years in power, which paved the way for the Muslim Brotherhood to take control. Consequently, Mohammed Morsi, a member of the Brotherhood, assumed the presidency of Egypt in 2012. At that time, Egyptian-Turkish relations were at their peak, marked by close cooperation between the two countries’ leaders. Turkiye, under Erdogan’s leadership, viewed Morsi’s rise as a positive development, in line with its broader support for Islamist movements in the region. However, Morsi’s presidency did not last long. In 2013, Egyptians ousted the Brotherhood-affiliated leader following widespread popular protests, supported by the Egyptian military led by Abdel Fattah El-Sisi, the defense minister at the time. Ankara strongly condemned Morsi’s ousting, supported him, and denounced his removal in international forums, leading to clear tension in relations with Cairo. This was accompanied by frequent Turkish criticism of the new Egyptian authority, and a refusal to recognize the new government, resulting in a severe deterioration in relations and almost a decade of diplomatic estrangement. During this period, mutual trust was absent, and conflicting positions emerged on several regional issues. The discord was further exacerbated by the two countries’ opposing stances on various regional conflicts, especially in Libya, where Turkiye supported the Government of National Accord, while Egypt backed the Libyan National Army led by Khalifa Haftar. As relations deteriorated, Egypt and Turkiye moved into a phase of political and diplomatic escalation, halting official visits, withdrawing ambassadors, and filling speeches with mutual criticism. The tension also extended to other areas, such as the media and economy, with both countries seeking to limit the other’s influence. For instance, Turkiye supported media channels opposing the Egyptian regime. The real shift in Egyptian-Turkish relations began in 2021, when the two countries began “exploratory talks” aimed at rebuilding ties. This step came after both realized the need to move beyond old disputes, and adapt to regional and global changes. The geopolitical landscape in the Middle East and the world had undergone significant alteration since the peak of the conflict between Egypt and Turkiye. Several factors contributed to the move toward reconciliation. The region began what could be called a realignment of regional alliances. The Middle East witnessed a wave of diplomatic realignments driven by changing power dynamics and a desire for stability. Economic considerations cannot be overlooked. Both Turkiye and Egypt have faced significant economic challenges in recent years. Turkiye has been struggling with a severe economic crisis characterized by high inflation and a depreciating currency, while Egypt has been working to stabilize its economy through reforms and international aid. Both countries realized that it was necessary to enhance cooperation rather than confrontation in order to open new avenues for economic partnership that would benefit both parties. Regional security was also an important factor, as both Cairo and Ankara understood that regional stability depended on coordination between major regional powers. In Libya and Syria, there were emerging understandings on how to end conflicts and reach political solutions, with the realization that political settlement is the only viable path to stability. Both countries have faced significant economic challenges in recent years. Dr. Abdellatif El-Menawy Moreover, both countries faced pressure from international actors to ease tensions, particularly as the US shifted its focus from the Middle East to Asia. With declining direct interest in the region from Washington, regional powers such as Egypt and Turkiye needed to strengthen their relations to protect their interests. This shift prompted both countries to reposition themselves in the new global order. Clearly, a cooperative and coordinated relationship could enhance their ability to negotiate with global powers and give them a degree of decision-making independence, even if within certain limits. Regarding the restoration of relations, the turning point in the relationship occurred in February 2024, when Erdogan made a historic visit to Cairo at the invitation of El-Sisi. This visit marked a significant milestone in the reconciliation process, being the first official trip by a Turkish leader to Egypt since the ousting of the Muslim Brotherhood regime in 2013. The visit was characterized by a warm reception and high-level discussions on various issues, including trade, investment, regional security, and cultural exchange. The February visit sent a strong message to the international community that both countries were serious about mending their relations and exploring opportunities for cooperation. It also emphasized the importance of direct dialogue in resolving long-standing disputes. Joint statements issued during the visit reaffirmed a commitment to building a “new chapter” in bilateral relations based on mutual respect and shared interests. Now, the upcoming visit of El-Sisi to Ankara raises the question: What can we expect? There are high expectations, with several key issues likely to be on the agenda that could shape the future of Egypt-Turkiye relations as they enter a new phase. Several areas could see fruitful cooperation, with economic cooperation being one of the most important, particularly in the fields of energy, infrastructure, and trade. Turkish investments in Egypt constitute a significant part of the foreign direct investments, and political understandings could enhance these investments and increase the volume of trade exchange. The Middle East conflicts, particularly those in Libya and Syria, may also be on the agenda, as both sides recognize that a continuation of the troubling situation is not in their favor. The visit could lead to progress in cooperation between the two countries on the issues of Libya and Syria, as Egypt and Turkiye have shared interests in regional stability, and their coordination could contribute to achieving lasting political solutions. It is true that the Egyptian president’s visit to Turkiye carries many opportunities, but politics and history always teach us lessons, the most important of which is that there are no opportunities without challenges. Despite the significant opportunities for cooperation, challenges remain. Among these are ideological differences that still exist, particularly regarding support for Islamist groups. These differences could hinder reaching agreements on some sensitive issues if there is no trust in the parties’ commitment to what they promise. Turkiye has taken concrete steps in this regard, but there is still anticipation regarding the seriousness and sustainability of this new Turkish approach. Additionally, Turkiye and Egypt may find themselves in conflicting positions in the future over other regional issues. Overcoming this requires sufficient clarity in managing the relationship between the two countries in its new phase. Furthermore, the impact of international pressures on this relationship cannot be ignored. Pressures from actors such as the US, Russia, or China could influence the trajectory of relations between the two countries if they find that this rapprochement affects their interests. Again, the way the relationship between the two countries is managed will play a significant role in dealing with these pressures if they arise. Recent progress in bilateral relations between Egypt and Turkiye suggests that both sides are ready to overcome these challenges in pursuit of common goals. The key to the success of this reconciliation will be sustained political will, pragmatic diplomacy, and a focus on areas of shared interest. By building on the momentum of recent high-level visits and translating political goodwill into tangible actions, Egypt and Turkiye have the opportunity not only to strengthen their relations but also to establish a strategic partnership that could contribute to the stability and prosperity of the region. • Dr. Abdellatif El-Menawy is a critically acclaimed multimedia journalist, writer and columnist who has covered war zones and conflicts worldwide. X: @ALMenawy