The far-right Alternative für Deutschland party appears to have narrowly missed out on victory in an election in the German state of Brandenburg, according to exit polls, three weeks after making historic gains in two other regions. In what had been widely interpreted as a referendum on the federal government of Olaf Scholz ahead of next autumn’s general election, his Social Democratic party (SPD) appeared at the 11th hour to have clawed back its lead over the anti-immigrant populists who had been on course for months to seize victory in the state for the first time. Exit polls pointed to an almost photo finish, with the SPD having polled 31.3% to the AfD’s 29.5%, and with both parties making gains of 5 to 6 points on their performance last time. The fledgling leftist conservative Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), a pro-Kremlin party which has called for military aid to Ukraine to be halted, secured 12%, making it a likely contender in a new administration. With much considered to be at stake in the election, turnout was high at 74%. The SPD’s Dietmar Woidke, who has led Brandenburg for 11 years, had upped the ante in the run-up to Sunday’s poll by pledging to resign if the AfD beat his party, in what was viewed as a high-stakes gamble based on his own popularity as “father of the state”. The AfD, which has been classified as a rightwing extremist organisation in Brandenburg by domestic intelligence agencies, had also called for Scholz to resign under the same circumstances. Woidke even excluded Scholz from his election campaign – despite the fact he and his wife live in the state capital, Potsdam – fearing the negative impact of his presence. The SPD has ruled the state since reunification in 1990. All eyes had been on Brandenburg, which is population-wise one of Germany’s smallest states, after strong showings for the AfD earlier this month in Thuringia, where they came top with about 33%, and in Saxony, where they came a narrow second behind the conservative CDU with 27.5%. At the Brandenburg SPD’s election gathering at the Old Post, a restaurant near the state parliament in Potsdam, there were jubilant cries as the initial results came in, after weeks of a highly strung campaign. Taking to the floor shortly after 6pm local time, Woidke told supporters he was cautiously relieved, “considering the starting position we were in”. “We said we’d take on this battle and we said our goal at the outset was to ensure our land didn’t get a big brown stamp on it,” he said, in reference to the colour associated with the far-right. But he urged SPD members to “put on the euphoria brakes” until the final result became clear. At the party’s headquarters, the Willy Brandt house in Berlin, its general secretary, Kevin Kühnert, said it was too early for “feelings of relief … it’ll take several hours to get the full results, which is why I’m holding back”. Speaking in New York where he is attending UN meetings, Scholz reacted briefly to the election result, saying the mood at party headquarters, where he had spoken on the phone with party members, had been “good, naturally”. Some members referred to Woidke’s “tremendous comeback” and said it would set the tone ahead of next autumn’s federal election, at the same time as expressing their frustration that he had given the national party a wide berth. There are broader concerns that the Woidke win will be seen as a result of him having excluded – rather than praised – Scholz. At the AfD’s election gathering in Marquardt, north of Potsdam, Hans-Christoph Berndt, its main candidate, classified as rightwing extremist by domestic intelligence, claimed his party was the “real victor”. It appeared to have secured every third vote in the state “despite a campaign of agitation and slander” against the AfD, he said, calling the result a “consolidation of support”. On Telegram channels, supporters spoke of a “close race” and said the “firewall” established by the mainstream parties who had refused to coalesce with it would be hard to maintain as it continued to grow in strength. Several hundred anti-AfD protesters were gathered outside the venue, held back by riot police. The AfD had been running almost neck and neck with the SPD in the state, a belt of urban and rural communities that surrounds the capital, Berlin, and had led in the polls in the previous 12 months. The SPD had narrowed the gap in recent days. According to the exit polls, the conservative CDU secured just 12%, its worst result in the state’s history. The Greens, predicted to fall short of the requisite 5%, were facing a nailbiting wait to see if they would re-enter parliament, with exit polls showing the party on just 4.6%. The Free Democratic party, which like the Greens partners in the increasingly fractious three-way federal government, appeared to have received less than 1%. The leftwing Die Linke, on 3%, looked unlikely to enter parliament for the first time since its founding in 2007. There was jubilation, however, in the BSW camp. Many of its members broke away from Die Linke to form a new party in January. Its lead candidate, Robert Crumbach, who had been a member of the SPD for several decades before joining the BSW, thanked supporters and said he was “speechless”. “We had the aim to get double figures and that’s what we’ve achieved,” he said.