The assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah will undoubtedly be a game-changer, not just for Lebanon, but for the whole region as well. Will this be the end of the Iran-backed Hezbollah and its tight grip on Lebanon, which has lasted for decades? Time will tell. However, given the fact that Israel has also assassinated a large number of Hezbollah’s top-ranking generals and division leaders means that, even if the group were to live on, it would most likely be a caricature of its former self. This is especially true when we take recent events into consideration. The carefully planned attacks that took place before Nasrallah’s assassination — such as when pagers and walkie-talkies exploded in the hands of 3,000 Hezbollah commanders and soldiers this month and the series of targeted assassinations that took out the likes of Fouad Shukr — clearly indicate that Israel has superior intelligence capabilities or that Hezbollah has been infiltrated, or most probably both. This makes it unlikely that Hezbollah is capable of responding meaningfully or painfully as Israel will likely know about any attack in advance. (The fact that the most gruesome attack Hezbollah has successfully carried out this year destroyed only a chicken coop in northern Israel in July might support this argument.) The other alternative is that this will mean an all-out war of revenge backed by the party’s biggest supporter, the Iranian regime. However, the most recent events show no evidence that this will be the case. In New York last week, the Iranian president hinted that he was willing to talk with the US, while the leadership in Tehran is yet to avenge the killing of more senior officials that are closer to its heart, such as Maj. Gen. Mohammed Reza Zahedi, the Quds Force’s top commander in Syria and Lebanon, who was killed in the attack on Iran’s consulate in Damascus in April, and even the 2020 assassination of General Qassem Soleimani. Meanwhile, the statement of Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei that all Muslims should “stand by the people of Lebanon and the proud Hezbollah with whatever means they have and assist them in confronting the … wicked regime (of Israel)” could either be perceived as mere lip service or could actually trigger a retaliation. In a country already plagued by sectarianism, lawlessness, and plenty of guns, such a contrast between glee and grief is a recipe for disaster. Faisal J. Abbas | Editor-in-Chief What is tragic for both normal Palestinians and Lebanese, who have nothing to do with either Hamas or Hezbollah, is that such rhetoric only strengthens Israel, no matter what happens. If Iran, and its militias, fail to respond, it means Israel also wins psychologically yet again. If Hezbollah retaliates as a group, or if any of its followers worldwide acts individually, this would distract global public opinion from the mounting accusations of war crimes committed in Gaza and Lebanon, and allow the Israeli government to repeat, yet again, that it is only defending itself. In parallel, the biggest threat to Lebanon is not only the indiscriminate bombing of civilians and infrastructure by Israel, but the potential outbreak of a new civil war. Given that the country has a leadership vacuum, a weak army, and an outburst of contrasting emotions — given the divisive nature of the late Hezbollah leader — another civil war is not an unlikely scenario. We need to remember that to his avid followers, the late Nasrallah was considered a hero and even a saint. To his opponents, he was a traitor who served the interests of Iran, not Lebanon. In a country already plagued by sectarianism, lawlessness, and plenty of guns, such a contrast between glee and grief is a recipe for disaster. Indeed, Nasrallah was both the resistance leader and liberator of the south on one hand; and an enemy of the state on another. Many in Lebanon, and beyond, will never forgive him for turning the nation into a failed state, for being the architect of the 2005 assassination of reformist former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, and for taking over Beirut by force in 2008. Meanwhile, many Arab nations still have limited relations with Lebanon because Nasrallah oversaw the export of drugs, weapons, fighters, and radical ideology to them. This is why, apart from Israel, Lebanon needs to be protected from itself as well at this stage. It desperately needs unity and a patriotic, strong and wise government now more than ever. Its sectarian leaders must act immediately to rein in their followers, the international community needs to impose a ceasefire as soon as possible, and foreign humanitarian aid and assistance to the wounded and displaced needs to start pouring in to prevent the situation from deteriorating any further. As for Israel, it needs also to remember that only a two-state solution will guarantee its safety. The more innocent men, women and children it kills in Gaza and Lebanon, the more it is contributing to Hamas and Hezbollah 2.0. Faisal J. Abbas is the Editor-in-Chief of Arab News. X: @FaisalJAbbas