As soon as the war on Lebanon broke out, I received a call from a family friend and seasoned former diplomat. The first question he asked me was about the civil peace in Lebanon. My answer to him was: “Forget what you see on TV about solidarity, the internal situation is very tense.” The assault on Lebanon will drive people to leave, but tensions or clashes among the different factions will definitely make them leave in much larger numbers. This is really bad news for Lebanon, but also for Europe. Last month’s pager attack was a game-changer for Israel. After the successful attack, Israel became emboldened. It did not leverage its success to renegotiate UN Security Council Resolution 1701 with the Lebanese. It raised the bar. Israel is now going for the kill. It is going after Hezbollah members wherever they are. This is very dangerous. Whether deliberately or not, Israel is instigating a civil war in Lebanon. An observer of Israel and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s behavior could guess that it was intentional. Israel would want the Lebanese to clash with Hezbollah’s social community. It not only wants to weaken the group and degrade its capabilities, it also wants to strangle its social incubator. Also, when the Lebanese are busy fighting each other and Hezbollah is busy fending off other factions internally, Israel can have a free hand in the country. Israel is no longer only attacking the leadership of Hezbollah. It is going after low-ranking officers wherever they are. Wherever they take refuge, Israel will bomb them. This is why, for example, Baadaran, a Druze village in Shouf, was attacked late last month. A Druze family was sheltering a Shiite family. Both families were killed. This is pushing the Lebanese to refrain from sheltering or offering help to Shiites. Therefore, the pressure on the Shiite community is doubled. One million people are fleeing their homes in the south, but at the same time Israel is creating a hostile environment in the rest of the country. Israel not only wants to weaken Hezbollah and degrade its capabilities, it also wants to strangle its social incubator Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib This hostile environment adds to the prior discontent with Hezbollah, which has been increasing over the last few years. In 2019, the group suppressed protests asking for the departure of the political class. In August 2020, the group was accused of storing a large amount of ammonium nitrate in the port of Beirut that led to the tragic explosion. The group also stood adamantly against the investigation into the blast that was led by judge Tarek Bitar. This widened the wedge between the Lebanese and Hezbollah. Since 2022, the country has been without a president. The Lebanese have blamed Hezbollah for blocking any election that does not bring their preferred candidate to the presidency. Oct. 7 added to the discontent. Despite the high salience of the Palestine issue and the fact that the majority of the Lebanese people sympathize with Palestinians, most Lebanese did not want to be involved in the war. Now, the Israeli bombing is adding another layer of discontent with the group To add to this, Israel is conducting a systematic destruction of the south. The line from Khiam to Naqoura is totally destroyed, similar to what happened in northern Gaza. This is quite dangerous. Israel is making these areas uninhabitable. Even if there were to be a ceasefire, the residents of these areas are now literally homeless. This complex situation is very bad news for Europe. If there is no safe area in Lebanon, if more and more people flee the south and find difficulty getting shelter, then their next stop will be Europe. Syria is now closed for Lebanese refugees. This country, devastated by its own civil war, has no infrastructure to take them. Hence, the Lebanese — along with 1.5 million Syrian refugees — have no place to go but Europe. If more and more people flee the south and find difficulty getting shelter, then their next stop will be Europe Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib The problem is that Europe is busy with Vladimir Putin and Ukraine. Of course, its leaders know that the so-called Vegas rule does not apply to the Middle East and what happens on the east coast of the Mediterranean does not stay there — it will have a spillover effect to the west. However, Europe’s main preoccupation is currently preventing Russia from attacking another European country, particularly a NATO member, which would trigger Article 5 of the NATO Treaty on joint defense and would lead to a war between the West and Russia. Nevertheless, the EU should understand that what is happening in Lebanon can be just as damaging as a war with Russia. Populism and the far right are on the rise across Europe. A new wave of refugees could break the EU. The project that led to prosperity and stability in Europe after the Second World War is today more at risk than ever. So, Europe should be more proactive and not delegate its fate to the US, which itself is busy with the presidential election. So far, Europe has tried to contain the situation by providing aid. But it needs to understand that Lebanon is very different to Gaza. The confessional structure of Lebanon and the risk of civil war does not exist in the case of Gaza. Also, despite the Israeli bombing, there was no wave of migration from Gaza to Europe. This is different in the Lebanese case. The ability of the Lebanese and the Syrian refugees in Lebanon to cross the Mediterranean is a major risk for Europe. It should pressure Israel. Europe is a key trade partner for Israel. It could take punitive action against the Netanyahu government. Europe should understand that this pressure would not be a favor to help Lebanon, but a necessity to preserve its own security. Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib is a specialist in US-Arab relations with a focus on lobbying. She is co-founder of the Research Center for Cooperation and Peace Building, a Lebanese nongovernmental organization focused on Track II.