A preelection campaign video released by Donald Trump’s team showed the former president at a Lebanese restaurant in Michigan. One person asked him about peace in the Middle East. Trump responded that peace would not be possible without a change of leadership in America. He added: “You have people in the Middle East who aren’t doing their job. You have people in the US who aren’t doing their job.” One of the Trump campaign’s commitments, as highlighted to the Arab American community in Michigan, was to end the war in Gaza. He made a firm commitment, while his defeated Democratic rival Kamala Harris only promised to do her best. However, bringing peace to the Middle East will have to involve pressuring Israel, so will Trump do that? The only president who has previously dared to confront the Israelis was George H.W. Bush. He confronted them on the issue of settlements and it did not go well for him. Bush was challenged by Congress, which is well funded by the pro-Israel lobby. Bush had a famous quote: “There are 1,000 lobbyists up on the Hill today lobbying Congress for loan guarantees for Israel and I’m one lonely little guy down here asking Congress to delay its consideration of loan guarantees for 120 days.” The “lonely little guy” lost the 1992 election despite the success of the Gulf War. This defeat was a lesson for every president that came after him. Will Trump be different? It is hard to tell. However, Trump always talks about being the man who keeps his word. His slogan in his 2020 campaign was “promises made, promises kept.” He will begin his second and final term in January. He is also not committed to the Republican Party. He is an outsider. On the other hand, the Republican Party is committed to him being a Republican president. He has the Senate behind him and may well have the House of Representatives too. Hence, he has a window if he wants to take drastic action. Trump was perhaps the most pro-Israel president in US history during his first term. He gave Israel everything it wanted. He recognized Jerusalem as its capital and moved the US Embassy there. While a resolution confirming this move was passed by Congress in 1995 with a five-year grace period, the move was repeatedly delayed by Presidents Bill Clinton, George W. Bush and Barack Obama. Trump, however, did not care about upsetting anyone and the US Embassy moved to Jerusalem in 2018. The only president who has previously dared to confront the Israelis was George H.W. Bush. He confronted them on the issue of settlements. Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib He also recognized the occupied Golan Heights as Israeli territory, even though, according to international law, it belongs to Syria. He turned a blind eye to the expansion of settlements. His secretary of state even refused to call the settlements illegal. Having said this, Trump is not ideological. Unlike Biden, who is a committed Zionist, Trump is committed to his own interests. So, his previous pro-Israel course will not necessarily be repeated. Jared Kushner was the favorite son-in-law last time. Now, we hear about a new favorite — Michael Boulos, the husband of Trump’s other daughter, Tiffany. His father, Massad Boulos, helped Trump win Arab votes in Michigan during the recent campaign. According to an interview given to Israeli TV by Walid Phares, who is in the Trump court, he could not have won Michigan without Massad. The interviewer then asked Phares if Boulos might make Trump steer in a different direction. However, it might not be the new son-in-law that does so, but the realities on the ground. Trump is a transactional person. In his first term, he wanted an achievement. The Palestinian issue seemed very complex. He thought he would bypass it and go directly to Arab-Israeli normalization by giving countries in the region the perks they needed to make such a concession. The US recognized Moroccan sovereignty over Western Sahara, for example. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s project is clear: it is one of ethnic cleansing. He is acting as if he already has carte blanche from Trump. On the same day Trump was elected, he fired his defense secretary and replaced him with an even more radical figure, Israel Katz. Katz has already suggested the “temporary evacuation” of Palestinians in the West Bank. The Knesset last week issued a law allowing Israel to deport anyone, including citizens, with any connection to terrorism. All this is a prelude to ethnic cleansing. Can there be peace when there is another wave of ethnic cleansing? Trump may have a terrible track record when it comes to Palestine. He even used the word “Palestinian” as a slur during his debate with Biden. And he also said that Israel is “so tiny” during one speech and asked “is there any way of getting any more?” Yet there is nothing preventing him from changing course if he really is committed to peace. After all, this will be his second term, the term in which he will create his legacy. He has ties to Israel. However, Arab Gulf states also managed to build good relations with him. Will he now listen to them and work with them on building a sustainable peace? If this is the plan, he has to pressure Israel. Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib is a specialist in US-Arab relations with a focus on lobbying. She is co-founder of the Research Center for Cooperation and Peace Building, a Lebanese nongovernmental organization focused on Track II.