The main challenges facing NATO ahead of London gathering

  • 11/28/2019
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Next week, the leaders of NATO’s 29 members will gather in London to mark the 70th anniversary of the alliance’s founding. The gathering will be important for two reasons. Firstly, it offers an opportunity for the alliance to address many of the contentious issues facing NATO, such as the lack of defense spending, the threat Russia poses, and long-term questions such as admitting new members. But holding the meeting in London is also symbolic. On the eve of Brexit, and right before the upcoming general election in the UK, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson will want to demonstrate that Britain remains an important European power regardless of its membership status in the EU. The last time the leaders of NATO gathered was at the 2018 summit in Brussels. The meeting was not exactly smooth sailing. US President Donald Trump started the occasion by publicly criticizing Germany over its decision to build a controversial natural gas pipeline with Russia, and he ended the summit by going off-piste during a meeting that was supposed to be about Black Sea security but instead turned into Trump criticizing European countries for not spending enough on defense. However, even with all the high drama, experts believe that the outcome of last year’s summit was one of the best in many years. This London gathering will be different from last year. It is technically not a summit, but instead is being billed as a “Leaders Meeting.” This means that there will not be a summit declaration or communique at the end of the meeting, which requires all members of the alliance agreeing to a text. Without the pressure of finding political consensus between 29 countries for a joint text, the leaders of NATO can be more candid and open about the challenges the alliance faces in their private meetings. There are three main issues that should be on the top of the agenda at the upcoming meeting: Improving NATO’s deterrence against Russian aggression, convincing European countries to spend more on defense and the long-term question about keeping the door open for new members to join the alliance. The main focus of the meeting in London has to be Russia. From the Arctic to the Levant, Russia remains an aggressive and capable threat to NATO and the interests of its members. Russia continues to occupy parts of Georgia and Ukraine. Moscow is the primary enabler for Syrian President Basher Assad’s killing machine in Syria. It is a fact that Russia meddles in US elections and that of its allies across Europe. While the likelihood of a conventional Russian attack against a NATO member state remains low, it cannot be entirely discounted. In the interim, Russia is likely to use a host of tools in unison to pressure the alliance, expose cracks between member states and undermine NATO deterrence measures. While many NATO members in Eastern Europe understand the nature of Russia’s threat, many other European countries, especially France, see Russia differently. In the eyes of Trump, the most important issue he will address at the meeting will be the lack of European defense spending. Reaching the 2 percent of GDP spending benchmark requires a political, economic and societal will to invest in defense and so far it does not seem that most in Europe are truly committed to meeting their NATO obligations. While some members have increased defense spending, many nations in the alliance continue to lag behind. From 2017 to 2018, US allies in NATO spent, in real terms, an additional 4 percent on defense. Excluding Washington, these increases resulted in an additional $41 billion in defense investment from 2016 to 2018. From the Arctic to the Levant, Russia remains an aggressive and capable threat to NATO and the interests of its members. Luke Coffey Last year, seven NATO member states — Estonia, Greece, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, the US and the UK — met the spending target. As a collective security alliance, NATO is only as strong as its individual member states. Only a handful of NATO members can say that they are living up to their spending commitment and this is unacceptable. Finally, one of the biggest issues that the alliance needs to tackle is the question of adding new members in the future. NATO’s open-door policy for qualified countries has contributed greatly to transatlantic security since the first round of enlargement in 1952, helping to ensure its central place as the prime guarantor of security in Europe. The 1949 North Atlantic Treaty’s Article 10 states that any European state that is “in a position to further the principles of this Treaty and to contribute to the security of the North Atlantic area” can be invited to join the alliance. Montenegro most recently joined the Alliance in May 2017. Macedonia will be the next to join. This leaves two official candidate countries left to join NATO at a future date: Bosnia and Herzegovina and Georgia. Although not an official candidate, Ukraine was promised eventual membership in 2008. The alliance should ensure that NATO’s open-door policy is explicitly clear. Russia should never be seen as having a veto over a potential country’s membership in NATO, including Ukraine. Just because a country was once occupied by the Soviet Union or under the domination of the Russian Empire does not mean it is blocked from joining the alliance in perpetuity. Since its creation in 1949, NATO has done more to promote democracy, peace, economic prosperity and security in Europe than any other multilateral organization, including the EU. It is essential that NATO remains focused on the Russian threat, tackles its defense spending problem and keeps its door open for new members. US leadership is crucial and Trump should use the upcoming meeting in London to advance a pro-NATO agenda. • Luke Coffey is director of the Douglas and Sarah Allison Center for Foreign Policy at the Heritage Foundation. Twitter: @LukeDCoffey. Disclaimer: Views expressed by writers in this section are their own and do not necessarily reflect Arab News" point-of-view

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