The Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage), an expert led government panel, is meeting this week to assess the effect of the lockdown and review whether the conditions are right to relax restrictions. The panel’s recommendations will inform ministers, who will have the difficult task of deciding what to do next – and then explaining their decision to the public. Here are some of the key metrics that Sage is likely to consider, why they matter and how they may contribute to the decision-making process. To recap: the UK-wide lockdown came into effect just over three weeks ago on 23 March. The restrictions on movement dramatically changed life overnight for millions of people in a bid to curb the spread of Covid-19. At the time there were 967 new cases and the reported daily death toll was 87. The daily death toll on Tuesday was 778. Number of new cases per day This is a key factor in determining whether the lockdown is working. The number of positive cases has actually increased since it was put in place, however more people are being tested. Unfettered movement, particularly in densely populated areas where there is infection among the population, will lead to a rise in cases and deaths. Number of hospital admissions More than 20,000 people are currently in hospital with Covid-19 symptoms. The largest number of admissions is in London, with 4,433 patients, followed by the Midlands, with 3,092 admissions. The number of intensive care beds has increased with the addition of Nightingale hospitals in London and Birmingham and new capacity being added elsewhere in the UK. Admissions and ICU bed capacity will also be central in making any assessments on the possibility of easing restrictions on movement, as limited access to critical care beds will have a knock-on effect on how may people die from the virus. Number of deaths per day In the UK, the daily death toll has risen from 87 when lockdown began to 778 on Tuesday. However due to delays in reporting, it is impossible to accurately assess the number of deaths, and those in care homes and the community are not included in the government’s daily count. We are likely to be experiencing more deaths than reported and we will not know when we have reached and passed the peak for a number of days. Other issues likely to be taken into account include the impact of the restrictions on the economy, as the Office for Budget Responsibility predicts the lockdown could lead to the loss of 2 million jobs and shrink gross domestic product by 35%; the knock-on effect on people’s wellbeing including additional deaths, the effect on people’s mental health and increased reports of domestic abuse. • This article was amended on 15 April 2020. An earlier version said more than 20,000 people with Covid-19 symptoms had been admitted to hospital “to date”; this has been changed to make clear that this was the number in hospital at the time of publication.