The awards given by the British Academy of Film and Television Awards (Baftas) for excellence in TV are a fixture in the cultural calendar, awarded in some form for the past 65 years. But the presentation on Friday will be unusual. Although this is an annual ceremony, it is 16 months since the last one, due to the disruption of life by the coronavirus. The pandemic also means that all of the nominees and winners who attend the ceremony, hosted remotely by Richard Ayoade, will be on video link. Yet, as the eligibility period was 1 Jan 2019 to 21 Dec 2019, Covid-19, which dominates our existence at the moment, was not directly reflected in any contending content. And the other most generally influential public event – the killing of George Floyd – occurred after the votes were cast, so jurors will not have been affected by the Black Lives Matter protests, although they will have been conscious of the protests over lack of diversity in this year’s Bafta film awards in January. In trying to second-guess panels, it is also worth remembering that each category has a single jury, which chooses its shortlist and winner on the same day. This precludes any attempt by panels to finesse their decisions against results elsewhere. With those caveats, this is what I think should – and may – win the 2020 statuettes. Miniseries A Confession Jeff Pope, Paul Andrew Williams, Tom Dunbar, Johnny Capps; ITV Studios, Urban Myth Films/ITV Chernobyl Production Team: Sister, The Mighty Mint, Word Games; HBO/Sky Atlantic The Victim Rob Williams, Niall MacCormick, Sarah Brown, Jenny Frayn; STV Productions/BBC One The Virtues Shane Meadows, Jack Thorne, Mark Herbert, Nickie Sault; Warp Films, Big Arty Productions/Channel 4 If Chernobyl – the lavish, enthralling and meticulous reconstruction of Russian incompetence and lying over the 1986 nuclear meltdown – does not win this one, then we can only conclude that the Putin government has hacked the Bafta ballots. In a fair world, though, there would be silver statuette for Jeff Pope’s tremendous A Confession, a rare example of a miscarriage of justice in which a police officer was the victim, and a silver for Shane Meadows’ traumatic domestic drama, The Virtues. Female performance in a comedy programme Gbemisola Ikumelo Famalam; BBC Studios/BBC Three Phoebe Waller-Bridge Fleabag; Two Brothers Pictures/BBC Three Sarah Kendall Frayed; Merman Television Ltd, Guesswork Television/Sky One Sian Clifford Fleabag; Two Brothers Pictures/BBC Three The Intelligence and Security committee of the House of Commons should also urgently convene to examine possible anti-democratic malfeasance if Waller-Bridge doesn’t go home with this one, after not only acting but writing the complex comic-erotic-theological arc of the second series of Fleabag. Male performance in a comedy programme Guz Khan Man Like Mobeen; Tiger Aspect Productions, Cave Bear Productions/BBC Three Jamie Demetriou Stath Lets Flats; Roughcut TV/Channel 4 Ncuti Gatwa Sex Education; Eleven Film/Netflix Youssef Kerkour Home; Jantaculum, Channel X/Channel 4 An unusually diverse shortlist, although it is a shame there was no room for Andrew Scott’s perfect work as Fleabag’s flawed but believing priest. A case could be made for any of this quartet. But Sex Education is the series with most heat around it, and Ncuti Gatwa plays one of the stand-out characters in it. Entertainment performance Frankie Boyle Frankie Boyle’s New World Order; Zeppotron/BBC Two Graham Norton The Graham Norton Show; So Television/BBC One Lee Mack Would I Lie to You; Zeppotron/BBC One Mo Gilligan The Lateish Show with Mo Gilligan; Expectation, Momo G/Channel 4 As Graham Norton has six previous wins and two nominations in this category, it must feel for his rivals like sharing an Oscars shortlist with Meryl Streep. Mack won last year, so the jury may favour a change candidate. Were the provocative contrarian Boyle to triumph with what seems to be his first nomination for any prize ever, all leave would be cancelled at Conservative newspapers. A victory for the emerging 32-year-old Gilligan would help to show that Bafta is an institution for all genres and generations. Comedy entertainment programme The Graham Norton Show Graham Norton, Graham Stuart, Jon Magnusson, Steve Smith; So Television/BBC One The Last Leg Ben Knappett, Andrew Beint, Lisa Kirk, Cimran Shah; Open Mike Productions/Channel 4 The Ranganation Production team: Zeppotron/BBC Two Taskmaster Alex Horne, Andy Devonshire, Andy Cartwright, James Taylor; Avalon Television/Dave The above category’s sister award is for what happens behind the scenes: ideas, guest bookings, production, direction. The consistency of guest quality, preparation and rapport with the studio audience on Norton’s show remains remarkable, so its biggest obstacle would be the obviousness of the honour. The Last Leg, consistently innovative for eight years, has been under-rewarded by Bafta so far and would be a deserved and popular victor. Current affairs Growing Up Poor: Britain’s Breadline Kids (Dispatches) Production team: True Vision East/Channel 4 The Hunt for Jihadi John Anthony Wonke, Richard Kerbaj, Paul Monaghan, Jane Root; Nutopia, Livedrop Media, HBO/Channel 4 Is Labour Anti-Semitic (Panorama) Leo Telling, John Ware, Neil Grant, Rachel Jupp; BBC/BBC One Undercover: Inside China’s Digital Gulag (Exposure) Robin Barnwell, David Henshaw, Guy Creasey, Gesbeen Mohammad; Hardcash Productions/ITV While jurors are ordered to ignore external factors – making the decision based only on the viewing material given – only the least curious could have been unaware of the huge controversy caused by the Panorama report on attitudes to Judaism on the left. However, the decision was made before Labour settled defamation cases relating to the programme, and while voters will have been asked to ignore their own political views, those may also have affected the result. That context may have caused problems for a documentary that otherwise perfectly met a classic definition of journalism: saying what powerful people don’t want said. If the Panorama proved too hot, the China investigation from ITV (a network that has recently struggled for Bafta recognition) would be a strong alternative. News coverage Hong Kong Protests Production team: Sky News/Sky News ITV News At Ten: Election Results Production team: ITV News, ITN/ITV Prince Andrew & the Epstein Scandal (Newsnight) Production team: BBC News/BBC Two Victoria Derbyshire: Men Who Lost Loved Ones to Knife Crime Production team: BBC News/BBC Two This is often a rather queasy category, with jurors required to adjudicate the technical merits of rival coverage of catastrophes or massacres. But, as with the Labour antisemitism Panorama in Current Affairs, if reporting means exploring what many want to remain hidden, there can only be one winner. HRH Prince Andrew was hugely stupid to give a post-Weinstein interview, but Emily Maitlis and Newsnight were intelligent in getting and executing it. Leading actor Callum Turner The Capture; Heyday Television, NBC Universal/BBC One Jared Harris Chernobyl: Sister; The Mighty Mint, Word Games, HBO/Sky Atlantic Stephen Graham The Virtues; Warp Films, Big Arty Productions/Channel 4 Takehiro Hira Giri/Haji; Sister/BBC Two/Netflix Unless something very peculiar happened in the jury rooms, both main acting categories seem shoo-ins. Overlooking Jared Harris for his performance as the leader of efforts to prevent Russian nuclear meltdown would risk leaving the impression that Chernobyl was brilliant except for the lead acting. Leading actress Glenda Jackson Elizabeth is Missing; STV Productions/BBC One Jodie Comer Killing Eve; Sid Gentle Films/BBC One Samantha Morton I Am Kirsty – Me and You; Productions/Channel 4 Suranne Jones Gentleman Jack; Lookout Point, HBO/BBC One Even if Dame Glenda Jackson were not 84, on course to win her first TV Bafta (she was nominated for Elizabeth R back in 1972), and at risk of being unable to do much more work because of post-Covid insurance problems for older actors, her performance as a woman with dementia searching for a lost friend in Elizabeth is Missing would still be one of the most subtle and affecting pieces of TV acting ever achieved. Supporting actor Joe Absolom A Confession; ITV Studios, Urban Myth Films/ITV Josh O’Connor The Crown; Left Bank Pictures, Sony Pictures Television/Netflix Stellan Skarsgård Chernobyl; Sister, The Mighty Mint, Word Games, HBO/Sky Atlantic Will Sharpe Giri/Haji; Sister/BBC Two/ Netflix Biographical acting wins so many awards because the quality of the performance can be easily judged by its resemblance to the famous face. That could help O’Connor’s impression of the young Prince Charles. (Although, for me, it is far out-ranked by Harry Enfield’s older Wales in Channel 4’s The Windsors.) But Skarsgård had the harder task of playing a Soviet official who is real but unknown to us and should ride the justified wave of love for Chernobyl to victory. Supporting actress Helen Behan The Virtues; Warp Films, Big Arty Productions/Channel 4 Helena Bonham Carter The Crown; Left Bank Pictures Sony Pictures/Netflix Jasmine Jobson Top Boy; Cowboy Films, Easter Partisan Films, DreamCrew, SpringHill Entertainment/Netflix Naomi Ackie The End of the F***ing World; Clerkenwell Films, Dominic Buchanan Productions/Channel 4/Netflix Another Tussaud’s performance from The Crown – Princess Margaret, in the hands of the much-liked Bonham Carter – is up against a trio of newer talents as fictional characters. A nod to Ackie or Jobson – the latter my narrow favourite – would show Bafta recognising excellence wherever it occurs. Drama series The Crown Peter Morgan, Suzanne Mackie, Benjamin Caron, Michael Casey; Left Bank Pictures, Sony Pictures Television/Netflix The End of The F***ing World Production team: Clerkenwell Films, Dominic Buchanan Productions/Channel 4/Netflix Gentleman Jack Sally Wainwright, Faith Penhale, Laura Lankester, Phil Collinson; Lookout Point, HBO/BBC One Giri/Haji Production team: Sister/BBC Two/ Netflix Having failed to win this section (partly due to anti-Netflix sentiment in British TV) for its far superior first two series, it would be a travesty if The Crown prevailed for a season three that played ever looser with historical truth, yet still managed to be overshadowed by the real Royal dramas of Andrew, Harry and Meghan. The Anglo-Japanese drama Giri/Haji is this year’s surprise prize-hunter (with six nominations), but the trophy should go to Gentleman Jack, a bold piece of untold sexual-social history, that had all the wit, daring and mental complexity that typifies the writing of its creator, Sally Wainwright. Single drama Brexit: The Uncivil War Production team: House Productions, Baffin Media/Channel 4 Elizabeth Is Missing Andrea Gibb, Aisling Walsh, Sarah Brown, Chrissy Skinns; STV Productions/BBC One The Left Behind Alan Harris, Joseph Bullman, Aysha Rafaele, Tracie Simpson; BBC Studios/BBC Three Responsible Child Production team: Kudos, 72 Films/BBC Two The acting panel excluded Benedict Cumberbatch for his fairly sympathetic portrayal of Dominic Cummings (at the time relatively unknown) in James Graham’s Brexit docudrama, and, although the film itself gets a nod here, it seems hard to imagine it achieving a winning margin during voting that took place in the early stages of the pandemic. Elizabeth Is Missing, with its all-female senior creative team, feels the right choice. Soap & continuing drama Casualty Production team: BBC Studios/BBC One Coronation Street Production team: ITV Studios/ITV Emmerdale Production team: ITV Studios/ITV Holby City Production team: BBC Studios/BBC One With barely half a dozen plausible contenders, this is the most rotational trophy. Voting at a time when Britons were clapping the NHS every Thursday, jurors may have wished to extend their own ovation by going for a medical soap. Casualty won as recently as 2018, while Holby City has not been honoured since 2008, and marked its 20th anniversary during the eligibility period for these awards, which would build momentum. But Coronation Street, which has not won since 2015, had a key medical storyline – Sinead Osbourne’s death from cervical cancer – which used formal invention (the point of view of someone losing consciousness) offering a chance to showcase both the soap and the NHS. Entertainment programme The Greatest Dancer Amelia Brown, Phil Harris, Nigel Hall, Louise Hutchinson; Thames, Syco Entertainment/BBC One The Rap Game UK Tom O’Brien, Simon Andreae, Tom Whitrow, Susie Dark; Naked TV/BBC Three Strictly Come Dancing Production team: BBC Studios/BBC One The Voice UK Production team: ITV Studios, Talpa/ITV The shortlisting of two famous franchises (The Voice, Strictly Come Dancing) and the latest Simon Cowell flagship (The Greatest Dancer) suggests a panel that likes solidly traditional Saturday night formats. But let’s hope there were enough edgier voices round the table to give a chance to the most original contender, The Rap Game UK, which deserves more than to have been a token nod to youth. Its network BBC Three has a history of awards ceremony success disproportionate to its schedule presence and may have another shake-up winner here. Factual series Crime and Punishment Emily Lawson, Bruce Fletcher, Jemma Chisnall, Mark Raphael; 72 Films/Channel 4 Don’t F**k With Cats: Hunting An Internet Killer Mark Lewis, Felicity Morris, Michael Harte, Dimitri Doganis; Raw TV/Netflix Leaving Neverland Production team: Amos Pictures/Channel 4 Our Dementia Choir with Vicky McClure Production team: Curve Media/BBC One This category resembles the Premier League with the two best clubs banned from competing, after failure even to shortlist two of the strongest factual projects of last year: Norma Percy’s Inside Europe: Ten Years of Turmoil (BBC Two) and Claire Lewis and Michael Apted’s 63 Up (ITV). In their absence, the section may be influenced by the perceived increasing tendency for some Bafta voters to put message ahead of significance to the medium. If that happens, the heart-warming Our Dementia Choir can clear space on the mantlepiece; if not, Dan Reed’s chilling Michael Jackson exposé, Leaving Neverland, should be rewarded for its epic investigative strength. Features Joe Lycett’s Got Your Back Production team: Rumpus Media, My Options Were Limited/Channel 4 The Misadventures of Romesh Ranganathan Emily Hudd, Morgan Roberts, Christopher Cottam; Rumpus Media/BBC Two Mortimer & Whitehouse: Gone Fishing Bob Mortimer, Paul Whitehouse, Lisa Clark, Will Yapp; Owl Power/BBC Two Snackmasters Production team: Optomen/Channel 4 Whereas jurors know what they are rewarding with, say, best actor or best drama, the features panel needs to define the category before finding it. This is also a tough quartet in the sense of having no obvious frontrunner. There is a lot of industry affection for Bob Mortimer and Paul Whitehouse, but Channel 4 has a record of sweet ideas for light reality shows (Gogglebox, First Dates etc), and has found another in Snackmasters, where top chefs are challenged to recreate great British confectionary, convenience and fast foods. International Euphoria Sam Levinson, Ravi Nandan, Kevin Turen, Drake; The Reasonable Bunch, A24, Little Lamb, DreamCrew, Tedy Productions, HBO/Sky Atlantic Succession Production team: HBO Entertainment in association with Project Zeus, Hyperobject Industries and Gary Sanchez Productions/Sky Atlantic Unbelievable Susannah Grant, Sarah Timberman, Lisa Cholodenko; CBS Television Studios, Timberman-Beverly Productions, Katie Couric Media, Escapist Fare, Sage Lane Productions/Netflix When They See Us Ava DuVernay, Jonathan King, Jane Rosenthal, Berry Welsh; Participant Media, Tribeca Productions, Harpo Films, Array Filmworks/Netflix In a sign of where the TV drama power lies, Netflix and HBO have two classy products each in this foursome. The sub-Murdoch family drama Succession (which received 18 Emmy nominations this week) has become one of the benchmarks by which fictional writing, acting and production values are judged. However, it won this prize last year, which may leave the way clear for a run-off between Unbelievable and When They See Us, both exploring the complexities of the investigation of rape cases. As they take contrasting stances – the risk of prejudice towards complainants and suspects – they would, ideally, share the prize, but Academy rules exclude this. I would narrowly go for Unbelievable. Live event Blue Planet Live Production team: BBC Studios Natural History Unit, Open University, BBC Learning/BBC One Election 2019 Live: The Results Production team: ITV News, ITN/ITV Glastonbury 2019 Production team: BBC Studios/BBC Two Opwration Live Production team: The Garden Productions/Channel 5 This was the room that surely most struggled with the stern warning not to let extraneous issues influence judgement. The suspicion must be that Boris Johnson’s December 2019 landslide was achieved without the votes of too many Bafta members. Can they, though, put that aside to acknowledge the slickness, energy and wit of ITN’s reporting, led by Tom Bradby, of the Get Brexit Done triumph? Aware by the time they voted that there would be no Glastonbury 2020, might festival-missing members nostalgically memorialise the last one? Or could British TV viewers’ instinctive love of natural history (even without David Attenborough) swing it for the latest planetary awe report? I think ITN’s political team has earned a majority. Reality & constructed factual Celebrity Gogglebox Tania Alexander, Leon Campbell, Stephen Lambert, Chris Hooker; Studio Lambert/Channel 4 Harry’s Heroes: The Full English Production team: Talkback/ITV Race Across the World Production team: Studio Lambert/BBC Two Rupaul’s Drag Race UK Production team: World of Wonder Productions/BBC Three This one is a tight race, with no outcome likely to trigger either huge cheers or bitter tears. Gogglebox is a splendid enterprise, but a famous-face spin-off feels too easy. If older voters shaded the debate, then Harry Redknapp’s football nostalgia show might win; if the young prevailed, then RuPaul’s state visit to Britain. Race Across the World, a real-life Wacky Races, although it divided opinion, seems to me the freshest concept here. Scripted comedy Catastrophe Sharon Horgan, Rob Delaney, Jim O’Hanlon, Toby Welch; Avalon Television, Birdbath, Merman/Channel 4 Derry Girls Lisa McGee, Liz Lewin, Caroline Leddy, Michael Lennox; Hat Trick Productions/Channel 4 Fleabag Production team: Two Brothers Pictures/BBC Three Stath Let Flats Jamie Demetriou, Tom Kingsley, Seb Barwell, Ash Atalla; Roughcut TV/Channel 4 In a very strong contest, there is a case for each series here, with no option for the panel to decide it’s another show’s turn; unusually, all four have been shortlisted without winning in the previous three years. In a further complication, both Catastrophe and Fleabag have let it be known that these were their final series. That makes another strong case for the forbidden tie but, if for no other reason than to recognise Scott’s performance, Fleabag feels the just result. Short form programme Anywhere But Westminster John Domokos, John Harris; The Guardian/The Guardian Brain In Gear Gbemisola Ikumelo, Fergal Costello, Inez Gordon; BBC Studios/BBC iPlayer Soon Gone: A Windrush Chronicle Roy Williams, Tinge Krishnan, Carol Harding; Douglas Road Productions, The Young Vic/BBC Four Toni_With_An_I (Born Digital: First Cuts) Marco Alessi, Ksenia Harwood, Mary Antony; Plimsoll Productions, BFI/BBC Four Full disclosure: John Harris has been a colleague of mine both in broadcasting and at the Guardian (which produced his entry), and remains one of the writers on politics I most admire. What is striking here is that two of the contenders are made by non-traditional broadcasters – a sign of post-digital disruption in TV – so, if the Guardian can’t have it, the Young Vic would be a decent second best. Single documentary The Abused Barbie MacLaurin, Napoleon Stratogiannakis, Malcolm Brinkworth, Benedict Adams; Brinkworth Productions/Channel 5 David Harewood: Psychosis and Me Emma Hindley, Wendie Ottewill, Olivia Isaacs, David Harewood; Films of Record, Open University/BBC Two The Family Secret Anna Hall, Sally Ogden, Luke Rothery, Brian Woods; True Vision Yorkshire/Channel 4 The Last Survivors Arthur Cary, Morgan Matthews, Katherine Anstey, Joby Gee; Minnow Films/BBC Two Another category (like news) that frequently requires the balancing of rival nightmares. The 2020 quartet encompasses child sexual abuse, domestic violence, mental illness, and Holocaust survival. A horrible choice, but David Harewood’s examination of his own psychotic breakdown has the strongest claim. Specialist factual 8 Days to the Moon and Back Production team: BBC Studios, PBS/BBC Two Seven Worlds, One Planet Production team: BBC Studios Natural History Unit, BBC America, Tencent Penguin Pictures, ZDF, France Télévisions, CCTV9/BBC One Thatcher: A Very British Revolution Production team: BBC Studios: The Documentary Unit/BBC Two Yorkskshire Ripper Files: A Very British Crime Story Liza Williams, Jasmine Macnabb, Nancy Bornat, Leanne Klein; Wall to Wall Media/BBC Four Here again, the electorate might have need to park personal views of Baroness Thatcher’s administrations to recognise the magisterial sweep of this documentation of them. Younger voters – remembering neither Thatcher nor the moon landings – will have been an intriguing influence on this outcome. The awesomeness of the Apollo 11 mission, viscerally recreated from archive, may just swing it. Sport 2019 Rugby World Cup Final: England v South Africa Phil Heslop, David Francis, Mark Demuth, Paul McNamara; ITV Sport/ITV ICC Cricket World Cup Final Production team: Sky Sports, Sunset+Vine, ICC TV/Sky Sports Cricket Fifa World Cup 2019 Semi-final: England v USA Frank Callaghan, Stu Hutchison, Pete Burton, Rebekah Kipps; Input Media/BBC One Wimbledom 2019 Men’s Final Production team: BBC Sport, Wimbledon Broadcast Services/BBC One In this category, it seems impossible for judges to separate their level of investment in the match from the objective quality of the coverage. But Sky Sports has revolutionised televised cricket, the England v New Zealand World Cup final had a cliffhanger ending any thriller would envy, and commentator Michael Atherton confirmed his status as the natural heir to Richie Benaud by insisting, quite early in the day, on explaining the intricate logistics of the tie-break “super over” at a time when it seemed improbable that it would ever be required. Virgin Media’s must see moment (voted for by the public) Coronation Street The death of Sinead Osbourne; ITV Studios/ITV Fleabag Confessional Scene; Two Brothers Pictures/BBC Three Game of Thrones Arya kills the Night King; Bighead, Littlehead, 360 Television, Startling Television, HBO/Sky Atlantic Gavin & Stacey Nessa Proposes to Smithy; Fulwell 73, Tidy Productions and Baby Cow Production for BBC One Line of Duty John Corbett’s death; World Productions/BBC One Love Island Michael recouples after Casa Amor; ITV Studios, Motion Content Group ITV2 Shamefully, this is the only chance for Jed Mercurio’s Line of Duty to be acknowledged, so it would be nice if the public made good the Academy’s omission. The sacrament of penitence almost leading to sex on the church floor in Fleabag was remarkable writing and acting, but could be too transgressive for some. Popular polls tend to respond to high emotion so Coronation Street and Gavin & Stacey have a chance, but Game of Thrones has the fanbase likely to be most adept at online voting.