With celebrity slaps, movie mix-ups and viral selfies dominating the Academy Awards in the past decade, you’d be forgiven for thinking that the ceremony produces more drama than the films it was set up to celebrate. However, this year’s best film nominations have the potential to make the 2023 Oscars different (unforeseen red-carpet-dramas notwithstanding). Tonight’s nominees contain their fair share of so-called “Oscar bait” (long, overly serious dramas by major film studios, aiming to appeal to Academy voters), as well as comedy, action, sci-fi and, well, Avatar 2. Sequels and remakes are on the up, while big studios are losing their former ironclad grip on the world’s most recognisable gong. Here the Guardian analyses historical data on Academy Award nominees and winners of the best picture award to find out which films might be on the brink of making Oscar history.