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PRAGUE, Feb 9 (Reuters) - Central European currencies eased
a touch on Tuesday, with the Czech crown off 11-month highs
after a rally fuelled by chances of interest rates hikes later
this year.
Stock markets in Prague and Budapest were off
around two-week highs as a risk rally on the back of global
recovery hopes and COVID-19 vaccine roll-outs paused.
The crown has gained 1.3% since Feb. 1. It was bid
0.05% lower at 25.717 to the euro at 1007 GMT.
Czech markets have priced in chances of a rate hike in
around half a year, according to forward rate agreements. Rates,
though, eased a touch for a second straight day after a jump
last week.
ING in a trade note on Monday recommended receiving a 1-year
interest rate swap (IRS).
"The recent hawkish frontloaded repricing of the (central
bank) CNB outlook seems too aggressive and, after the large
moves on Thursday and Friday… the outlook for the next three
months suggests lower front end CZK rates. We don"t expect the
CNB to turn more hawkish from here in coming months," it said.
The Czech National Bank at a policy meeting last Thursday
left the door open to tightening later in 2021 - in contrast to
others in central Europe - but said longer-than-expected
lockdowns in the pandemic were a risk.
Polish central bank Governor Adam Glapinski said last Friday
rates in central Europe"s biggest economy were most likely to
stay unchanged in coming months.
In December, the bank had intervened against zloty strength
and Glapinski had raised chances of a rate cut in the first
quarter, if necessary.
The zloty has firmed with some intervention
worries dissipating. It was down a touch at 4.477 per euro on
Tuesday, hanging near levels last seen in mid-December.
"The EUR / PLN exchange rate fluctuates around the lower
limit of the downward channel, ie the level of 4.473 and
although the zloty has arguments for strengthening, today it may
be difficult for it to break the above-mentioned barrier," Bank
Millennium said.
In Hungary, the forint retreated a fourth straight
day from a seven-week high hit last week.
Czech lender MONETA Money Bank gained half a
percent to 76 crowns, its highest since Jan. 25 when shares
jumped after billionaire Petr Kellner"s PPF group renewed an
attempt to gain majority control.
PPF launched a voluntary share offer on Monday at a price of
80 crowns.
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