TREASURIES-Investors drive down yields ahead of Powell remarks

  • 2/22/2021
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Investors drove U.S. Treasury yields down from milestone highs on Monday as they looked ahead to remarks U.S. Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell is set to give on Tuesday in Washington. The benchmark 10-year yield was unchanged at 1.3449% in midday trading. It had been as high as 1.394% overnight, the highest since February 2020, on expectations of faster U.S. growth and inflation, then fell back with equity markets. Powell is scheduled to speak Tuesday before the Senate Banking Committee, and investors will be watching to see if he offers any changes to the central bank"s dovish outlook of recent months as it looks to shepherd the economy through the COVID-19 pandemic. Bryn Mawr Trust Director of Fixed Income Jim Barnes said investors will watch to see if Powell gives a more optimistic assessment of U.S. economic growth and for signs it might be quicker to act to control inflation. Doing so could help bring down the TIPS break-even inflation rate. The 10-year U.S. TIPS break-even inflation rate was at 2.14% and has been above 2% since Jan 27. "If there"s anything that can break the streak of higher yields, it can be the Fed," Barnes said. U.S. stock indexes fell on Monday as the high Treasury yields and prospects of rising inflation triggered valuation concerns, hitting shares of high-flying growth companies. A closely watched part of the U.S. Treasury yield curve measuring the gap between yields on two- and 10-year Treasury notes, seen as an indicator of economic expectations, was at 124 basis points, about a basis point higher than Friday"s close and the highest since 2017. The two-year U.S. Treasury yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations, was up less than a basis point at 0.1109%. February 22 Monday 11:57AM New York / 1657 GMT Price Current Net Yield % Change (bps) Three-month bills 0.03 0.0304 -0.003 Six-month bills 0.045 0.0456 0.005 Two-year note 100-7/256 0.1109 0.002 Three-year note 99-184/256 0.2198 0.006 Five-year note 98-246/256 0.5889 0.008 Seven-year note 98-118/256 0.98 0.001 10-year note 97-244/256 1.3449 0.000 20-year bond 98-56/256 1.9835 0.005 30-year bond 94-16/256 2.1445 0.004 DOLLAR SWAP SPREADS Last (bps) Net Change (bps) U.S. 2-year dollar swap 9.50 0.25 spread U.S. 3-year dollar swap 11.00 0.50 spread U.S. 5-year dollar swap 12.75 -0.25 spread U.S. 10-year dollar swap 8.00 -0.50 spread U.S. 30-year dollar swap -23.00 -1.75 spread (Reporting by Ross Kerber in Boston; editing by Nick Zieminski and Mark Heinrich)

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