Breakingviews - CVC’s Toshiba bid puts a breakup on the table

  • 4/7/2021
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HONG KONG (Reuters Breakingviews) - The buyout barbarians are knocking on the gates of Tokyo. CVC has offered to buy Toshiba for north of $20 billion, a roughly 30% premium to its current market worth, Reuters reported on Wednesday. Managers, bloodied by governance battles with top shareholders, might welcome the chance to get out of the public eye. But they could do more for shareholders by breaking the company up. Taking private the company run by Nobuaki Kurumatani, a former CVC executive, would rank at least equal with Japan’s biggest buyout to date. Toshiba was involved there, too, selling a majority stake in its memory-chips unit, since renamed Kioxia, to a Bain-led consortium in 2017 at a $21 billion valuation. Kurumatani, who took the top job at Toshiba the following year, might want to consider hiving off more assets. Valuing the company’s main reporting segments is a rough business. Its energy division, which includes nuclear power, renewable energy and transmission systems, will generate 485 billion yen ($4.4 billion) in revenue in fiscal year 2021, per Refinitiv analyst forecasts. That could be worth around $3.5 billion, based on the average price-to-sales multiple of General Electric, Mitsubishi Heavy and Hitachi. The infrastructure systems business, a grab bag of robots, radar and railway equipment, could fetch $17 billion on a similar metric. Another $13 billion lies in Devices and Storage, a rival to HDD supplier Seagate, and its retail and printer unit. Building solutions, maker of escalators and lifts, would be worth $10 billion based on a blend of peers Otis Worldwide and Schindler Holding. Without including the 17% of sales generated by smaller units, and taking the midpoint valuation for infrastructure, the five total $43 billion. Include the 40% stake Toshiba still holds in Kioxia, and that could rise to as much as $55 billion. Conglomerates usually trade below the value of their parts. In Toshiba’s case, the discount is aggravated by a new law that makes it easier to protect assets from foreign control. CVC’s offer, though, may well inspire rival barbarians and others to start circling. At the very least, that could drive the price higher. But it also puts a breakup firmly on the table. BREAKINGVIEWS

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