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PRAGUE, July 26 (Reuters) - Central European currencies
started the week on a tepid note, with the forint at a
three-month low on Monday ahead of the National Bank of Hungary
meeting this week where traders expect the central bank to
extend its cycle of rate hikes.
The region"s currencies have been hit in recent weeks by a
firm U.S. dollar and poor risk sentiment as investors witness a
surge in COVID-19 cases worldwide, raising concerns over
economic recovery.
The forint and the Czech crown had found some support in
tightened cycles launched in Hungary and Czech Republic last
month, but were unable to escape the weak global sentiment.
Markets already expected a 15 basis-point rise from
Hungarian policymakers on Tuesday, CIB Bank analysts said.
"We still think that only a drastic tightening could
significantly strengthen the forint, without that the EUR/HUF
rate can continue to stay in the 345-360 range," CIB said.
The forint traded at 361.65 to the euro on Monday,
down 0.35%, as of 0839 GMT.
The crown weakened 0.2% to 25.705 per euro, as
traders appeared to have showed scant reaction last week to
Czech central banker Vojtech Benda, who told Reuters that the
bank may raise interest rates faster this year than projected in
its spring forecast.
Benda, who was the lone vote for a stronger 50 basis-point
rise in June, said he could imagine proposing a larger hike
again when the bank meets next month.
The bank has moved with tightening to rein in elevated
inflation coming as the economic recovery from the pandemic gets
in full swing. However, factories are bothered by global parts
bottlenecks.
Data on Monday showed Czech business confidence fell this
month for the first time since March as material shortages and
rising prices hit sentiment.
"The crown will this week be again influenced mainly by
activity, or rather the mood, from abroad," CSOB said.
Analysts said markets were likely to be volatile this week,
with eyes also on the U.S. Federal Reserve and its debate over
when to begin tapering asset purchases.
Elsewhere, the Polish zloty weakened 0.2% and
Romania"s leu just inched up, bucking the trend in the
region.
Central European stock indexes, which have shown
double-digit gains so far in 2021, eased in risk-off trading
that started with Asian shares as tightening regulations hit
Chinese equities.
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