CEE MARKETS-Forint leads CEE currencies lower ahead of U.S. data, Powell speech

  • 8/27/2021
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BUCHAREST, Aug 27 (Reuters) - The Hungarian forint led central European currencies lower against the euro on Friday, as markets were cautious ahead of U.S. inflation data and potential clues from the U.S. Federal Reserve on when stimulus might be pulled back. Hungary"s central bank delivered its third consecutive interest rate hike earlier this week and began cutting back its government bond sales, a step back from accommodative policies brought on by the pandemic. By 0940 GMT, the forint was down 0.3% against the euro at 350.1000, hovering near a one-week low. The currency was still up 3.5% this year, outperforming regional peers. Some analysts said the bank (NBH) could slow the pace of its rate hikes as the strong forint would help curb inflation. "With inflation still some 70 basis points above the NBH"s forecast and growth going strong, we maintain our call for a 30 basis points hike in September," Morgan Stanley said in a note. "Still, we think that the September inflation report will show that risks to the inflation outlook have started to balance out and we expect the central bank to slow the pace of tightening." Traders are waiting on Fed Chair Jerome Powell"s speech at the Jackson Hole symposium due at 1400 GMT where some analysts expect he may give signs of when the central bank might start slowing its bond purchases. Elsewhere in the region, Polish zloty was down 0.2% and the Czech crown 0.1% against the euro. Polish central bankers rejected a motion to raise its main interest rate by 15 basis points to 0.25% at its July sitting, minutes showed on Thursday. "While the probability of a 15 basis points rate hike in November has increased slightly ... it is still a low probability scenario," Commerzbank said in a note. "Hence, the Polish zloty is likely to underperform the Hungarian and forint and the Czech koruna in coming months." The Romanian leu was flat on the day. Romania must avoid the risk of tightening monetary policy too soon so as to not put the brakes on economic recovery, a deputy central bank governor said. CEE SNAPSHO AT MARKETS T 1148 CET CURRENC IES Latest Previou Daily Change s bid close change in 2021 Czech Hungary 0 0 Polish Romanian Croatian Serbian 0 0 Note: calculated from 1800 daily CET change Latest Previou Daily Change s close change in 2021 Prague 1280.99 1280.92 +0.01% +24.71 00 % Budapest 50863.0 50640.5 +0.44% +20.79 9 1 % Warsaw 2301.01 2309.44 -0.37% +15.98 % Buchares 12413.4 12317.0 +0.78% +26.60 t 0 6 % Ljubljan <.SBITOP 1195.34 1196.16 -0.07% +32.69 a > % Zagreb 1966.68 1963.00 +0.19% +13.07 % Belgrade <.BELEX1 796.15 799.91 -0.47% +6.35% 5> Sofia 569.10 571.59 -0.44% +27.16 % Yield Yield Spread Daily (bid) change vs Bund change in Czech spread Republic 2-year s 5-year s s Poland 2-year s 5-year s s FORWARD 3x6 6x9 9x12 3M interba nk Czech 1.63 2.08 2.22 0.97 Rep Hungary 2.14 2.28 2.34 1.61 Poland 0.41 0.64 0.87 0.21 Note: are for ask FRA prices quotes ********************************************* ***************** (Reporting by Luiza Ilie in Bucharest and Anita Komuves in Budapest; Editing by Amy Caren Daniel) Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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