EMERGING MARKETS-Turkish lira plumbs new lows after latest central bank overhaul

  • 10/14/2021
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* EM stocks rise, Russia at record high * Chinese property market woes continue * EM-focussed Ashmore Group says AUM down in Q3 Oct 14 (Reuters) - Turkey’s lira sank to a record on Thursday following an overhaul of the central bank monetary policy committee by President Tayyip Erdogan, while broader emerging market currencies rose as the dollar pulled back from a recent rally. The lira fell as much as 1.2% to 9.1846 to the dollar after Erdogan dismissed three central bank monetary policy committee members and appointed two new members in their place. Erdogan has fired three central bank governors in the last 2-1/2 years over policy disagreements, and holds the unorthodox view that high interest rates cause inflation. The central bank also cut rates recently, despite inflation rising to near 20%. The combination of policy uncertainty, rising inflation and dwindling foreign exchange reserves have made the lira the worst performing emerging market currency this year, with a 23% loss. “The fact that monetary policy in Turkey is no longer politically independent seems to be cemented... that is not a good omen for the Turkish lira,” Antje Praefcke, FX and EM analyst at Commerzbank, wrote in a note. “Those market participants who had hoped for a reversal of Turkish monetary policy have increasingly little reason to do so.” Turkish sovereign dollar bonds also dropped. Broader emerging market (EM) currencies rose, with the South African rand rising 0.5% to a three-week high as a fall in the dollar offered some space to risk-driven assets. [USD/} MSCI’s index of EM currencies rose 0.3%, while stocks added 0.6%. Russian stocks hit a record high on the back of strength in oil prices, while South Africa’s main index rose 1% to a one-month high. Still, most emerging market assets were nursing steep losses from September, as rising inflation expectations and bets on policy tapering by the Federal Reserve dented appetite for risky assets. British emerging markets-focused fund manager Ashmore Group said its assets under management fell by $3.1 billion during the third quarter due to a mix of negative investment performance and institutional money managers pulling out of volatile markets. Chinese stocks ended the day lower as record-high factory gate inflation data amid weak demand in September stoked worries over the trajectory of monetary policy support. Stocks and bonds linked to the country’s property sector continued to fall, as concerns over widespread debt defaults in the sector showed no signs of easing. For GRAPHIC on emerging market FX performance in 2021, see tmsnrt.rs/2egbfVh For GRAPHIC on MSCI emerging index performance in 2021, see tmsnrt.rs/2OusNdX For TOP NEWS across emerging markets For CENTRAL EUROPE market report, see For TURKISH market report, see For RUSSIAN market report, see (Reporting by Ambar Warrick; Editing by Subhranshu Sahu) Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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