EMERGING MARKETS-Turkish lira hits new lows; geopolitics weighs on Russian rouble

  • 11/12/2021
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* Turkish central bank expected to cut rates by 100 bps next week * Geopolitics weighs on Russian, Belarusian and Ukrainian bonds * EM stocks rise for fifth straight session Nov 12 (Reuters) - Most emerging market currencies dropped on Friday as the dollar stayed at 16-month highs, with the Turkish lira hitting record lows, while geopolitical tensions and falling oil prices weighed on Russia’s rouble. The rouble lost 0.4% after U.S. officials voiced concerns over “unusual Russian military activity” near Russia’s border with Ukraine. Countries bordering Belarus warned on Thursday that the migrant crisis on the European Union’s eastern borders could escalate into a military confrontation, while Ukraine said it would deploy thousands more troops to reinforce its frontier. Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko has warned of retaliation against the European Union’s threat of more sanctions. “Such political pressures definitely affect the outlook for these currencies but such movement based on political clashes in the EU is extremely slow moving and they do not move markets as quickly as it should in comparison to tensions with the U.S,” said Cristian Maggio, head of EM strategy at TD Securities, adding there might be some negative moves towards Russian assets. Russian bonds extended falls, while Ukraine’s 2024 dollar bond hit April lows. Belarus’ 2030 dollar bond plunged to March 2020 lows. Poland’s zloty slumped to a more than seven-month low against the euro. MSCI’s index of emerging market currencies was flat after this week’s data showing U.S. inflation surged spurred bets of faster tightening by the U.S. Federal Reserve and sent the dollar sharply higher. Turkey’s lira dropped 0.8% to a new low of 9.9843, just short of the 10 dollar psychological mark. Rising inflation and expectations of a further 100 basis point rate cuts by the central bank sent the currency lower for a fourth straight session, putting it on course for a weekly drop of more than 2%. The policy rate has already been slashed by 300 basis points since September to 16%, delivering stimulus long sought by President Tayyip Erdogan. That has seen the lira lose 25% this year. EM stocks rose for a fifth straight session, up 0.4%. China Evergrande Group jumped almost 10% after it avoided default on a payment yet again. Hong Kong’s big tech names also rose between 1.6% and 2.6%. Most other bourses in Asia and elsewhere also firmed, putting the broader index on course for its best week in a month. But Russian stocks were on track to end the week down about 0.9%. It slipped 1.2% on Friday as oil companies tracked crude prices lower. For GRAPHIC on emerging market FX performance in 2021, see tmsnrt.rs/2egbfVh For GRAPHIC on MSCI emerging index performance in 2021, see tmsnrt.rs/2OusNdX For TOP NEWS across emerging markets For CENTRAL EUROPE market report, see For TURKISH market report, see For RUSSIAN market report, see Reporting by Shashank Nayar and Susan Mathew in Bengaluru; Editing by Subhranshu Sahu

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