UPDATE 1-CEE MARKETS-Crown extends gains after Czechs stun with massive rate hike

  • 11/4/2021
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(Updates with Czech cenbank decision, analyst comments, market reaction) By Anita Komuves and Jason Hovet BUDAPEST/PRAGUE, Nov 4 (Reuters) - The Czech crown extended its gains on Thursday after the central bank delivered a larger-than-expected rate hike amid soaring inflation, raising its main rate above the level last seen before the pandemic. The Czech National Bank raised its two-week repo rate by 125 basis points to 2.75%, delivering a hike that no analyts expected in a Reuters poll. The move comes after a surprise 75-basis-point hike in September. "The tightening cycle still has some way to go and the risks to our view for rates to reach 3.25% in 2022 are firmly to the upside," Liam Peach, economist at Capital Economics, wrote in a note. The crown jumped 0.3% immediately after the decision and traded 0.41% stronger on the day at 25.43 versus the euro at 1405 GMT, outperforming its regional peers, which eased. The market was pricing in a hike of about 100 basis points, a trader in Prague said, which means that "125 basis points were not that much of a surprise." "It looks like rate hikes, even those bigger than expected, do not have that much of an impact on exchange rates these days." The Polish zloty slid 0.13% to 4.6009 and was still mildly in the red for the year, failing to benefit from Wednesday"s larger-than-expected 75 basis-point interest rate hike by the central bank in Poland. Based on the "the NBP projecting inflation to remain persistently high in 2022 and 2023, we now expect a steeper and more front-loaded hiking cycle that will put the NBP on the same page with the rest of the CEE central banks," Morgan Stanley said in a note. The Hungarian forint eased 0.26% and was trading at 359.95 per euro. Central banks across Central Europe have been raising rates since June amid a strong recovery from the coronavirus pandemic to fend off a surge in inflation driven by global supply bottlenecks and local factors such as tight labour markets. CEE SNAPSHO AT MARKETS T 1505 CET CURRENC IES Latest Previous Daily Change bid close change in 2021 EURCZK= Czech EURHUF= Hungary 0 EURPLN= Polish EURRON= Romania EURHRK= Croatia EURRSD= Serbian 0 Note: calculated from 1800 daily CET change Latest Previous Daily Change close change in 2021 .PX Prague 1360.72 1353.830 +0.51% +32.48 0 % .BUX Budapes 55450.8 54914.54 +0.98% +31.69 t 1 % .WIG20 Warsaw 2435.15 2380.11 +2.31% +22.74 % .BETI Buchare 12913.5 12825.46 +0.69% +31.70 st 7 % .SBITOP Ljublja <.SBITOP 1195.87 1188.68 +0.60% +32.75 na > % .CRBEX Zagreb 2013.73 2017.34 -0.18% +15.78 % .BELEX1 Belgrad <.BELEX1 793.73 798.25 -0.57% +6.03% 5 e 5> .SOFIX Sofia 598.86 598.86 +0.00% +33.81 % Yield Yield Spread Daily (bid) change vs Bund change in Czech spread Republi c CZ2YT=R s CZ5YT=R s CZ10YT= s Poland PL2YT=R s PL5YT=R s PL10YT= s FORWARD 3x6 6x9 9x12 3M interba nk Czech 3.68 3.69 3.73 2.22 Rep Hungary 2.88 3.21 3.45 2.06 Poland 2.74 3.09 3.28 0.84 Note: are for ask FRA prices quotes ********************************************* ***************** (Editing by Subhranshu Sahu)

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