Two-year yields rise to pandemic high, curve flattens on Powell nomination

  • 11/22/2021
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NEW YORK, Nov 22 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury yields rose on Monday after President Joe Biden announced he would nominate Fed Chairman Jerome Powell to a second term while elevating Fed Governor Lael Brainard to vice chair. Powell, who was widely expected to be tapped for a second term, will helm the U.S. central bank as it begins to pull back its emergency-level support of the economy and tame inflation, which recently hit its highest levels since 1990. The two-year U.S. Treasury yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations, was up 8.5 basis points at 0.590%, its highest since early March 2020 - before the COVID-19 pandemic was declared - following a weak auction of $58 billion in notes, said Lou Brien, an analyst at DRW Trading. The Treasury also auctioned $59 billion in five-year notes in a sale that Brien characterized as "less than good," with primary dealers taking the largest percentage of the sale since February. Five-year Treasury yields rose to 1.32%, their highest level since February 2020. The rising of short-term yields suggests that the market is anticipating a more aggressive tapering move by the Fed in 2022, said Ian Lyngen, head of U.S. Rates Strategy at BMO Capital Markets. Powell"s nomination "certainly puts an earlier lift-off on the table," Lyngen added. Futures on the federal funds rate , which track short-term interest rate expectations, on Monday priced in a 100% chance of a quarter-point tightening by the Federal Reserve by June next year. The probability was at more than 90% before Biden"s announcement. Powell"s nomination "provides a little bit more legitimacy to market pricing in terms of Fed tightening next year," said Mazen Issa, senior currency strategist at TD Securities. The yield on 10-year Treasury notes was up 8.9 basis points to 1.625%. The yield on the 30-year Treasury bond was up 6.6 basis points to 1.973%. The yield curve flattened, with spreads between 5- and 30-year Treasuries tightening to their lowest levels since March 2020, while the spread between 5- and 10-year Treasuries reached to their lowest since July 2020. November 22 Monday 4:07PM New York / 2107 GMT Price Current Yield % Net Change (bps) Three-month bills !Empty value !Empty value !Empty value Six-month bills 0.07 0.071 0.008 Two-year note 99-150/256 0.5904 0.085 Three-year note 99-112/256 0.942 0.096 Five-year note 99-24/256 1.3152 0.112 Seven-year note 98-216/256 1.5514 0.113 10-year note 97-180/256 1.6253 0.089 20-year bond 99-180/256 2.0181 0.078 30-year bond 97-200/256 1.9734 0.066 DOLLAR SWAP SPREADS Last (bps) Net Change (bps) U.S. 2-year dollar swap spread 26.75 0.75 U.S. 3-year dollar swap spread 21.75 1.50 U.S. 5-year dollar swap spread 11.00 0.50 U.S. 10-year dollar swap spread 5.75 1.75 U.S. 30-year dollar swap spread -17.25 2.50 Reporting by David Randall; Editing by Will Dunham

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