FX options wrap - Elevated premiums, cen-bank risk, cheap USD hedge

  • 11/24/2021
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Continued USD gains break another EUR/USD barrier at 1.1200 and target any at USD/JPY 115.50 and GBP 1.3300. FX option implied volatility is already very high compared to late summer pandemic-era lows, and most trade a premium to historic (actual volatility) measures - especially 1-month contracts which include December"s U.S, UK and euro zone policy decisions. Those looking to hedge more USD gains will pay a high premium in this environment with its bias toward USD calls, and might consider adding knock-out barriers/triggers with their significant discounts. Still G10 FX option implied volatility doesn"t begin to come close to that of Turkish lira options amid the currency"s recent slide. One-month expiry traded 50.0 and isn"t far from record highs posted amid the 2018 lira crisis, with a 10.0 vol premium for 1-month expiry TRY puts over calls. An impending U.S. holiday may dampen activity and month end flows may weigh on the USD near term, but high implied volatility warns against complacency. . Huge Cable expiries should cap any recovery at 1.3400-10.

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