FX options wrap - Poised for action, don't bet the house, 20 billion

  • 12/14/2021
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FX option implied volatility is weighed by the current lack of actual volatility, but the risk premium attached to the impending U.S, UK and Eurozone central bank announcements is limiting overall declines and shows a market still poised for action. EUR/USD 1-week is above 8.0 and 1-month in the mid-6"s, but 1-month risk reversals have erased their longstanding downside volatility premium, which could reflect a perception that deeper near-term FX declines might prove limited. EUR/USD dealers should also be aware of huge FX option strike expiries between 1.12-1.14 - there are 20 billion euros to potentially impact near-term FX price action. GBP/USD is still struggling above 1.3200, despite strong UK jobs data released on Tuesday, with its hold to familiar ranges taking its toll on implied volatility. However, those losses are limited and protection costs remain heavily skewed to the downside. USD/JPY and AUD/USD directional premiums show more downside fear, but there is a lack of conviction in both pairs. USD/TRY options retain record highs before Thursday"s Turkish rate decision. EUR/USD FX option strikes expiries this week EUR/USD FX option strikes expiries this week 1-month expiry EUR/USD option risk reversals 1-month expiry EUR/USD option risk reversals Benchmark 1-month expiry FX option implied volatility Benchmark 1-month expiry FX option implied volatility For more click on FXBUZ Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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