LIVE MARKETS European banks: longing for 2022

  • 12/8/2021
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Dec 8 - Welcome to the home for real-time coverage of markets brought to you by Reuters reporters. You can share your thoughts with us at markets.research@thomsonreuters.com EUROPEAN BANKS: LONGING FOR 2022 (1025 EST/1525 GMT) European banks have had a stellar 2021 so far with their biggest yearly jump since 2009 when financial stocks bounced back from the abyss of the great financial crisis. The sector"s index is up a whopping 31% year-to-date, which comes just behind tech and its 32% jump. Banking stocks have been the ultimate proxy to play the reopening trade triggered by the November 2020 COVID-19 breakthrough and many investors and analysts must now wonder whether it"s time to call it a day. Not JP Morgan. "Their balance sheets are strong, the sector offers high levels of capital return, and it is trading cheaper now than at the start of the year, despite outperformance", the investment bank"s analysts write in their 2022 outlook. While they remain long on European banks, their view is also quite positive on the broad European equity market for which they believe investors should stay bullish. "We are calling for another year of positive earnings surprises, relative to current consensus estimates", they write, penciling in an upside of 13% and 16% in total returns. (Julien Ponthus) ***** U.S. STOCKS MIXED AND MODEST (1007 EST/1507 GMT) Major U.S. indexes are mixed with just modest changes in early trade on Wednesday after Pfizer and BioNTech said a three-shot course of their COVID-19 vaccine was shown to have a neutralizing effect against the new Omicron coronavirus variant in a laboratory test. In any event, the S&P 500 (.SPX), at around 4,691, continues to flirt with the 76.4%/78.6% Fibonacci retracement zone of its November 22 to December 3 decline in the 4,685.13/4,690.61 area, while the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC), at around 15,677, is still struggling with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of its November 22 to December 3 decline at 15,722.821. read more A failure to overwhelm these barriers can suggest this week"s bounce may just have been a counter-reaction in what COULD still be a developing decline. Here is where markets stand in early trade: (Terence Gabriel) ***** SUPPLY CHAINS ARE GETTING A BIT BETTER (0919 EST/1419 GMT) Supply chain bottlenecks are a big issue for financial markets as they threaten to slow down the economic recovery while boosting inflation. After some analysts a few weeks ago wondered whether the worst was over, we might use some insight from Deutsche Bank. It created a ‘bottleneck monitor’ which looks at goods moved with ships, trucks, and airplanes. “The cost of shipping has started to fall, and port congestion is improving,” Deutsche Bank analysts say, mentioning their first edition of the monitor, which focuses on the U.S. “There is also a notable easing in road haulage conditions. If this improvement persists, it would have material implications for the outlook next year,” they add. (Stefano Rebaudo) ***** NASDAQ COMPOSITE: WASHED OUT OR WATERFALL? (0900 EST/1400 GMT) Amid the Nasdaq Composite"s (.IXIC) recent weakness, one measure of internal strength collapsed to its lowest level since early-April, 2020 read more : Of note, when the Composite topped on February 19, 2020, the Nasdaq New High/New Low (NH/NL) index, which had been diverging from the IXIC at that time, stalled at 76.6%. It then took the NH/NL index 17 trading days to collapse to 12.3%. In so doing, the Composite slid about 20%. From there, the NH/NL index continued down to just 1.2% over the next six trading days, while the Composite lost another 13% into its March 23 low. Recent NH/NL action is quite similar to back then. The measure diverged into its early November highs, and then from a reading of 75.7% on November 10, it fell 17-straight trading days into its December 6 low of 12.5%. However, in a testament to the market"s current bifurcated state of mega-cap haves and smaller-cap have-nots, however, the Composite only lost 5%. read more On Tuesday, the NH/NL index ticked up to 14.8%. It now remains to be seen if the Nasdaq became sufficiently washed out, that a broad recovery can take hold. This measure certainly has room to rise, and if it can reclaim its descending 10-day moving average it may add confidence in the potential for more sustained strength under the surface. A NH/NL index violation of Tuesday"s 12.5% low can open the door for a test of its March 2020 trough. With this, however, the IXIC this time, may instead find itself going over a waterfall. read more (Terence Gabriel) ***** FOR WEDNESDAY"S LIVE MARKETS" POSTS PRIOR TO 0900 EST/1400 GMT - CLICK HERE: read more Terence Gabriel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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